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The Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System (or the Marcels for short) is the most advanced forecasting system ever conceived.
Not.
Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
The reliability column tells you how reliable the forecast is. (The higher the better). Players are sorted by ERA or Linear Weights.
I do not stand behind these forecasts. Consider me only a trustee of the system. For me to stand behind a forecasting system, I'd have to spend a multitude of hours to get it right. And, the difference between doing it right, and doing it with the Marcels.... well, I'd rather continue spending my time working on other baseball research. Still want more proof? Well, here's how Marcel stacked up with the best in the business. Ain't much difference.
Introduction to Marcel
FAQ: "Yeah, but, how can you forecast the leader in HR to have only [insert number]?" I get this all the time. Here's the explanation.
FAQ: "But, what about a player who's never played MLB? Where's his forecast?" That's simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel's official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.
FAQ: "How much?" It's free (as in beer)! But, if you want to show your appreciation, buy my book (click image at top of this page). If you've already bought my book, and still want to show your appreciation, then buy The Hardball Times Annual. If you've already bought that book, then you're in the clear.
Not.
Actually, it is the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible. So, that's the allusion to the monkey. It uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor.
The reliability column tells you how reliable the forecast is. (The higher the better). Players are sorted by ERA or Linear Weights.
I do not stand behind these forecasts. Consider me only a trustee of the system. For me to stand behind a forecasting system, I'd have to spend a multitude of hours to get it right. And, the difference between doing it right, and doing it with the Marcels.... well, I'd rather continue spending my time working on other baseball research. Still want more proof? Well, here's how Marcel stacked up with the best in the business. Ain't much difference.
Introduction to Marcel
FAQ: "Yeah, but, how can you forecast the leader in HR to have only [insert number]?" I get this all the time. Here's the explanation.
FAQ: "But, what about a player who's never played MLB? Where's his forecast?" That's simple. His forecast is the league mean over 200 PA, 60 IP (starter) or 25 IP (reliever). If you want to know what the league mean is, just take the average of anyone forecast with a reliability of 0.00. So, Marcel's official forecast for anyone coming over from Japan is that.
FAQ: "How much?" It's free (as in beer)! But, if you want to show your appreciation, buy my book (click image at top of this page). If you've already bought my book, and still want to show your appreciation, then buy The Hardball Times Annual. If you've already bought that book, then you're in the clear.
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