Hanley HUGH in Marlins Victory Over Astros in Extras and Series Clincher; 5-4

[Bobbob1313]

You did it.

[CrimsonCane]

Another question, CC. Obviously in that situation, the Marlins only need one run. Is it possible that you can have a higher chance of holding a team to zero runs, while still having a higher run expectancy?

You're not trying to prevent a big inning here, you're trying to prevent a single. Obviously by putting more people on base, you're increasing your chance of allowing more runs. But in this case, they're meaningless.
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Does that make sense at all?

Yes. It makes perfect sense and you can definitely calculate that. Instead of the Run Expectancy Matrix, I'd apply the same principles but look at changes in Win Expectancy. Identical process and a much more accurate result.

I just don't have the data to work with on hand. For my study (which is now about 4 years old), I relied on stats that I could obtain online or via my old subscription to Baseball Prospectus. And, my focus was a rule of thumb rather than a definitive strategy for a situation as specific as the Marlins one. But, I think it'll stay true because the you get a fairly substantial discrepancy in expected value under the rule of thumb.

And, to address nny's point about the quality of the hitters afterwards, you can likely use Markov Chains for that. (It's what they use to generate the runs expectancy matrix in the first place.)

[Ramp]

You did it.

I needed stuff to wear to the 3 game series up at CITI next week

can't wear the Willingham jersey every game.... or can I?
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ya'll can wave to me on tv!

[jOOj]

I see ya. >_o

[Namaste]

Ask Namaste.

Blow me, then I'll answer the question.

[MiamiHomer]

Always so defensive .

[Namaste]

I recall last year, when we lost a series to Houston, the season was over.

Technically, wasn't the season over (because we ultimately didn't make the playoffs?)
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Always so defensive .

Only if you take me seriously


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Rampo, we LOVE the orange one.

:bowdown

[jOOj]

Blow me, then I'll answer the question.

Police procedure.

[Ramp]

Miami Marlins : The Season Is On!

[Madman81]

Another question, CC. Obviously in that situation, the Marlins only need one run. Is it possible that you can have a higher chance of holding a team to zero runs, while still having a higher run expectancy?

You're not trying to prevent a big inning here, you're trying to prevent a single. Obviously by putting more people on base, you're increasing your chance of allowing more runs. But in this case, they're meaningless.
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Does that make sense at all?

I use this same logic when it comes to bunting with a runner on second and no outs. Sure, your run expectancy is higher without giving away the out, but don't you have a greater chance of scoring just one run, if it's all you need, with a guy on third and one out rather than a guy on second with no outs?

[Ice]

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asdu26Fymns&feature=youtube_gdata_player[/ame]

Great song, or greatest song?

[Chewford]

I watched the highlight of Infante's homerun and saw that sign guy held up a sign that said "INFANTE". I wonder if he worked hard on that one. I guess expressing genuine joy that a Marlins player hit a homerun like a normal person was off the table.

[tr305]

I don't think it's free until the game has concluded. But I could be wrong

[tr305]

So why are so many people standing outside (but inside the gates) and not allowed in throughout the game ?

[Swifty]

They're not 21...?