Buster Olney: Every Player Available, Even Stanton

[Namaste]

Well, yeah.

[Bobbob1313]

In JJs case, he's had had a handful of terrible starts after being close to flawless on the mound for three years. He may not be at the peak of his value but he's close.

It's kind of impressive how overlooked it was that he turned his season around.

[dim]

Olney's tweet is probably a huge overstatement. I'm sure when they say every player is available, it means if some team blows them away they can't say no. It's more likely that the key players that will be available if we're in sell mode will be Infante, Sanchez, and Choate.

Sanchez would be the one player that would net us a really nice return. Starting pitchers are always at a premium during the trade deadline.

[Swifty]

My thoughts:

"Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Johnson, and Omar Infante" which one is not like the others...?

Considering the rumor mill is saying that the market for Greinke is soft, can we really expect a sell off to do much to change things? Next year's going to have a lot of bad salary on the books and Anibal probably doesn't change much. If we're all about 2014 (and, for the record, I think that's what we need to play for at this point) you'll have a lot of expensive expiring deals (JJ, Hanley, Bell) to let you "go" for it and then still kind of blow it up if need be.

After next season, Infante, Buck, and Nolasco free up approximately $21 million. Assuming the Marlins do the smart thing and extend Stanton, there won't be an arbitration number breaking the bank, so that's a decent amount of cash to have freed up, and there'll be approximately $40 million freed up the next offseason with JJ/Hanley/Bell. I think the salary structure is timed reasonably well enough to give us some flexibility in the short term (though next year we're screwed). I'm not a huge fan of dealing guys like JJ for the sake of dealing.

In a perfect world, we can move one of Ricky or Buck (lol) and expedite the rebuild, but even then neither of those guys has a 2013 salary that would let us shop for the power bat we need, it'd have to be some combination of them and Infante. And Ricky's kind of coming around, at least to the extent that he's kind of worth his salary now and with one year left on his deal his worth to us in 2013 is probably greater here than what he'd return in trade. If someone wants Infante, then I think you try to trade Nolasco and free up some cash to be a free agency player, but even then $13 million per season isn't going to get you Greinke or Hamels, and neither guy will bring back the 'A' prospect, so what's the point?

[Metes]

Well, yeah.

BOBBOB'D

[lou]

The talk is that we are calling around about Ricky Nolasco,Omar Infante,Greg Dobbs,Randy Choate,Gaby Sanchez,Chris Coghlan to gauge the market on them

I wonder if someone would eat Nolasco's contract ($11.5 next year) if they trade out Hanley, ala Beckett/Lowell. Send Hanley and Nolasco to the Dodgers who want to make a run and have the new ownership group, take back two relatively good prospects, and Coletti might hit a jackpot if Hanley decides he wants to play baseball again. Big statement. Everyone hates him here and he does suck a lot lately, so what's the sense in keeping him? I mean, really.

They could easily move Infante, Dobbs and Choate for good young relievers, and who cares about the other two.

If they could ditch Hanley in addition to those guys you mention, that clears $31 million off 2013 payroll, $16 million off 2014 payroll, and probably another $8-9 of 2012 payroll. Let's say, that clears around $55 million bucks. Big money.

I would think they keep Anibal and get the draft pick unless someone offers them something at least as good as what a "top 40" draft pick would do to the system.

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So all said and done, they probably had a legit $5-10 million in extra payroll for 2013, so adding that to what's saved for next year (assuming they would try to build the team again. I take it they aren't just going to give up with the new stadium), they'd have $35-40 million to spend on 2013 and would need to get two starters for 2B/3B/CF (wherever Bonifacio is not), two bench bats one of whom could platoon in LF with Ruggiano/Cousins/waiting for Yelich mid season (gotta think he is on fast track now), and let's say two starting pitchers, as they will likely promote a LeBlanc/Sanabia/Hand to the 5. Rest of the spots should be pretty set.

Starter market is solid, so I find it likely they could find someone on a 3/$36 deal to replace Anibal, find a Zambrano # 4 starter on a 1-2 year deal for $5-6 a year, and then have some solid change to pick up one of the big time CF (Bourn, Melky, BJ, Victorino) on a deal that pays around $10-12 a year, and there is still around $5-8 million to get 3 veteran bats to fill out the team.

