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Mainge's comment in the post game thread ("Actually his overall numbers suck but 3 of those starts are really good" in regards to his starts at Chase Field) got me interested in just the break down of Ricky's numbers of great games v.s. absolutely shitting the bed games.
From 2009-2011, he made 90 starts (So average 30 starts a year) and put up a 4.76 ERA. He has one of those "holy shit" games roughly every two months, so let's take off 3 (10%) of his worst starts each year. Each not 10% of his worst starts in that 3 year period, but 10% each season.
2009: 3.99 ERA, 176 IP (2 IP/8 ER, 3.1 IP/10 ER, 3.2 IP/8 ER)
2010: 3.59 ERA, 145.1 IP (2 IP/6 ER, 5.1 IP/8 ER, 5 IP/7 ER)
2011: 3.66 ERA, 199.2 IP (1.1 IP/9 ER, 3 IP/11 ER, 2 IP/6 ER)
Total: 3.75 ERA, 521 IP.
That would have ranked him 48th in ERA in that time period out of 135, compared to his 118th spot actually on the board. So in 90% of his starts in that time period, he was roughly in the top 1/3rd of SP.
21.2% improvement. Meanwhile, you do that to Volstad (Who's 88 starts and 4.88 ERA is very comparable) and he drops to a 4.32 ERA (11.5% improvement).
Now that's just looking at two pitchers obviously. Rather than Nolasco being the anomaly, it could be Volstad. But I'd certainly imagine it's Nolasco.
Also want to make sure to clarify, not talking about him this year. Fuck him this year, and very likely next year with his ever declining strike outs. Just trying to put in perspective 09-11, where yeah he was as a whole a disappointment but in 90% of his starts did what we were expecting and 10% just shat the bed completely. Not saying he was awesome, those 10% starts still really hurt. Just that he probably didn't affect us as bad as his ERA would make us think
From 2009-2011, he made 90 starts (So average 30 starts a year) and put up a 4.76 ERA. He has one of those "holy shit" games roughly every two months, so let's take off 3 (10%) of his worst starts each year. Each not 10% of his worst starts in that 3 year period, but 10% each season.
2009: 3.99 ERA, 176 IP (2 IP/8 ER, 3.1 IP/10 ER, 3.2 IP/8 ER)
2010: 3.59 ERA, 145.1 IP (2 IP/6 ER, 5.1 IP/8 ER, 5 IP/7 ER)
2011: 3.66 ERA, 199.2 IP (1.1 IP/9 ER, 3 IP/11 ER, 2 IP/6 ER)
Total: 3.75 ERA, 521 IP.
That would have ranked him 48th in ERA in that time period out of 135, compared to his 118th spot actually on the board. So in 90% of his starts in that time period, he was roughly in the top 1/3rd of SP.
21.2% improvement. Meanwhile, you do that to Volstad (Who's 88 starts and 4.88 ERA is very comparable) and he drops to a 4.32 ERA (11.5% improvement).
Now that's just looking at two pitchers obviously. Rather than Nolasco being the anomaly, it could be Volstad. But I'd certainly imagine it's Nolasco.
Also want to make sure to clarify, not talking about him this year. Fuck him this year, and very likely next year with his ever declining strike outs. Just trying to put in perspective 09-11, where yeah he was as a whole a disappointment but in 90% of his starts did what we were expecting and 10% just shat the bed completely. Not saying he was awesome, those 10% starts still really hurt. Just that he probably didn't affect us as bad as his ERA would make us think
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