Hanley Ramirez 2012: He Gone

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

What were his road splits before he hit 3 bombs this weekend?

[Mainge]

Probably worse.

[Fish Tank Frenzy]

Probably worse.

Interesting.

[DColts]

Oh.

[Namaste]

30.3 second HR trot vs Phillies on July 1st.

[emkayseven]

awesome

[HUGG]

Dropped to 5th in the lineup.

[Swifty]

I figured I'd at least post my brief thoughts on Hanley since it seems the writing is on the wall that he's on his way out (FSN asking if fans would be OK with a trade? LOL).

Coming into the year, my biggest concern was that his "power" seemed gone. Going back to 2010 his LD% was way down, and his traditional power numbers seemed to be trending downward. Now, coming off shoulder surgery, he's posting the second best LD% of his career (18.4%; 20.9% - 2006). His "baseball card stats" say he's on pace for a, more or less, Hanley kind of season (25 HR, 85 RBI). His advanced stats say he's absolutely having an "old" Hanley kind of season (18.4% LD; 39% GB), but that he's exceptionally unlucky on balls in play (posting the second year (and it's consecutive) of a BABIP below .300; .273). His career BABIP is .333 and excluding this year and last, has never had a BABIP below .327 in any full season and has had more seasons above .340 than below .327. That's unlucky. This is the 2 + 2 not adding up to 4 kind of stuff. You want to point to bad luck, this is it.

I think trading him will be a catastrophic mistake, not just because of the trash it seems we want to get back, but because of the kind of breakout he's going to have, whether it's this year or next, it's coming, and he's allayed almost all the fears I had of him coming into this year (is the power gone, can he still drive the ball, etc).

[Jay]

Yeah I glanced at his stats and everything is so close to his career rates except his BABIP. The only thing that I'll complain about is he is King more than he should.

[Namaste]

I figured I'd at least post my brief thoughts on Hanley since it seems the writing is on the wall that he's on his way out (FSN asking if fans would be OK with a trade? LOL).

Coming into the year, my biggest concern was that his "power" seemed gone. Going back to 2010 his LD% was way down, and his traditional power numbers seemed to be trending downward. Now, coming off shoulder surgery, he's posting the second best LD% of his career (18.4%; 20.9% - 2006). His "baseball card stats" say he's on pace for a, more or less, Hanley kind of season (25 HR, 85 RBI). His advanced stats say he's absolutely having an "old" Hanley kind of season (18.4% LD; 39% GB), but that he's exceptionally unlucky on balls in play (posting the second year (and it's consecutive) of a BABIP below .300; .273). His career BABIP is .333 and excluding this year and last, has never had a BABIP below .327 in any full season and has had more seasons above .340 than below .327. That's unlucky. This is the 2 + 2 not adding up to 4 kind of stuff. You want to point to bad luck, this is it.

I think trading him will be a catastrophic mistake, not just because of the trash it seems we want to get back, but because of the kind of breakout he's going to have, whether it's this year or next, it's coming, and he's allayed almost all the fears I had of him coming into this year (is the power gone, can he still drive the ball, etc).

So he's been unlucky in a John Buck kind of way?

[Swifty]

No, because the John Buck we got last year was a lot closer to the John Buck career average guy (and is almost what John Buck would be exactly if you remove his exceptionally "lucky" 2010 in Toronto).

And after all of that, this is what you take away? This board fucking sucks.

[Namaste]

The board sucks because I disagree with you?

Calm down.

[Ramp]

Buckshot would be an absolute stud this year if his BABIP were somewhat normal.

(This Board Sucks... TBS)

[Bobbob1313]

This board sucks for plenty of reasons. That might be one of them, but not because of that one. It's because everyone has done it before, including (and I'm almost certain of this) you, Swift.
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One thing to consider is that he is clearly no longer as fast as he was, which is going to known his BABIP down in some indeterminate way.

One way it would clearly manifest itself is on infield hits; he has six infield hits on 118 GB, for a 5.1% IFH rate. His career rate is 8.9% and it was higher at his peak, so we could say he has probably lost between 4-5 hits. That may not seem like much, but it's the difference between his current BABIP and a .290-.295 mark.

Of course, it's still a small enough sample size that this could all be the result of noise, and it will even out. Just saying, there are other factors beyond simply luck to consider.

[Miamarlin21]

Can someone try and reexplain this BABIP to me? Someone tried once before, but I just still don't understand it. Thanksss