Giancarlo Stanton, OF

[Swifty]

What about the Longoria buy-out? Are you opposed to that? I think/hope we learned our lesson with Miggy.

I would hope that by the time Stanton and the $2 million-ish comes into play, he's already bought out.

[lou]

What about the Longoria buy-out? Are you opposed to that? I think/hope we learned our lesson with Miggy.

I would hope that by the time Stanton and the $2 million-ish comes into play, he's already bought out.

That, is your best argument for bringing him up right now. If you buy him out NOW, which basically means pre-2011, you have thrown out that whole keep him down thing because you've paid him so early you cheaply buyout from the whole issue. I'm cool with that if there is 100% certainty he is not Angel Berroa or Bobby Crosby (the worst buyouts I can think of off the top of my head, and no one give me shit for mentioning clearly crap players, it's just for the argument you don't want them on the books 6 years from now when they blow).

My response would be, I personally wouldn't do it. Is he as safe as Longoria, Sizemore, and let's even add Heyward? I'm in the no column, even though I am very high on Stanton like everyone. Those are a lot of whiffs - look at Brandon Wood who had similar whiff problems (yes I know Stanton has more power and walks more, I'm just making the argument). We don't want to commit to a guy who COULD flatline at the bigs on breaking pitches or whatever.

Also, again. I think the "keep him down 5 weeks" argument is very powerful. He doesn't make/break this team coming up in May versus June. It's the smart thing financially and allows Maybin/Coghlan, and let's put Gaby in their too (Cantu 1B, Coghlan 3B, Stanton OF in that scenario), to solidify themselves as starting players

I buy your buyout argument completely, but are you that confident? That's the question. A lot of whiffs. And I won't lie, I have some Hermidatation. That's hesitation spelled in Marlin.

[Swifty]

Reason I'd buy him out is his upside is unprecedented. It's like Andre Dawson if the knees never gave out, got infused with Albert Belle's power and got crossbred with awesome. I really don't think that there's been a player like him to come around in a long time. That's not to say I think his upside surpasses everyone in the bigs, far from it, but he has the real potential to be monumentally unprecedented in terms of power production and athletic ability. We're talking about a 20 year old who's already got legit 40 homer potential, what are we talking about when he grows up? 50 a year? 60?

And if he comes up and struggles, worst case scenario, he's Cody Ross or Marcus Thames. He has too much harnessed power to disappear completely. We're not talking doubles that'll eventually get over the wall, it's already there. If we end up with worst case scenario Mike Stanton, we can still absolutely unload him. There's no chance he becomes an albatross because he'll still be incredibly young if we have to pull the plug and teams are always looking for a masher to just kill LHP. Plus, you lock him in now and in 2014 dollars he'll be a retarded bargain. Salaries are going to explode in the next 3 seasons between inflation and MLB soaring past the locked out NBA and NFL.

[Jay]

He needs to see AAA based on the fact he needs to see more people who already understand how to pitch and aren't just high potential arms that are developing and learning how to pitch. He will see more and better off speed pitches at AAA.

[Chewford]

The guy is having a great game on a daily basis, his HR to at bat ratio is ridiculously ridiculous. Why is he still at AA. Move him to AAA if he can't be put on the MLB roster right at least so he can party on Bourbon Street while the FO is retarded for not bringing him up. Keep him at AA makes absolutely, some might say this is ludacris, but Taio Cruz tell em how you feel.

[lou]

Reason I'd buy him out is his upside is unprecedented. It's like Andre Dawson if the knees never gave out, got infused with Albert Belle's power and got crossbred with awesome. I really don't think that there's been a player like him to come around in a long time. That's not to say I think his upside surpasses everyone in the bigs, far from it, but he has the real potential to be monumentally unprecedented in terms of power production and athletic ability. We're talking about a 20 year old who's already got legit 40 homer potential, what are we talking about when he grows up? 50 a year? 60?

And if he comes up and struggles, worst case scenario, he's Cody Ross or Marcus Thames. He has too much harnessed power to disappear completely. We're not talking doubles that'll eventually get over the wall, it's already there. If we end up with worst case scenario Mike Stanton, we can still absolutely unload him. There's no chance he becomes an albatross because he'll still be incredibly young if we have to pull the plug and teams are always looking for a masher to just kill LHP. Plus, you lock him in now and in 2014 dollars he'll be a retarded bargain. Salaries are going to explode in the next 3 seasons between inflation and MLB soaring past the locked out NBA and NFL.

