Giancarlo Stanton, OF

[HUGG]

Expecting anything less than Babe Ruth makes you a hater.

[Bobbob1313]

I feel like to "expect" anything more is setting up for a huge disappointment. Few players as it is can sustain a higher OPS for their careers, let alone with the amount of K's Stanton has.

The ones who do were either on steroids, walked 15% of the time, or were Reggie Jackson. That is legitimately the entire list.

Just sustaining a long major league career while striking out 25% of the time is almost impossible. Only about 3% of all players with at least 5000 career PAs struck out at least 25% of the time. It's kind of crazy.

[nny]

My main issue with you analysis is that you're not taking year factors into affect; Rather than using a strait K%, I think it'd be a lot better to use a "K%+" (aka, lgK%/K%) like using OPS+ instead of OPS. Pitching has changed, hitters have changed, you can't just use a flat rate as a comparison.

(I think OPS+ is also something you're completely ignoring. Reggie Jackson's career OPS+ is 139, the equivalent of a ~.920 OPS for the past several years]

I posted a comparison before for every age 20 season to see who Stanton best compared to. There were a lot of players that compared to Stanton in that regard (Mickey Mantle's K% as a 21 year old: 17.7%; K%+: 162, not much better than Stanton's [But BB% of of 129 and BABIP of 131), and the best one that matched up to Stanton on all 4 peripheral stats was Eddie Mathews

Stanton:
K%: 168
BB%: 101
ISO: 170
BABIP: 111

Mathews:
K%: 177
BB%: 107
ISO: 175
BABIP: 98

Mathews just EXPLODED at 21 and is no longer a real comp for Stanton, but at age 20 they played VERY similarity

Yeah, if Stanton is going to get wtf good though, he will need to improve his K and BB%. But it's not like he's not improving. His 2011 peripheral plus stats:

K%: 137(!) [Fun fact: Jimmie Foxx's was 151 as a 21 year old, when he lead the league with 70 strike outs]
BB%: 102
ISO: 215(!)
BABIP: 104

His K% has so far dropped 30% over league average and his ISO has jumped 45%, and I have a hard time believing his walks won't follow soon.

He had a very solid age 20 season (20th all time in OPS+, though only 3 players after 1975 have posted a better OPS+ [Alex Rodriguez, Griffey, and Heyward]), and he's getting a lot better. Expectations should be high. If he's not at least 140 OPS+ every year (And I push more towards 150), I'm disappointed.

[Miamarlin21]

I saw this in the Jacksonville team store and thought it was cute.

[Bobbob1313]

*Reposting from the Anibal thread...

Can you guys explain, in detail, to me what "super useful number" we wouldn't be able to sign Stanton for right now or at the end of the year?

Someone who could provide a pretty good framework is Jay Bruce, who had a very similar service time after his rookie year. He was hurt his 2nd year, but his service time was extremely similar. The production's not quite perfect, but Bruce was a very productive player in his first three years for the most part. Stanton will probably outpace him, but it's the best i can do.

He played out his first three years for the minimum and then signed a 6/51 with an option to get it to 7/68.

Then there's someone like Grady Sizemore, who signed for 6/23 with an option for 8.5 in his 7th after his first full season, which put him somewhere around 1.060 years of service time, or something.

Sizemore had more service time than Stanton does right now when he signed his deal, and Stanton is still 2 full years from being where Bruce is. Assuming we won't sign Stanton until after this season, we'll split the difference between them.

You can probably get Stanton for something like 6/35 that buys out all of his arbitration plus one FA year and then tack on two options for $15 that bring the total to like 8/65. He absolutely signs that, and quite honestly, that 6/35 might be too high, because it's based largely on Bruce's contract, and Stanton's still going to be 2 seasons from any sort of paycheck at the end of this year.

If he's half as good as we think he will be, 6/35 (8/65) is a freaking bargain, and I'm fairly certain he'd sign it right away.

Basically, you're playing it out like this:

12: $.5
13: $.5
14: $4.5
15: $7
16: $9.5
17: $13
18: $15*
19: $15*

*Options.