This team, on paper, makes as much, probably less than 2012 team, and doesn't ruin books moving forward

C - Buck, Hayes
1B - Morrison, "Veteran Dobbs Replacement"
2B - Bonifacio, Solano/25th Man
SS - Reyes
3B - "Veteran Infielder," "Another Veteran Infielder"
LF - "Veteran OF," Ruggiano
CF - BJ/Bourn/Melky/Victorino
RF - Stanton

SP - Johnson, Buerhle, "10-12 million a year starter like marcum/mccarthy," "$5 mil a year starter, like Zambrano/Pavano/Westbrook," internal 5th SP leblanc/sanabia/hand

RP - Bell, Cishek, Webb, Dunn, Jennings, and 2 more whoevers

Minors starting year - Yelich (AA), James (AA), Realmuto (AA), Fernandez (A+), Conley (A+), Heaney (A), having a few more guys from hypothetical Hanley/Nolasco/Infante/Choate/Dobbs moves, and have a good first rounder and a comp pick for Anibal in 2013 draft.

I'd be happy. If Hanley ain't gonna be "Hanley," I think attaching Nolasco's salary to him in a dump opens up the door to lock down a super fucking legit longterm outfield (once Yelich is up), get Bonifacio to 2B which is huge, and then just figure out WTF to do with C and 3B longterm. The pitching should all be there short and longterm as they could afford to keep JJ post 2013 combining his salary with "2013 4th starters" salary, and then promoting from within again in 2014 from James/Fernandez/Conley/Heaney foursome.

Anyways, works on paper. They could dumb and 'rebuild' very quickly for 2013. Would just take big CF and SP signings, and then filling in 3-5 veterans for back of rotation, platoon/bench spots.
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In a perfect world, we can move one of Ricky or Buck (lol) and expedite the rebuild, but even then neither of those guys has a 2013 salary that would let us shop for the power bat we need, it'd have to be some combination of them and Infante. And Ricky's kind of coming around, at least to the extent that he's kind of worth his salary now and with one year left on his deal his worth to us in 2013 is probably greater here than what he'd return in trade. If someone wants Infante, then I think you try to trade Nolasco and free up some cash to be a free agency player, but even then $13 million per season isn't going to get you Greinke or Hamels, and neither guy will bring back the 'A' prospect, so what's the point?

You typed this while I was typing the big reply, but I think this is the right idea of getting rid of Nolasco. It's only a year on the books for 2013, but they could use that cash "much smarter" through acquiring a young free agent CF and a middle of rotation starter. Attaching Nolasco to Hanley will create a maximum value situation for Ricky. Someone will go for Hanley and hope for a rebound and would take on Nolasco's salary. Kind of like Lowell and Dontrelle. Someone will suck it up for a year.

Buck... good luck. But that would be great.

[Jorge18]

The only guy I'd like to see moved is Hanley. Tired of waiting on him. Time to move on.

[Chewford]

The only guy I'd like to see moved is Hanley. Tired of waiting on him. Time to move on.

[MiamiHomer]

Josh Friedman @Friedo790
Of the several MLB scouts I recently talked to, none ranked Josh Johnson CURRENTLY higher than a number 3 starter. Might return to a 1.

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[Chewford]

It'd be kinda silly to sell Johnson when his value is lower than what he is capable of.

[Mainge]

It'd be kinda silly to sell Johnson when his value is lower than what he is capable of.

It's been a handful of bad starts.

[Bobbob1313]

It's been a handful of bad starts.

I think it can be a handful of bad starts and also have his value be lower than it should be on the market.

[MiamiHomer]

Josh Friedman @Friedo790
Scouts say Josh Johnson's slider isn't as consistent as it once was and lacks the bite it once had. #Marlins

Josh Friedman @Friedo790
Scouts also say Josh Johnson's drop in velocity means there is less of a difference between his fastball and changeup. He must slow his CU.

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[dim]

Yeah, this is about as low as JJ's value can get. He's got some time left on his current contract. I'd like to see if he can return to some of what made him so great the last few years than dump him for a return that won't match what JJ could possibly give us. Same sort of thing applies to Ramirez, although if we could get a true all star caliber third baseman type or catcher somehow in return for Hanley, I'm all for listening at the least.

I'm still holding firm that the main tradeable players this trade deadline are Anibal, Choate, and Infante. Nolasco could be a part of that list, but his contract isn't too friendly this year. I don't see the Marlins front office being willing to trade Hanley or JJ. Stanton's not gonna even be considered, so no point of even going over that scenario.

[Bobbob1313]

...

What's cool about that is that Johnson's velocity actually dropped more from '10 to '11 than '11 to '12.
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Johnson's swinging strike % is higher this season than last. It is in line with '08 & '09. It is just lower than the flukey '10 season.