I don't like the idea of buying out upside. I like the idea of buying out predictability. I think you can give an awesome contract to a guy with 2+ years of experience, think Miguel Cabrera after 2004 or 2005 ( ). You get a 1000-1500 PA sample size, a year or two away from arbitration, and can get them for all of arbitration + 2 free agency years. I think that is the best possible deal to balance buyout bang for buck / safety with sample size. Yes, it's cheaper to do it in year 1 like Longo, but what are we really adding here? I think that money is worth it for the safety in sample size with seeing the player over the course of 2+ seasons. Emphasis added for my main point. Again, Miguel Cabrera after 2004 or 2005 is a perfect example here. More over that blunder.

The Longo deal just to lay it out. Ignoring nominal incentives.

1 - .5
2 - .55
3 - .95
4 - 2
5 - 4.5
6 - 6 (3 buyout) Small total, 6/$17.5
7 - 7.5
8 - 11
9 - 11.5 Large total, 9/$44.5

I mean, that's really attractive. Really really attractive, but I don't know if that's a good baseline to judge a Stanton buyout because I mean that's a unique situation with a perfectly safe prospect where the organization is willing, and the first deal of it's kind where the agent basically messed up. I don't see any agent giving THAT much in the future with such low guaranteed money for a potential $20+ million star. A better example, Ryan Howard his first 9 years are going to cost Philly $105 million. They were idiots and signed him a year after arbitration though. That is a stronger baseline of what we're looking at if Stanton hits his projections.

Longoria's year 6, $9 million, is really terrifying if the player doesn't pan out. Yea, it's one year and then you rid yourself, but that just pains me even with a $80 million payroll with new stadium. That's setting you back big time that year.

I am in the camp of splitting this Longoria/Howard difference. Play him summer of 2010 if he forces his way onto the team and 2011. That is 2 years from arbitration and you can give a long contract if he's great. If he's still working on stuff, you still have 2012 a year before arbitration, and let alone 2013 where you can just give "The Ryan Howard" deal. And all during this, safe safe safe.

Lou is for predictability, even if it costs more.

---

I've been sitting on this post for 10 minutes, although you're just reading this as I'm going on and on, and man that Longoria deal is awesome. You might be right to just buy him out. How about just spread that "$9 million" into something like... (assuming no super 2)

2010 - .5
2011 - .75
2012 - 1
2013 - $1.5
2014 - $3.5
2015 - $4.75
2016 - $6 (total 6/$18)
Rock the Options
2017 - $10
2018 - $12
2019 - $13 (9/$53)

And shit. That is $10 million more than Longoria overall, but $50 million less than "Howard."

I can live with that on a risk assessment level. But really, that's the only deal we can do like this. Granted you aren't saying to go Morrison or whoever else like this, but we can't have so much money to hail marys like this would be.

Basic point - need to minimize risk in case of failure. That's the # 1 goal of a contract like this. Those contract figures don't kill us. And you're right, based on those hypothetical numbers, hell Marcus Thames, Cody Ross, or Rob Deer, is a solid player for that. And the upside is clearly visible to save 50% on the player.

[Swifty]

I look at it like this: assuming he plays this year and super-2 is an issue, it's not an issue until 2012.

Even if we don't Longoria him (which we should, period) if he's not bought out heading into 2012, we're screwing up and going the Miggy route, again.

So, really, I understand the financial impact of the move, but I don't think it should ever be an issue; if it is we haven't learned our lesson and that's a bigger problem than whether or not we get to keep 2012's Matt Lindstrom.

[lou]

I look at it like this: assuming he plays this year and super-2 is an issue, it's not an issue until 2012.

Even if we don't Longoria him (which we should, period) if he's not bought out heading into 2012, we're screwing up and going the Miggy route, again.

So, really, I understand the financial impact of the move, but I don't think it should ever be an issue; if it is we haven't learned our lesson and that's a bigger problem than whether or not we get to keep 2012's Matt Lindstrom.

I can agree, if he is awesome, and it's clearly a buyout situation, if they do not do it 1 year before arbitration at the latest, they are fucking idiots. Cabrera after 2005 should have been a 6-7 year deal, despite their payroll issues. I hope they have learned from that mistake.

[MiamiHomer]

Power-hitting prospect Michael Stanton will be here at some point this season. Probably sooner rather than later, considering his Double-A season so far looks like one long batting-practice session.

A question the Marlins Get your Marlins Tickets now! are contemplating is whether Stanton would benefit from an intermediate stop at Triple-A New Orleans before his much-anticipated arrival in the majors. Within the last decade, Triple-A increasingly has become an unnecessary step for the game's top prospects, most of whom are housed throughout Double-A teams.

