Larry Beinfest's Future with the Marlins

[Beef]

I think that you think that he is a bad drafter.

[Jay]

I think that you can randomly draft players and have as good a chance to end with the best crop of players.

[lou]

This is the longest playoff drought in franchise history and one of the five or six longest active streaks in the league. Not good pedigree for one the longest tenured GMs/Presidents in baseball not counting his days in Montreal. At some point, you have to say "okay you've done just enough to keep your job, but it's better if we just move on."

I don't necessarily completely disagree with your post, I'm just playing the opposite for the sake of debate as I don't think criticism is unwarranted of Beinfest it's just a bit overboard. But at the same time can't this explain a lot of it.

2012: $101,628,000
2011: $ 57,695,000
2010: $ 47,429,719
2009: $ 36,834,000
2008: $ 21,811,500
2007: $ 30,507,000
2006: $ 14,998,500
2005: $ 60,408,834
2004: $ 42,143,042
2003: $ 45,050,000

It's a broken record. I know. But I mean, 06-09 = 2012's payroll. That's really incredible. And that is just payroll and doesn't show the situation of how "money" changed their draft strategies and how they may have passed on players because of that. We'll never know, but I think it's fair to say his hands were forced a bit.

I just have a hard time blaming Beinfest on "the drought" for the X years they haven't made the playoffs. It's hard to give him a free pass, but I don't think any GM in baseball turns those teams into legitimate contenders.

I've been saying for 2 years now, we'll really get to see how he is after 2-3 years with the payroll constraints off. I don't think 3 months with this stadium proves either way he is the right guy for the job.

I think he gets this year, next offseason, and if they aren't contending at the trade deadline 2013 the axe falls.

[Erick]

To be fair, we're probably going to see a lot of the same players next year.

I'm actually missing the days when we spent no money because now we're stuck with some bad contracts.

[lou]

To be fair, we're probably going to see a lot of the same players next year.

I'm actually missing the days when we spent no money because now we're stuck with some bad contracts.

I think the team is in pretty good shape with payroll. None of the contracts are going to prevent them from doing anything they want moving forward, except 2014 a little bit.

2013 - Buck, Morrison, Infante, Reyes, Hanley, Stanton, Ruggiano, Hayes, Dobbs, 'Solano' (25th man), Johnson, Buerhle, Nolasco, C. James/B. Hand/Sanabia (5th SP), Bell, Cishek, Dunn, Webb, LeBlanc is 19 guys for approximately $90 million. What's missing?

LF, CF, Bench Bat, SP, RP, RP

First, Bonifacio hits arbitration so let's throw him in at $2.5 which is fair. We'll say that covers an outfield spot. I think it's safe to say they will sign/promote under $1 million players for the last bench, and two last pen spots, so let's say those 3 spots cumulatively are another $2.5 million to make it easy. That's $95 million for 23 spots.

Payroll is going to be around $104 this year once Oviedo is back, so if they match payroll next year (which i think is a given), they have let's say $10 million bucks to sign a veteran outfielder for a year and a starting pitcher. They know what they are doing, that's why they were on Cespedes for around $5-6 a year, knowing that is pretty much half their budget to fix their two problems for 2013. Overall, I think this is pretty good and very doable, and that's a pretty good team on paper. Can they sign Hamels? No. But I'm not complaining about payroll with things like that. This team was built to live/die with Hanley, Johnson, Nolasco, Reyes, and Buerhle. You can disagree those aren't a solid 5 to build a championship team around, but I personally think that is a sufficient enough core to win with, when Hanley is hitting. He isn't, and that just sucks for the team and us.

Also important to note for 2013, probably will get Type A for Anibal so that should set up a nice draft. He is to costly to keep around.

2014 - Morrison (arb 1), Bonifacio (starting 2B, arb 3), Reyes, Hanley, Yelich (LF), Stanton (arb 1), Hayes (arb 2), Ruggiano/Cousins/Controlled OF, Solano/25th man, Buerhle, C. James/Hand, Bell, Cishek, Dunn (arb 1), LeBlanc (arb 1), '7th RP promoted from system' - that is 16 guys for approx. $78 million (over budgeting Stanton's arbitration so could be closer to $75-76). What's missing?

C, CF, Bench Bat, Bench Bat, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, and around $25-30 million to spend on it.

