At the Midway Point. Worse Signing, Reyes or Bell ?

[Swifty]

Oh, you're doing a thing again. OK, cool.

Bell's contract is a lot worse because $27 million over the course of it is a lot worse than $106 million when our owner is worth $500 million and probably can't afford the team he put together without overwhelming support (which we haven't had) or a tremendous windfall (which he may have had, Orange Bowl cocaine money and all), all evinced by the significant backloading of all contracts. Worst case scenario, we eat Heath Bell and the $18 million he's owed in 2013-14 to keep him from the games finished bonus. Reyes, we're going to owe him $96 million after this year. $96 million!

[Mainge]

This is fucking stupid.
--------------------
All of it.
--------------------
I fucking love that Swift agrees with tr305
--------------------
This isn't a thing.

[Bobbob1313]

Oh, you're doing a thing again. OK, cool.

Bell's contract is a lot worse because $27 million over the course of it is a lot worse than $106 million when our owner is worth $500 million and probably can't afford the team he put together without overwhelming support (which we haven't had) or a tremendous windfall (which he may have had, Orange Bowl cocaine money and all), all evinced by the significant backloading of all contracts. Worst case scenario, we eat Heath Bell and the $18 million he's owed in 2013-14 to keep him from the games finished bonus. Reyes, we're going to owe him $96 million after this year. $96 million!

I wasn't doing "a thing." I was responding to you completely misrepresenting the opinion I laid out. Sorry if that is dragging down the level of discourse on the board, somehow. I know that's a big concern for the admins lately.

-------

One of the two players actually has a chance to live up to his contract; there are explanations for Reyes' relative lack of success and reasons to think he will improve.

You cannot say the same for Bell. Right now, he looks like an absolute lost cause.

So if we're asking about which one is the worst contract, one guy looks like a much better bet to provide any sort of value on his contract. He is also 7 years younger.

[Mainge]

Late night hit & run Swift, ladies and gentlemen.

[Anonymous]

How do people feel about Jose's defense? Advanced fielding metrics say he's bad so far but I know some people like Mainge don't like to go by that. Anyway, if you feel he's a positive defender that should factor in with his play.

[Bobbob1313]

I think it's fair to say he's been worse than expected so far.

[Party]

With their performances thus far, both contracts look terrible. Reyes' has a longer evaluation period before you can consider it a dud. I expected him to deliver a majority of the value upfront in the first three years with the last three being decline years. If he finishes this season with what he's done to this point, that's 1/3 of his productive years gone. That is concerning and I'm not going to argue thread title semantics to avoid the discussion.

On a scale between full panic and cool confidence I'm at guarded optimism. Namaste can convert that to his scale which is probably more accepted by the scientific community.

But long term if he doesn't pick it up, this contract is going to cripple the franchise. The average MLB franchise can somewhat hide $9 million a year (hello depreciation). $22 million, which starts in year three of the contract IIRC, would set this franchise back a decade.

[Swifty]

What's really troubling in this discussion is that, last offseason when I said we needed to rid Buck by any means necessary, the universal response was that he's so bad he has to improve simply because you can't be that bad two years in a row, and owing him $16 million (on a contract to pay him $21) to be bad isn't terrible because that's the going rate for someone of his position with what we'd assume to be his abilities.

Now, $18 million remaining for a bad closer on a contract that guarantees him $27 million (but could pay him $36) is a bad contract and $106 million guaranteed to a singles hitter is fine and dandy? Moreover, by the Buck logic applied last offseason, being so LOL bad is kind of where we are with Heath Bell. Relievers are pretty volatile, he's almost certainly going to be better next year, simply because he - and I mean this quite literally - cannot be any worse. But now, since it means "we" have to agree with tr305, we won't use that logic again.

I really loathe that kind of inconsistency. Bobbob has articulated it well, that I thought we were getting "a rich man's Emilio Bonifacio" (his words, not mine, though I wish they were mine since they sum up my position perfectly) in Jose Reyes. I recall having extensive discussions dismissed with "Swifty ladies and gentlemen" when I said that if we felt the need for a leadoff hitter Pierre could give us the same kind of stuff for a hell of a lot less. I never felt we "needed" a position (since Bonifacio could play all over and his 2011 meant he earned itself a full season in 2012 to see if it was a fluke). We certainly needed a starting pitcher (hence Buehrle) but Reyes was a luxury. Make no mistake, I still love what he represents, in theory, but I hated the signing at the time because it was a silly luxury price paid for a horrifically overrated player and now, simply because what's remaining is so long and onerous, it's fine because he still has plenty of time to make good? That's defeatist logic.

