Hanley HUGH in Marlins Victory Over Astros in Extras and Series Clincher; 5-4

[CrimsonCane]

I also would have walked the bases loaded. Hanley is amazing but I'd take my chances.

It's not the smart baseball move.

[Mainge]

Alrighty.

[CrimsonCane]

The expected runs allowed with the IBB is greater than pitching to Bonifacio.

IBB are way overused. Statistically speaking, you only use an IBB in the very rare instance where you have 1st base open AND 2 outs AND you are currently facing one of the Top 15 hitters in the league. (The lone exception to this rule of thumb may be in the NL when you have the pitcher on deck AND 2 outs). Walking to set up the DP never nets you positive expected value.

[Jorge18]

Understood, but that doesn't mean a whole lot.

With the winning run on third and no force, the infield has to play in. You're getting very little range. Boner just has to flip the bat out there and chances are, it's going through.

OK "Mainge"

[Mainge]

The expected runs allowed with the IBB is greater than pitching to Bonifacio.

IBB are way overused. Statistically speaking, you only use an IBB in the very rare instance where you have 1st base open AND 2 outs AND you are currently facing one of the Top 15 hitters in the league. (The lone exception to this rule of thumb may be in the NL when you have the pitcher on deck AND 2 outs). Walking to set up the DP never nets you positive expected value.

You aren't necessarily walking to set up a double play. You're giving your infield options. You're allowing your infield to get some range and throw out the runner at home with a force, as well as turn two if the opportunity presents itself.

Here's a question. How is run expectancy calculated? Does it take into account infield depth?

[MiamiHomer]

If my brother was ever a manager, his bench coach would be a laptop.

[CrimsonCane]

You aren't necessarily walking to set up a double play. You're giving your infield options. You're allowing your infield to get some range and throw out the runner at home with a force, as well as turn two if the opportunity presents itself.

Here's a question. How is run expectancy calculated? Does it take into account infield depth?

It is situational. There is a matrix that basically tells you how many runs an average team is expected to score from that situation until the end of the inning.

Here is an example: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...05.premium.php

[Mainge]

What about infield depth?
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I would be interested in a study that takes into account runners on second and third with an infield VS bases loaded with the infield backed up/corners in

[CrimsonCane]

It doesn't get that specific. But, when I did that study, I did take into account the probability of where the hitter puts the ball.

With more data, I'd be able to make the calculations with that level of specificity. And, I think they'd still be in favor of pitching to Boni because the difference in expected runs in that situation generally is large enough that the infield depth should not tip the scales too heavily.

Here's a link to the abstract of my study: http://www.amstat.org/chapters/boston/nessis/abs.pdf (Look for "When to Walk")

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

Announced crowd of 34,232 (92% full). Salguero will probably say look at the field sections down 1st and 3rd base that were empty! Even though those seats are crazy expensive.

I wonder what the o/u for attendance would be if this was DS against the cAstros on a Sunday afternoon.

[Mainge]

ehe "When to Walk"

it's hard to change something you've "known" to be correct for your entire life. I still would like to see more data on that though.

[Fritz]

I don't see the point of walking with the runners on 2nd and 3rd. To me it seems like the results would be more favorable of recording a positive or neutral play with the base empty than if the bases are loaded.

[Namaste]

The expected runs allowed with the IBB is greater than pitching to Bonifacio.

IBB are way overused. Statistically speaking, you only use an IBB in the very rare instance where you have 1st base open AND 2 outs AND you are currently facing one of the Top 15 hitters in the league. (The lone exception to this rule of thumb may be in the NL when you have the pitcher on deck AND 2 outs). Walking to set up the DP never nets you positive expected value.

Postive EV talk makes me horny

[CrimsonCane]

It's a product of risk aversion. Our minds are designed to overestimate the probabilities of negative outcomes and underestimate the probabilities of positive ones. We assume that a hit will happen more often than it actually will. I mean, in baseball, failure happens about 65% of the time.

[Mainge]

Another question, CC. Obviously in that situation, the Marlins only need one run. Is it possible that you can have a higher chance of holding a team to zero runs, while still having a higher run expectancy?

You're not trying to prevent a big inning here, you're trying to prevent a single run. Obviously by putting more people on base, you're increasing your chance of allowing more runs. But in this case, they're meaningless.
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Does that make sense at all?