Hanley HUGH in Marlins Victory Over Astros in Extras and Series Clincher; 5-4

[Jorge18]

It doesn't get that specific. But, when I did that study, I did take into account the probability of where the hitter puts the ball.

With more data, I'd be able to make the calculations with that level of specificity. And, I think they'd still be in favor of pitching to Boni because the difference in expected runs in that situation generally is large enough that the infield depth should not tip the scales too heavily.

Here's a link to the abstract of my study: http://www.amstat.org/chapters/boston/nessis/abs.pdf (Look for "When to Walk")

"Harvard", huh?

[Bobbob1313]

Does that make sense at all?

I think there are situations where you could increase your chances for one run by decreasing your chances for multiple runs, but I don't know if the numbers back that up.

[geemoney]

Was hoping to see Ani's triple on the Marlins website, but doesn't look like that made it into the top videos from the game. Disappointing.

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

It was a shot over the CFers head only cause he was playing him so shallow. If Reyes had that same hut with the CFer playing how he was it's an inside the parker.

[nny]

Yeah what's needed is % of chance a run scores, not runs expected. The infield depth also matters a lot in this situation, since that does give a better chance for a hit.

I also dislike how it ignores how good the hitter is v.s. the hitter behind him. I'd be interested in a bucket system (By, say, OPS+ for the season) to actually compare that. In most situations it wouldn't make a difference, but still would be better for see the situations where it would.

Other thing to consider for this specific situation: How well does the guy ground into a DP? Hanley has grounded into a DP in 1.4% of his PA, league average last year was 1.8% (Obviously better to see % of PA in DP situations but for the purpose of display % of PA is good enough); Although last 2 years - since his GB rates have both been higher than what he used to put up - he's at 2%.

[Jorge18]

We're in last place

[Chewford]

We're in last place

It's April 16th.

[Jorge18]

It's April 16th.

I see what you did there.

[Ramp]

atleast we're not San Diego

[Chewford]

No better place for whackin' it.

[HUGG]

But they stay classy.

[Ramp]

I recall last year, when we lost a series to Houston, the season was over.

We won this series, so does that mean the season is officially on?

[MiamiHomer]

Ask Namaste.

[Valid]

We're in last place

Not for long.

[Ramp]

we're 1-0 since I bought 2 Marlins shirts today