[MiamiHomer]

Yes, getting mad at the Reyes signing just halfway into his first season is pretty dumb if you ask me especially when looking at the numbers and figuring he's been pretty unlucky this season. He is posting his best BB% of his career as well. I can't help but think if guys like Hanley, LoMo and Gaby were performing to what was expected that this discussion of Reyes' contract wouldn't even exist.

[Bobbob1313]

For the six years prior to joining the Marlins, Jose Reyes averaged 3.8 WAR and an .812 OPS.

Calling him a "singles hitter" and "a rich man's Bonifacio" is just stupid. There's really no other way to put it.

Bonifacio's career OPS was .676 entering this season.

His worst OPS over the last six years was a .750. That is Bonifacio's best.
Reyes' worst WAR in a full season was a 2.2 over 133 games. Bonifacio's best was a 2.4 in 152 games.

Over the last six seasons, Juan Pierre has a .686 OPS. Last season, he stole 27 bases and was caught stealing 17 times.

You're saying stupid things.

[Jay]

For all you Reyes haters. All numbers taken off fangraphs.
BB% is up 2.8 from his career.
K% is down 1.5 from his career.
ISO is down .032 from his career.
BABIP is down .028 from his career.
OBP is down .004 from his career.
SLG is down .058 from his career.
LD% is up 2.9 from his career.
GB% is up 3.7 from his career.
FB% is down 6.6 from his career.
Spd is down 1.3 but still above 7.
Really you're going to bitch about those numbers? Are you all a bunch of idiots? Guy is being paid to get on base; he has basically been himself looking at that. His asset is speed meaning he should be putting the ball on the ground. He is walking more; striking out less. And he's hitting more liners. I'd rather not see him hit fly balls. He's been unlucky about balls dropping for hits. So really unless you are bitching about him not hitting for power, you are being dumb. And if you are bitching about him not hitting for power, you clearly do not understand the game of baseball.
--------------------
I'm more excited for the Reyes signing because of the numbers he is posting now. Statistics tend to balance out when all is said and done. And considering some of the team decided they would like to play with their heads in their asses, I'd rather Reyes be unlucky now and lucky in the future. The only thing that concerns me is his him getting slower as the contract progresses but the fact that he's walking more makes it much less scary.

I just checked Buehrle's numbers to see which signing looks better to me thus far. Guy is posting the best BB/9 of his career. And because of that his best K/BB. He's probably on pace to have his second best season of his career (best being 2005). Definitely the better looking signing as of now and in the off season. We'll see how it ends.

Also looked up Bell's stats for laughs. His BABIP is 54 points over his career average. So he is getting somewhat unlucky but he's been fucking atrocious. Guy simply cannot find the strike zone.

[Namaste]

I want whatever Swift has been smoking this week.

You had to be trolling (or giggling) when you were typing the "Reyes is a worse signing than Bell" post.


Commmmmmmmmmmoooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

[Anonymous]

Jose Reyes's contract also compares well with Tulowitzki's and Jeter's contracts. He's making a little more than Jeter but less than Tulowitzki if you average out the salary per year. That sounds about right.

[Bobbob1313]

Now, $18 million remaining for a bad closer on a contract that guarantees him $27 million (but could pay him $36) is a bad contract and $106 million guaranteed to a singles hitter is fine and dandy? Moreover, by the Buck logic applied last offseason, being so LOL bad is kind of where we are with Heath Bell. Relievers are pretty volatile, he's almost certainly going to be better next year, simply because he - and I mean this quite literally - cannot be any worse. But now, since it means "we" have to agree with tr305, we won't use that logic again.

Also, no.

In the offseason, I was saying we should not have signed a closer at all. Now we signed a closer who has become the worst pitcher in baseball.

I didn't necessarily want Bell to begin with. Closers very rarely actually produce to their contracts.

Has nothing to do with tr305.

[Erick]

The funny thing about this terrible season so far is that we're probably optimistic (and I've been rather pessimistic about them for awhile now) right now if Heath Bell cut his attrociousness in half.

The answer to this question is easily Heath Bell.

As for the John Buck analogy, you're not taking replacements into account. You get rid of John Buck "by any means necessary" and every other catcher in the system sucks even more.