Let's relatively ignore the farm. I've only included Yelich and C. James/Hand above as surefire starters which I think is fair, and I don't think anyone objects to loosely projecting the bench/bullpen which is interchangeable. Fernandez, Conley, Rasmussen, Heaney and everyone else are all probably another year away so let's keep them out.

So let's say they keep Johnson as the ace and he is $15-17-17-18-18 on a 5 year deal sort of thing. That sucks up a great deal of payroll but necessary. Let's also say they sign a vagabond 4th SP for around $6 million on a 1 year deal. Skimp the bullpen per usual with power arms and "kearns" types for bench, so those 4 spots go for cumulatively $5 million.

And then here is a problem. They need a starting catcher, CF and SP, and have no one to promote. Maybe a SP, but let's not put all of the pressure on that yet. If they maintain current payroll, they are looking at best case scenario maybe $4 million bucks to spend on these three spots, so this could be a very 'Ramon Hernandez' veteran type scary. Which isn't necessarily a bad thing as a lineup of Reyes, Bonifacio, Hanley, Stanton, Morrison, and Yelich should hit (a lot) in 2014, but it is two weaker spots of the lineup. They need to be creative and try and turn some of their minor league pitching depth, Dominguez, Ozuna, Gaby, Coghlan, Webb, etc, into potential options at C and CF in two years. Easier said then done, and I am not even talking about "good" ones, I'm just talking about "not embarrassing" options, but that would be tremendous if they could find a "Gaby" level player for catcher to help.

Anyways, you also are hoping the Marlins get the all star game in 2015, fan interest remains with the park, etc, so maybe they dip this year a little higher and go to $120 for one year to maintain the current roster and get that extra bat and SP they need on 1 year deals.

2015 - Morrison (arb 2), Reyes, Yelich, Stanton (arb 2), two Greg Dobbs types on bench, three cheap bench bats, Johnson (FA contract from 2014), Buerhle, Fernandez, C. James/Hand, Cishek (arb 1), Dunn (arb 2), Rasmussen (RP), Conley (RP), and a farm/veteran min RHP 7th RP. This is 18 players for approx. $83 million

C, 2B, 3B, CF, SP, RP, RP needed for around $20 million, which matches this year's payroll. They get all-star game, I can easily see another $15-20 to spend and patch everything.

They have some farm assets with Heaney, Realmuto, Perio, Ozuna, and 2010-2014 draft classes to use, promote, trade, have some cash to burn, and should have a bevy of picks in the 2015 draft with letting Hanley walk. Hard to project which maybes work out here, but I don't think this will be that daunting given 2 more years of evaluations and I suspect this will work itself out. This is still a strong projectable team with payroll flexibility. Drafting the rotation is huge.

2016 - Morrison (arb 3), Reyes, Yelich, Stanton (arb 3), Johnson (FA contract from 2014), Fernandez, C. James/Hand (arb 1), Heaney, Cishek (arb 2), Conley, Rasmussen. That is 11 players for approx $68 million.

Not knowing how the 10-14 draft stock works out, how much baseball inflation is looking, and an assortment of other factors, it's pretty impossible to go beyond their current contracts, players who assumedly they will keep through arbitration because they are good, and primary 1st-2nd rounders, but I think it is safe to say that isn't a killer amount of payroll for half your projected lineup and maybe all of the rotation 4 years from now. This is really fair too when thinking about long term position slotting. No real hail marys here.
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Anyways, long story short, they have some payroll flexibility and it's not that doomish even with those backloaded contracts. They just have to be smart about it. I think these are the top 5 things that need to happen and everything will turn out pretty ok.

1. Buying out Stanton ASAP to lock in lowest price possible
2. Acquire a young, preferably cost controlled (Bourjos) but cheaper (Span) works too, CF ASAP
3. Needing to get Yelich, Fernandez, C. James/Hand, Heaney, and a few bullpen arms to develop next few years.' Anyone else doing anything is a bonus
4. Acquire an ace/keep Johnson post 2013, average contract value $15-18 is acceptable
5. Be confident and let your free agents walk for picks, don't draft like a pussy, and pay the extra $500k signing bonus for the better player and don't take Skipworth and Sinkbiels

[Todd]

Chad James looks like anything but a surefire starter at this point.

[Mainge]

I feel like you do this post every year and it never works out half that good.

[Party]

I feel like you do this post every year and it never works out half that good.

Absolutely. I think 10% of those posts all-time have come into fruition. In 2005-2006 we were guaranteed 90 win teams for five years starting in 2008.