Triple-A continues to have its share of high upside players, but it's become more of what manager Fredi Gonzalez termed an extension of the major league roster. In many cases, prospects in Triple-A are there only because they've mastered Double-A and are blocked in the majors.

"When I was in Double-A, I only had one player get called up and that was [ Mark] Kotsay for like four days," said Gonzalez, who in 1997 managed the Marlins' then-Double-A Eastern League affiliate in Portland, Me. "When I was in Triple-A, everybody got called up from Triple-A."

Since the current front office took over before the 2002 season, here's a sampling of players promoted straight from Double-A: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Jeremy Hermida, Scott Olsen, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Taylor Tankersley, Ryan Tucker, Sean West, Chris Volstad, Gaby Sanchez, Cristhian Martinez, Chris Leroux and Burke Badenhop.

"I won the batting title in Double-A," said Marlins broadcaster and 12-year major league veteran Tommy Hutton. "I didn't come to the big leagues. I went to Triple-A. That's how you did it back then…The difference today and years ago is that you played Triple-A. It was filled at that time with a lot of ex-major leaguers, guys who had been around that you could learn things from."

Stanton hit his 13th home run Monday for Jacksonville. He's averaging a homer every 6.6 at-bats in addition to batting .360 with 29 RBI and 1.388 on-base plus slugging percentage. At 20, Stanton is still young by Double-A standards.

The Marlins' immediate plans are to leave him where he is, but Stanton is outgrowing Double-A the way a teenager outgrows a pair of dress shoes. Whether he arrives straight from Double-A or Triple-A is more a matter of playing time than readiness.

As long as the Marlins are satisfied with a starting outfield of Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin and Cody Ross, they have to continue finding challenges for Stanton in the minors. That's where a stint with New Orleans could prove helpful. He might not see as many high-ceiling arms, but that level is dotted with former big leaguers.

"In Double-A, you have guys who have good stuff," outfielder Brett Carroll said. "They have live arms, just lack of experience. Their command isn't as great, but you keep your eye out for them because they have some potential. Triple-A guys obviously have been up and down. If the guys who are there haven't had any time in the big leagues, they know how to pitch because they've been around longer. They're around the plate more, they mix their pitches more.

"For me, it helped a lot because I learned to sit on 2-0 changeups, be a lot more selective. Double-A guys are like, 'Here you go, here it comes,' hard sliders. You have guys with more electrifying stuff in Double-A."

Stanton has shown he can hit the electrifying stuff while demonstrating great selectivity. He's walked as much as he's struck out (25). Triple-A could help him refine that skill.

"When they start to see especially a young guy coming up, big swing, ready to go, hit a lot of fastballs coming up before he got to Triple-A, they'll start to spin him and make him earn that fastball to hit," Carroll said. "It's not, 'OK, here's a 2-0 fastball right down the middle.' They don't give in at Triple-A."

Added Hutton: "The bottom line is he's going to benefit just by having more at-bats, whether it's Double-A or Triple-A."

Florida Marlins weigh merits of Stanton promotion to Triple-A

[wanks1212]

As usual, some quality insight from Tommy Hutton.

[lou]

"In Double-A, you have guys who have good stuff," outfielder Brett Carroll said. "They have live arms, just lack of experience. Their command isn't as great, but you keep your eye out for them because they have some potential. Triple-A guys obviously have been up and down. If the guys who are there haven't had any time in the big leagues, they know how to pitch because they've been around longer. They're around the plate more, they mix their pitches more.

"For me, it helped a lot because I learned to sit on 2-0 changeups, be a lot more selective. Double-A guys are like, 'Here you go, here it comes,' hard sliders. You have guys with more electrifying stuff in Double-A."

"When they start to see especially a young guy coming up, big swing, ready to go, hit a lot of fastballs coming up before he got to Triple-A, they'll start to spin him and make him earn that fastball to hit," Carroll said. "It's not, 'OK, here's a 2-0 fastball right down the middle.' They don't give in at Triple-A."

Brett Carroll dominating

[FishFF]

Minor Developments: Reality check

By Rob Steingall, Comcast SportsNet Chicago (special to Yahoo!) 4 hours, 49 minutes ago

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You can find more from Rob Steingall at Comcast SportsNet Chicago

Warning: Those blinded by gaudy home run totals, inflated batting averages and the media hype machine may be strongly offended by this piece. Continue reading at your own risk.

