FanGraphs: Don’t Crucify the Marlins for Making Smart Moves

[The_Godfather]

If the Marlins don’t spend any of the money they just saved by getting rid of Hanley Ramirez this winter, they don’t extend Giancarlo Stanton, and they turn back into a low-payroll team that lives off revenue sharing, the should absolutely be crucified for that. But they haven’t done that yet, and it’s not fair to assume that is the plan simply because that was Huizenga’s plan 15 years ago.

If the Marlins do reinvest Hanley’s money into upgrading other parts of the roster, and they do get a good return for Josh Johnson before he breaks down again, there’s a pretty good chance that the 2013 Marlins will be better than the 2012 version. I understand why you might not think Loria deserves the benefit of the doubt, but a rush to judgement isn’t any better.

100%

See I don't get it. He says 'they haven't done that yet' but...they have? Why should we at *this* point give Beinfest and this FO the benefit of the doubt that they are going to wisely spend the extra money? They have yet to shown they are very good at spending money, or making trades.

[HUGG]

Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
#brewers are ready to sell, @DKnobler says. good pieces. #greinke #aramis #krod #kottaras maybe #hart

omg they're 11th in MLB in attendance

HOW DARE THEY

[Bobbob1313]

I hope when you click on #hart on twitter, you just get a lot of people who can't spell but love "Barracuda."

[lou]

See I don't get it. He says 'they haven't done that yet' but...they have? Why should we at *this* point give Beinfest and this FO the benefit of the doubt that they are going to wisely spend the extra money? They have yet to shown they are very good at spending money, or making trades.

I don't think it's Beinfest's call, it's Lorias.

Listen, if they pocket all this saved money and put Cousins out in CF holding his dick opening day trying to get a hard on to make contact for a bunt single when he bats, I think we are all done with this organization until ownership changes. Not front office, ownership. This year is a bummer. I have to imagine the front office gets that if they don't sign some guys to show the fans things have changed, they are lost forever. This has got to be hard for them shipping out Hanley and maybe Johnson, as they know a huge uphill battle is coming.

In a perfect world, they use the say $9 million saved in 2012, and the $20 million saved by Hanley/Infante in 2013, and spend $30 million bucks on a premium CF, a 3/4 starter, and help at 2B/3B (wherever Bonifacio isn't) and LF (to help Ruggiano). They do that and buy out Stanton, team looks great in April and fans should be happy.

[Namaste]

I don't think it's Beinfest's call, it's Lorias.

Listen, if they pocket all this saved money and put Cousins out in CF holding his dick opening day trying to get a hard on to make contact for a bunt single when he bats, I think we are all done with this organization until ownership changes. Not front office, ownership. This year is a bummer. I have to imagine the front office gets that if they don't sign some guys to show the fans things have changed, they are lost forever. This has got to be hard for them shipping out Hanley and maybe Johnson, as they know a huge uphill battle is coming.

In a perfect world, they use the say $9 million saved in 2012, and the $20 million saved by Hanley/Infante in 2013, and spend $30 million bucks on a premium CF, a 3/4 starter, and help at 2B/3B (wherever Bonifacio isn't) and LF (to help Ruggiano). They do that and buy out Stanton, team looks great in April and fans should be happy.

Well said.

Lou, if you were Loria/Larry, what would you do with Bell?

Short term and long term.

[lou]

Pray for a rebound.

With Hanley off the books, Bell's contract really isn't an impediment to doing anything in free agency. They have a shitload of open payroll in 2013 with Hanley and Infante gone. In 2014, they drop $30 million off payroll with Johnson, Nolasco, and Buck, but gain probably around $25 million in payroll with increases to Reyes, Buehrle, Stanton, Morrison, and Bonifacio. But, with presumably Yelich, Fernandez/Conley/C. James, Brantly/Realmuto, and maybe more all coming in and filling the other holes, team would realistically only be looking for a veteran platoon catcher (cheap), veteran 2B/3B starter (probably pretty cheap), and a 1 year veteran # 3/4 SP to come in (significant short term expenditure). It'll be tight in 2014 and some sacrifice will have to be made with that fat fuck still there, but it's not insurmountable.

So, pray for a rebound. That's what I'd do. But if someone wants him, I'd personally eat half the contract and be happy there is an extra $5 million to spend in 13 and 14 as they can replace 60 IP internally.
--------------------
Let's look methodically

2013
C John Buck $6,500,000
1B Logan Morrison $515,000
2B Emilio Bonifacio $2,750,000 Arb1 Projection
3B
SS Jose Reyes $10,000,000
LF
CF
RF Mike Stanton $550,000
B Gaby Sanchez $550,000
B Greg Dobbs $1,600,000
B Brett Hayes $750,000 Arb1 Projection
B Justin Ruggiano $550,000
B Solano/25th Man $515,000

SP Josh Johnson $13,750,000
SP Mark Buerhle $12,000,000
SP Ricky Nolasco $11,500,000
SP
SP Jacob Turner $1,175,000
RP Heath Bell $10,000,000
RP Steve Cishek $515,000
RP Nathan Eovaldi $515,000
RP Edward Mujica $2,250,000 Arb2 Projection
RP Ryan Webb $650,000 Arb1 Projection
RP Mike Dunn $515,000
RP LeBlanc/Jennings $515,000

$77,665,000
--------------------
So yes, I am putting Eovaldi in Pen. Yes I know he could probably be the 4-5 with Turner, but humor me into putting my own scenario.

