Can Hanley Be Elite Again?

[Todd]

#2 in the programs is having a 2nd mediocre year in a row. Granted, his OBP and SLG are both higher than last year, they are still 40 and 60 points, respectively, off his career averages. His K rate is up to 21%, off his career average of 18%. His career BABIP is .340, this year its .294. One promising sign is that his BB rate is pretty much the same as always. That just means there is some other, underlying, problem.

Is the stress of being the centerpiece of a franchise just too much for Hanley? Has he just forgotten how to hit at an elite level? Are nagging injuries/concern over reinjury forcing him to negatively adjust his plate approach? Was he just a damn lucky hitter for the first 5 years of his career?

[Anonymous]

It's pretty hard to say he was lucky for the first 5 seasons of his career.

I think at this point, he is who he is. He will probably be a .800 OPS player or close but never an elite hitter.

[Mainge]

Interestingly enough, he's kind of fallen back in line with his minor league numbers.

I wouldn't say he was lucky but maybe there some change that we made as an organization or that a hitting instructor made when he was shipped here, that he's gotten away from? I'm still of the belief that he leg kick needs to be cut.

[emkayseven]

I agree with what Mainge said. He wasn't lucky his first 5 years. The bottom line is, as Bill James has written a player's prime is usually more in the 23-27 range rather than the 27-32 range that's commonly thought of. We may have seen Hanley's prime.

I also seem recall - though someone correct me if I'm wrong or find evidence to support me if I'm right - that there was talk about how Hanley was adding bulk before the 2009 season to add to his home run totals since he was moving to 3rd in the lineup. I remember here that we were marveling at how big he got and he added something like 25 pounds of muscle. Obviously 2009 was a monster year but it's possible that after that year his focus shifted to trying to be "the man" on the team. I've just never seen someone's XBHs drop off like his have. His GB% is up from where it was/should be. He's an enigma, but I see him as an .800 OPS guy and not what he used to be.

[Bobbob1313]

I don't see how the bulk would have not affected him for a season and then affected him after that. Seems like there simply has to be another answer.

[Erick]

He's swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone this year.

He's also either: a) lost speed or b) stopped hustling.

As things stand, his power #'s are right along the lines of what should've been expected.

The reason why people are disappointed is because of his batting average.

-More strikeouts (probably due to swinging at more bad pitches)
-Lack of infield hits (he's not legging out as many infield hits the past two years).

If his IFH% was more toward his career norms, I don't think people would have much of a problem with his #'s. They wouldn't be elite but they'd be exactly what was expected I think.

I don't know what the reason is for the lack of IFH's the last two years. His baserunning, in general, has been worse according to fangraphs the past two years, as well.

[Bobbob1313]

If his IFH% was more toward his career norm (9.1% instead of 6.3%), he would have maybe 2 extra infield hits. If he had two extra infield hits, he would be hitting roughly .265/.345/.455.

I don't think that's it.

[Erick]

If his IFH% was more toward his career norm (9.1% instead of 6.3%), he would have maybe 2 extra infield hits. If he had two extra infield hits, he would be hitting roughly .265/.345/.455.

I don't think that's it.

It's probably a reach, but that would put his current .OPS at .800.

He's also striking out more as was mentioned.

[Bobbob1313]

I like to think people wouldn't be happier with him because he had two extra hits over the course of 70 games, but maybe.

[Swifty]

Yes, but not with Marlins Park the way it's currently constructed. David Wright looked more done than Hanley now when Citi opened and he's back to 2008 David Wright. The park is absolutely affecting the hitters. Mental blocks, man.

[Mainge]

Yes, but not with Marlins Park the way it's currently constructed. David Wright looked more done than Hanley now when Citi opened and he's back to 2008 David Wright. The park is absolutely affecting the hitters. Mental blocks, man.

Home OPS: .895
Away OPS: .642

[Anonymous]

Lol.

[Bobbob1313]

Home OPS: .895
Away OPS: .642

Team Home OPS: .733
Team Away OPS: .638

Man.

[Namaste]

Mental blocks, boys

[Bobbob1313]

Not boys. Men.