I that even a little but unrealistic for a guy who, once again, is 5 full seasons after this one from being a free agent? He's not turning down $35(+$30) million when he's some 800 games away from free agency.
--------------------

My main issue with you analysis is that you're not taking year factors into affect; Rather than using a strait K%, I think it'd be a lot better to use a "K%+" (aka, lgK%/K%) like using OPS+ instead of OPS. Pitching has changed, hitters have changed, you can't just use a flat rate as a comparison.

(I think OPS+ is also something you're completely ignoring. Reggie Jackson's career OPS+ is 139, the equivalent of a ~.920 OPS for the past several years]

I posted a comparison before for every age 20 season to see who Stanton best compared to. There were a lot of players that compared to Stanton in that regard (Mickey Mantle's K% as a 21 year old: 17.7%; K%+: 162, not much better than Stanton's [But BB% of of 129 and BABIP of 131), and the best one that matched up to Stanton on all 4 peripheral stats was Eddie Mathews

Stanton:
K%: 168
BB%: 101
ISO: 170
BABIP: 111

Mathews:
K%: 177
BB%: 107
ISO: 175
BABIP: 98

Mathews just EXPLODED at 21 and is no longer a real comp for Stanton, but at age 20 they played VERY similarity

Yeah, if Stanton is going to get wtf good though, he will need to improve his K and BB%. But it's not like he's not improving. His 2011 peripheral plus stats:

K%: 137(!) [Fun fact: Jimmie Foxx's was 151 as a 21 year old, when he lead the league with 70 strike outs]
BB%: 102
ISO: 215(!)
BABIP: 104

His K% has so far dropped 30% over league average and his ISO has jumped 45%, and I have a hard time believing his walks won't follow soon.

He had a very solid age 20 season (20th all time in OPS+, though only 3 players after 1975 have posted a better OPS+ [Alex Rodriguez, Griffey, and Heyward]), and he's getting a lot better. Expectations should be high. If he's not at least 140 OPS+ every year (And I push more towards 150), I'm disappointed.

He had a great age 20 season, and he's having a great age 21 season. I'm just not sure I think it's fair to expect him to put up 140 OPS+ every year. Most of the guys who did that combined two or more truly elite batting skills (Mike Schmidt had elite BB% and Power, Chipper Jones had elite BB% and K%, etc.) and then were at least good in the other areas. Stanton's probably only ever going to be elite in 1 category, and will likely only ever be good in K% and BB%, and not great. You have to have a really rare combination of skills, and I'm not sure he's got it in him. I'm sure there are a number of outliers, but they are exactly that; outliers. It's tough to expect someone to be an outlier, that's my point.

I think he's always going to strike out a lot (obviously this year, relative to league average, he's improved, but he's still pretty bad). He very well may have such absurdly elite power that it might not matter, but it's hard to count on that.

Also, obviously we're going to get a better idea of what to expect at the end of the year, as his year numbers right now are still being skewed by little streaks. But that goes without saying, obviously.

[Bobbob1313]

http://hittrackeronline.com/index.ph...=sob&sort=desc

The 6 hardest hit home runs by Marlins all belong to Mike Stanton.

He hit ball hard. He be on pace for 40 HRs.

[dim]

I don't even care about cold streak Stanton. Hot streak Stanton makes baseball fun to watch.

[Fishfan79]

I stop watching the heat games for his at bat alone pretty much.

[Party]

MIA picked up his homer tonight on their radar.

[Namaste]

Stanton is the most exciting player on the Marlins for me.

JJ is incredible but not exciting. The only other person who gets me as excited as Stanton is Hanley when he goes the other way on an outside pitch like only Hanley can do. But those have been few and far between this year.


/whathaveyoudoneformelately

[emkayseven]

Honestly last night after Javquez folded like a little bitch I had the game on mute until Iron Mike came up to bat. He is so for me.

[Swifty]

He hits the ball harder than anyone I've ever seen. Even young Sheff.

[MiamiHomer]

Marlins Florida Marlins
Through his first 162 games, Mike Stanton has 38 homers, 77 extra-base hits and 100 RBIs. #MarlinsFacts

<3.

[Madman81]

Quite a rollercoaster player at this stage in his career. When he looks good, he seems to crush the ball without any effort. When he looks bad, man does it look bad.

[Miamarlin21]

Peter Gammons interviewed Mikey for MLB Network. I assume it's been on multiple times tonight but it's about to come on again.