So there is literally 4 spots on the team.

LF - Doesn't matter. Cheap veteran platoon guy to play with Ruggiano, Gaby (lomo shifts 1B). This position has hope for production as I will bank on Gaby doing something in future , Ruggiano hitting .260, and a veteran chipping in. I'm putting this at $1.335 million to make it easy.

CF - I think there is no doubt they go hard after BJ/Bourn/Victorino/Melky. Hamilton is a nit to pricy. Who cares. Let's say year one of deal is $11 million. This is probably a 5/$50-70 type deal, unless Victorino who would be much much less and has to be "option 4"

We're at $90.

SP4 - They get some # 3/4 type starting pitcher for around $8 million bucks. I'm not sure if this is a 1-3 year deal, but all work.

2B/3B - Got massive issues. There is nothing good in free agency, so this is going to be scary as shit. Whatever veteran they get is going to Greg Dobbs level, so this is going to be an interesting 8 hole hitting of a crazy lower veteran/Dobbs/Solano platoon. There is nothing they can do in free agency that is a great situation. This is why it might be a good idea to trade JJ, but we're keeping him so who cares. $2 million

$100 million payroll, is less money then what has been saved through Hanley/Infante/Anibal/Choate salary off books 2012/2013.

I don't think anyone complains on that team opening day 2013.
--------------------
So long story short, Heath Bell, means dick to 2013. Pray for the rebound.
--------------------
2014
C Brantly/Realmuto $515,000
1B Logan Morrison $2,750,000 Arb1 projection
2B Emilio Bonifacio $4,250,000 Arb 3 prohection
3B
SS Jose Reyes $16,000,000
LF Christian Yelich $515,000
CF Bourn/BJ/Melky $13,000,000 < - Adding because I think this is realistically coming
RF Mike Stanton $6,000,000 Arb1 projection
B Justin Ruggiano $1,250,000 Arb1 projection
B
B Veteran Catcher $1,500,000 < - Will need a veteran to help kids
B Helms/Dobbs Replacement $1,500,000 < - They always spend on this
B Solano/25th Man $515,000

SP Mark Buerhle $18,000,000
SP
SP Jacob Turner $2,000,000 < - Guessing payroll, but it moves up and wouldn't be huge
SP Jose Fernandez $515,000
SP
RP Heath Bell $10,000,000
RP Steve Cishek $1,000,000 Super2
RP Nathan Eovaldi $550,000
RP Mike Dunn $750,000 Arb1 projection
RP Adam Conley $515,000 < - Humor me with him and Eovaldi in bullpen
RP Ryan Webb $1,200,000 Arb2 projection
RP Pick your favorite RP $515,000 < - They will spend on 7th RP slot to have option guys to move up and down

$82,840,000

So Bell is a little scarier now.

And there is where "are they going to keep Johnson" raises some issues. Johnson, would hypothetically eat all of this payroll up if we're playing with "$100" as a magic number. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Maybe Chad James/Brad Hand/Nathan Eovaldi/Adam Conley turn into a legitimate 5th SP, and if it's one of the later two, just put someone else cheap in the bullpen that cures SP5. The last bench slot who cares, and yea there is a black hole at 3B still, but at least we still have Johnson. I think that's fair.

Alternatively, say that "SP3/4" guy I projected for 2013 goes onto 2014 payroll instead for around $8 million, bench is still whatever, they'd have around $10 million to sign a 2B/3B and a SP5, like Zambrano type for a 5 which is more than acceptable.

Top 2B/3B for free agency 2014, Martin Prado far and away best, next best 4... Omar Infante, Aaron Hill, probably Mark fucking Reynolds, and there is... Albert Callaspo? Yea, fucking gross.

But either of those teams makes sense.

All in on Johnson, count on youth for SP5 and skimp and pray to god on 3B, or spread the cash around a little and get two starting pitchers and I guess one of those 2B/3B types.

All fits in $100 million, with Bell.
--------------------
So like I said, they can do it with Bell, signing realistic free agents, and keeping Johnson even longterm, but it would probably be a lot easier to ditch even half of Bell's contract, use the minor depth for bullpen, and use that Bell money for more important things.
--------------------
Additionally, this is also a VERY strong argument to trade Johnson for Olt and not have to deal with 2B/3B. Absolutely nothing, nothing, is coming onto free agency in 2 years and he is the only trade chip. Tons of pitching is available, and god willingly all the kids in farm develop so that's not an issue

[Swifty]

Hang that 2014 banner next to 2008, 2009, and 2010, boys.