[lou]

Chad James looks like anything but a surefire starter at this point.

The point is the organization is going to give him a chance based on their investment and pedigree so when you plan the future payroll and see what longterm contracts you can and cannot afford, those players are slotted in. They are going to "leave room" for Yelich, Fernandez, James, Hand, etc to fly or die, just like they did with all other like players who made it to the bigs, like Hermida, Maybin, Volstad, etc. Maybe they don't work out, but they absolutely must be accounted for in figuring out what you can and cannot afford moving forward
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Absolutely. I think 10% of those posts all-time have come into fruition. In 2005-2006 we were guaranteed 90 win teams for five years starting in 2008.

You are very confused, see above. This is not Yelich turning into Paul O'Neil and Fernandez into Felix Hernandez. This is payroll strategy based on a comment we have "bad contracts" on the book, and what is feasible moving forward. Based on what is on the books, they are going to give the first/second rounders a shot. Do they work out? I don't know. But I do know that this team as constructed must depend on getting some contributions from the farm from a few key players in order to survive.
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I feel like you do this post every year and it never works out half that good.

Again, on field product is different than payroll estimations. This is what can they realistically do based on 25 man roster, contracts, and realistic farm stock that they will use in the bigs. Do those players work out? Who knows, but it's very arguable they are well set up on paper. And when evaluating the process of the front office, you have to appreciate that. I understand this is a results oriented business, but the method that you do things counts when seeing if the front office has a clue.

[Swifty]

How can the land of future sunshine lollipops and rainbows forget Realmuto? Even I'm fairly excited about him (mostly because he's a C, but he's also a C that still hits at Jupiter, which is when legitimate hitting prospects are usually "born" in our system). He and Yelich are kind of why I'm looking to 2014, Buck's off the books, Yelich and Realmuto let you have 2 CC guys for 3 years to spend 3 year crazy money on a starter to slot behind (or replace) JJ. Ricky will also (thankfully) be off the books. Some names to consider for that list: Lincecum, Lester, Garza, Ubaldo, Santana and back end guys like Burnett, Zito, and Capuano.

[Mainge]

As hot as he's been lately, he's still sporting a sub .700 OPS. He's not really hitting.

[Swifty]

I don't think he's a future 3 hole hitter, but the reports say his glove is very good, he hit last year in G'Boro, he started off well in Jupiter, tailed off and is coming on again and he's 21 or 22. I think there's a lot to like about his future with us as a 4 or 5 year starter in the bottom 3rd of the lineup.

[Anonymous]

As hot as he's been lately, he's still sporting a sub .700 OPS. He's not really hitting.

I think his numbers will look better by the end of the season.

Plus, isn't he great at throwing runners out?

[Mainge]

I don't think he's a future 3 hole hitter, but the reports say his glove is very good, he hit last year in G'Boro, he started off well in Jupiter, tailed off and is coming on again and he's 21 or 22. I think there's a lot to like about his future with us as a 4 or 5 year starter in the bottom 3rd of the lineup.

I'm sort of with you on that but he didn't start well either. .670 OPS in April, .650 in May.

I don't know where we can find this but I vaguely recall him starting slow in GBoro and heating up second half last year too. If that trend continues, I'd definitely be higher on him than I am now.

[Swifty]

Because our near term success absolutely hinges on Hanley rebounding (for the record, I think he will) Stanton taking the next step and stopping the stretches he does where he looks like a retard swinging a garden hose and Logan taking 'the leap'. If none of that happens, go home, this is a really bad team, not merely a bad one. I think that what we have in Yelich, Realmuto, Fernandez and James gives us the ability to say that 2014 will have guys who can hold their own and give us some flexibility to go bonkers on one position on a short(er) deal, and hopefully on a legitimate starter. We're probably going to give JJ an extension (even if, for the first time ever, I am kind of against that) because Loria loves him. So figure JJ-Buehrle-(Anibal/Z - since we'll keep one) - ??? - James/Fernandez in the rotation Reyes - Bonifacio - Hanley - Stanton - Logan - Yelich - Realmuto - ?? (your pick of CF or 2B, depending on where you want Bonifacio). Cheap labor from 3 starters (all of whom should be about average) sounds pretty good to me. We don't need star output from any of them (though it wouldn't hurt and I'm really starting to like Yelich) we just need them to hold their own and let us give a 3 year contract to a starter (Santana?) and find a guy to play 2B/CF.

I'm all about 2014.