A few hours after writing last week’s piece, Mike Stanton(notes) went buck wild and blasted three home runs in Monday’s game, prompting a fantasy frenzy. For those of you who ran to your waiver wire to snatch him up for this season, I think you’re going to be sorely disappointed. Don’t get me wrong, Stanton is a top prospect, and one whose power potential you should be very excited about. In my opinion, though, he is also a flawed prospect. Let’s examine.
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What do all of these pitchers have in common?

Nick Hill: 15.88 ERA
Justin Cassel: 3.38 ERA
Dallas Buck: 6.29 ERA
Sean Watson: 18.47 ERA
Curtis Partch: 21.00 ERA- Made a spot start in Double-A, then sent back to High-A
Richard Sullivan: 4.07 ERA
Jacob Thompson: 6.28 ERA
Thomas Palica: 6.57 ERA

To those of you who guessed, “Victims of Mike Stanton moon shots this season,” kudos. If you said “Future Cy Young winners,” you’re a true maverick in the field and are seeing something I’m not. The point I’m trying to make here is that Stanton isn’t hitting these home runs off elite pitchers, or even above average ones. He needs to be promoted to Triple-A, and soon, so he can begin developing his batting eye against higher level competition. I’d love to see him face-off against Pacific Coast League ERA leader Derek Holland(notes) (0.53 ERA) in a battle of pure power. Triple-A would be a nice natural progression for him, as I believe he’d be overmatched in the majors.

Many will point to Jason Heyward’s(notes) success thus far and believe Stanton could have a similar impact. As far as I’m concerned, Stanton is far below the level of a prospect like Jason Heyward, and it is a pretty large margin. Remember, Heyward posted a high walk rate (14.4%) and low strikeout rate (11.7%) in the same league in ’09, not to mention a .352 average that was supported by a solid contact rate. His current major league contact rate of 74.7% is great for a player his age, but he’s still striking out a ton (32.1%), and has posted a decent .272 average. Imagine Mike Stanton, with his contact rate, in the majors?

While the walk rate has risen dramatically, how true of an indicator is it that he’s improved? When you’re going against mediocre pitchers who are doing everything they can to pitch around you, you’re going to walk your fair share. Walk rates have improved up and down the Southern League, go see for yourself. Sure, players naturally progress. But in a league with horrible pitching, numbers become inflated.

One thing that is undeniable is Stanton’s raw power, but his current .354 batting average is unsustainable, mainly due to his poor contact rate. In 2009, Stanton posted a contact rate of 67% in Double-A, which is well below average. Let’s look at some major league players who sat around that level in 2009:

Mark Reynolds(notes): 62.2%
Carlos Pena(notes): 65.0%
Russell Branyan(notes): 65.7%
Ryan Howard(notes): 67.1%
Jack Cust(notes): 69.2%

That is great company when it comes to pure power production, which should get Stanton fans and owners very excited. What do all these men have in common though? On the surface, they all strike out a ton, and have pedestrian career batting averages. Most troubling of all though, is they didn’t actually break out in the majors until relatively late in their careers. That leads me to believe that someone with the skill set of a Mike Stanton still has a long road ahead when it comes to mastering major league pitching.

While I think Mike Stanton is going to be an elite power hitter in the majors, I have serious doubts that it will be during the 2010 season, or even the 2011 season for that matter. While he certainly has age on his side, there are holes in his swing that need to be addressed. Give me Desmond Jennings(notes), an explosive leadoff man with a keen batting eye who will hit for a high average and steal a bunch of bases, for the remainder of 2010. Obviously, you can draw your own conclusions, but I’ll pass when it comes to rostering Mike Stanton in a mixed league this year.

Have a prospect question? A player you want to see covered? Send it to MinorDevelopments@yahoo.com.

Rob Steingall is a nationally syndicated fantasy analyst whose work has appeared in newspapers including The Providence Journal.

Sure it has to do with adding him on a fantasy roster, but one schmucks take. I love how the article kind of blames Stanton for tearing up AA facing shitty pitchers.

[CrimsonCane]

From the article:

Let’s look at some major league players who sat around that level in 2009:

Mark Reynolds(notes): 62.2%
Carlos Pena(notes): 65.0%
Russell Branyan(notes): 65.7%
Ryan Howard(notes): 67.1%
Jack Cust(notes): 69.2%

That is great company when it comes to pure power production, which should get Stanton fans and owners very excited. What do all these men have in common though? On the surface, they all strike out a ton, and have pedestrian career batting averages. Most troubling of all though, is they didn’t actually break out in the majors until relatively late in their careers. That leads me to believe that someone with the skill set of a Mike Stanton still has a long road ahead when it comes to mastering major league pitching.