[lou]

2015
C Brantly/Realmuto $515,000
1B Logan Morrison $4,500,000 Arb2 Projection
2B
3B
SS Jose Reyes $22,000,000
LF Christian Yelich $515,000
CF Bourn/BJ/Melky $14,000,000 < - Only FA deal throwing in
RF Mike Stanton $9,500,000 Arb2 Projection (this is buyout prices)
B
B
B Veteran Catcher $1,500,000
B Helms/Dobbs Replacement $1,500,000
B 25th Man $515,000

SP Mark Buerhle $19,000,000
SP Jacob Turner $2,500,000
SP Jose Fernandez $515,000
SP
SP Andrew Heaney $515,000
RP Steve Cishek $2,000,000 Arb1 post super2
RP Nathan Eovaldi $1,250,000 super2
RP Mike Dunn $1,250,000 Arb2 Projection
RP Adam Conley $515,000
RP
RP Pick your favorite RP $515,000
RP Pick your favorite RP $515,000

$83,120,000

So it's really post Bell where it becomes crazy as the Jose Reyes and Mike Stanton bombs start seriously jacking payroll. Again, they can afford Johnson, skimp on rest of bench and pen which is probably more than adequate because they always do that, but holy fuck are they going to need a 2B/3B moving forward and there is nothing in the farm coming up. This is a long fucking way away, but still. There isn't a prospect in A ball that we can even argumentatively project here.

Scenario A - Signing Johnson, totallying skimping on stuff unless payroll is jacked well past $100 million.

Scenario B - Trade Johnson, Olt is club controlled, bullpen looks better with other prospects received from Texas, let's say they have a #3/4 SP around $8 million a year, and use $10 million to shore up 2B/3B

Impossible to know which is better. Both I see both very strong arguments. Ace, or more parts.

[HUGG]

Hang that 2014 banner next to 2008, 2009, and 2010, boys.

trollin' trollin' trollin'

[Bobbob1313]

Hang that 2014 banner next to 2008, 2009, and 2010, boys.

Clearly, the correct answer to our current problems is trading for John Lackey, though.

[HUGG]

STOP HURTING THE BRAND BOBBOB

[lou]

Hang that 2014 banner next to 2008, 2009, and 2010, boys.

I'm sorry I am outlaying a rational 3 year salary outlay for the franchise based off the team just shedding massive levels of payroll.

The entire last 2 days is JOHNSON OMG. Well, now look at it. Those teams are relatively going to be the same moving forward. Maybe I am wrong about the center field purchase, but I really really think it's coming. Other than that, it is what it is with the organizational assets.

Based on raw data, and using $100 million as a baseline, I think it's a smart question, do they keep Johnson, or is it better moving forward over the next 3 years to get a stud calibre 3B like Olt, more pitching depth, and "salary relief" through being able to sign a #3/4 on a 3 year deal, and use extra funds to patch holes elsewhere on the team.

It's a tough question. Ace, or young 3B/flexibility (again another assumption, I feel they only trade JJ for a 3B package, or I guess an amazing 2B could work too, but yea).

[Omar]

I don't think it's Beinfest's call, it's Lorias.

Listen, if they pocket all this saved money and put Cousins out in CF holding his dick opening day trying to get a hard on to make contact for a bunt single when he bats, I think we are all done with this organization until ownership changes. Not front office, ownership. This year is a bummer. I have to imagine the front office gets that if they don't sign some guys to show the fans things have changed, they are lost forever. This has got to be hard for them shipping out Hanley and maybe Johnson, as they know a huge uphill battle is coming.

In a perfect world, they use the say $9 million saved in 2012, and the $20 million saved by Hanley/Infante in 2013, and spend $30 million bucks on a premium CF, a 3/4 starter, and help at 2B/3B (wherever Bonifacio isn't) and LF (to help Ruggiano). They do that and buy out Stanton, team looks great in April and fans should be happy.

100% agree with this post. After last offseason, I'm willing to give the front office the benefit of the doubt. But if we don't bring anyone in this offseason, season ticket renewal will definitely be out the window and I'm not sure I'd ever have faith in Loria/Samson/Beinfest again.

[HUGG]

But on the flipside, if we spend the money stupidly just to spend it, I think that's even worse.

Like if my options are give BJ Upton 13 million a year or save money for a 2014 FA, I'd rather do the latter.


Because BJ Upton isn't very good.

[Mainge]

Clearly, the correct answer to our current problems is trading for John Lackey, though.

Is that when the Red Sox were supposed to pay $70M+ for two seasons of John Buck.