This is horrible logic. He takes a statistical similarity (contact rates) and then throws in a random observation (they're older) to tie it in to his argument. All he's doing is dressing up an observational argument with stats to make it seem more legitimate. He says that the MLB players with similar contact rates came into the league at an older age. He doesn't compare their numbers at age 20 with Stanton's (which would've been the necessary comparison).

So I'll do it for him.

Stanton's HR/PA (By age)
- Age 17: 2.8%
- Age 18: 7.2% (39 HR season in A ball)
- Age 19: 5.0%
- Age 20: 11% !!!!!!

Now, let's look at his comparables:
- Mark Reynolds: 3.9% (Age 20); 3.9% (Age 21); 6.9% (Age 22) -> Called up
- Carlos Pena: Never has a season above 5.0%
- Jack Cust: Posts a 5.7% in A ball at age 20; 5.11% at Age 23 in AAA.

That leaves us with Howard and Branyan (the two most interesting comparables).
Branyan posted a 6.1% at age 19 and a 7.2% at age 20 (Both in A ball). At age 22, he tore up AA with a 8.0% and a 1.110 OPS.

Howard puts up an 8.0% at age 24 in AA (OPS above 1.000), prior to that, he hadn't really shown his power.

This just goes to show how far along Stanton's power development is relative to his age when put up against other power hitters. At 18 years old, Stanton's HR/PA was similar to what these big-time power hitters took until 21-23 to get. And, his numbers this season in AA are off the charts. He's hitting a homerun 1 out of every 10 times he goes to the plate (including walks). If we consider HR/At-Bat, he's hitting one out of the park 14.6% of the time. (The only other time I've seen a rate that high is 2001 Barry Bonds.)

As a result, the argument that Stanton's power production still needs a couple of years before its MLB-ready lacks any real support from the statistics suggested in the article.

[MiamiHomer]

The Marlins had an off day Monday, but their top prospect just kept sailing along in Jacksonville.

Mike Stanton had his 13th home run and an RBI single to help the first-place Suns finish their homestand with a 5-1 win over the Mississippi Braves 5-1.

After Lorenzo Scott walked and Ozzie Martinez was hit by a pitch to start the first inning, Stanton singled through the middle to score Scott and give the Suns a 1-0 lead.

Suns radio broadcaster J.P. Shadrick said, “Stanton went back to work in the third inning. After a one-out double from Martinez, Stanton hit a mile-high home run inside the left field pole, his Minor League leading 13th of the season, opening a 3-0 Suns lead.”

Shadrick added that Stanton missed a second home run by inches when Braves left fielder Cody Johnson pulled back the fly ball for the final out of the fifth inning.

Baseball America points out that with 13 home runs in the Suns’ first 24 games, Stanton is on a pace to hit 76 home runs – in a 140-game season!

Meanwhile, the Marlins starting left fielder has not been able to get untracked this season.

Chris Coghlan is hitting .188 with a .242 OBP with no extra-base hits, well short of the .321 average with .390 on-base percentage he posted last season.

If Coghlan was not the Rookie of the Year last season, he might already have been sent back to the minors.

Stanton’s 2-for-4 raised his batting average to .360 and his slugging percentage to .884, though his OBP actually dropped a point to .504.

“He is something to see,” said Suns President and General Manager Peter Bragan Jr. “The thing about him is he is so strong; fly balls turn to home runs.”

Though you would expect few Southern League pitchers to still be challenging Stanton with fastballs, Bragan said, “He is still tested with hard stuff up and in by certain pitchers and they all try to nibble with fastballs low and away.”

In the April 26 game when Stanton hit three home runs, Bragan said, “The first one was on a breaking ball away and he popped it up to right center, but it just carried over the 375 mark.”

Bragan said Stanton’s second home run carried an estimated 575 feel down the left-field line on a hanging curve. “A Mantle-like shot he had to admire a little.” (MH personal interjection LOL WUTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT)

The third “looked like a line drive out to left off a hard fastball down that seemed to defy gravity in carrying over the outfielder’s head.”

The Suns’ bus, presumably with Stanton on board, then left Jacksonville for Montgomery, Ala., where they will play a five-game series against the second-place Biscuits.

It will be interesting to see how much longer the Marlins will stay with Coghlan while Stanton is putting up Superman-like numbers in the minors.

Marlins' top prospect Mike Stanton on an incredible run for Jacksonville

[Ramp]

575 my ass