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PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 88-74
Team WARP: 32
Team TAv: 0.272
Runs Scored: 779
Runs Allowed: 707
Team FRAA: -2.9
1) Mike Stanton has already shown so much in two years in the major leagues. How much improvement can we expect from him in 2012?
DC: Stanton just turned 23 this winter, so in terms of physical improvement, he could see a fair amount. In terms of his raw production, however, the improvement could be limited. You see, I worry about the Marlins' new ballpark. The fences for the new park will be deeper to Stanton's pull-side and in centerfield, so in order to keep up with his 30-35 home run production, he'll need to make physical gains that outweigh the effects of the deeper fences, which may be difficult to do.
MJ: I would also find him getting physically stronger to be fairly difficult. Since 2010, only one player (Jim Thome) has hit more home runs per fly ball than Stanton's 24 percent rate. In other words, he is already one of the most powerful hitters in baseball, if not the most powerful according to those numbers. Even at his age, it seems difficult to even imagine further improvement in that area.
Where we could see some additional improvement is perhaps in his strikeout rate. It did drop from 31.1 percent in 2010 to 27.6 percent last season, though this might have had more to do with the opposition pitching more carefully around him than it does with his selectivity at the plate. Still, there is optimism that further gains in the strikeout department will lift all ships in his batting line and make for further improvement in 2012.
2) Will Hanley Ramirez be able to adjust to his new position at third base? Are these changes going to affect his chances of bouncing back after his worst career season in 2011?
DC: A lot gets made of Hanley's poor 2011, but if you extrapolate his numbers to a full-season, the only thing that's really out-of-line with what he's done is his batting average, and it's not that hard to chalk that up to an unlucky BABIP—especially since he was dealing with some injuries.
MJ: Yes, as I pointed out earlier this offseason, Hanley was well on his way back to his projected numbers after Jack McKeon took over as manager. In fact, his final few weeks of 2011 were very similar to his 2010 season.
DC: That said, studies have shown that players tend to lose a bit of production when they move to a new position and may be at a larger risk of injury, and if Hanley is as dissatisfied with the move (as it has seemed like he is at times this winter), he could be at a greater risk.
MJ: It is difficult to tell what effect we'll see from Ramirez playing with countryman Jose Reyes. The two seem friendly enough, and one suspects that Reyes has reached out to Ramirez already based on how open to the third base idea Ramirez seems to suddenly be. The challenge of moving to a new position and returning to superstardom could make him expand his game or could collapse it.
DC: These kinds of unquantifiable things are tricky topics to tackle, but no good can come of an unhappy player. Even if we don't know exactly what that effect is, reason tells us that we should discount him some amount for it. That said, regression alone points to some degree of improvement, so as long as he can stay healthy and relatively happy, he should be all right.
MJ: Yes, while the baseball factors may seem easy to chalk up to regression next year, the intangible factors seem far more threatening.
DC: All of the personal question marks and the new park cut into what we'd expect for him and might ultimately lead to what some consider a disappointing season, but he'll at least be better than he was in 2011.
3) Which version is more likely to be the real Logan Morrison: 2010 or 2011?
DC: For all the drama around Morrison this season, I thought he was pretty good.
MJ: Morrison's bat has always been about patience and solid swings, and the question mark had always been about power. Last year, things were reversed.
DC: Yes, Morrison showed the ability to hit for power against major league pitching, and his plate discipline was still solid. Scouts I’ve spoken with like his swing, and while the new park could cut into his numbers a little, the new Marlins park is actually shallower than the old one in parts of right field—much better for a lefty like Morrison than a righty like Stanton or Hanley.
MJ: In 2012, I suspect we will see a player in between the 2010 version and the 2011 one. Morrison is still maturing and developing his power, so some of his gains from last year could be real. I do not think he will hit homers in 18 percent of his fly balls, but his career 13 percent mark looks appropriate to make him a decent power hitter.
DC: I like Morrison and think 2012 batting average gains could follow his 2011 power gains.
MJ: His BABIP is bound to jump up a tad, and the result should be something close to his .259/.351/.460 line, if not better.
4) Can Josh Johnson stay healthy?
DC: Well that's the question, isn't it? Any time a pitcher lands on the DL in one season, he's more likely than someone who stayed healthy to pay a repeat visit to the trainer's room, and shoulder injuries are among the most serious for a pitcher. Still, JJ dealt with inflammation and not something more serious like a tear, and Corey Dawkins expressed optimism for his future health prospects back in September. Expecting something like 140 innings wouldn't sound unreasonable to me.
MJ: I too see something similar to those innings. Anywhere around 140 to 160 innings would not be out of the question given his injury history, and that will have a serious effect on the Marlins' rotation. The team is depending on a full return of Josh Johnson to compete, and knocking out 40 to 60 innings from his expected output could leave them down a win or two—wins that could well leave them out of contention in the all-important 2012 season.
5) Are the additions of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell this offseason enough to make the Marlins contenders in 2012?
DC: It's easy to be optimistic if you're a Marlins fan after a winter like this and with the prospect of a healthy Josh Johnson. Spending money after years of penny-pinching can have that effect on a fan base. Yes, the team improves, but I just don't think they've improved enough to be true playoff contenders.
MJ: Objectivity may not be my strong suit here, but in my opinion, the Marlins have the necessary pieces to be on the fringes of contention. Adding Reyes and shifting Ramirez to third base should not only give the offense a big boost, but it should also improve the team defensively. Between those two positions, the Marlins are gaining a lot.
DC: Reyes is an impact player for sure, but the value of a relief pitcher—even a great one like Bell—is often overstated (Bell has averaged 1.1 WARP over the past three years).
MJ: Yes, the Bell signing stands out as something the Marlins will regret in the years to come. The Mark Buehrle addition was a solid, if unspectacular, move for the rotation, though.
DC: Yes, Buerhle is solid, but I don’t think solid brings them up to that next level. Buehrle is a number-two starter at best, more likely a three. And what has gone overlooked is the loss of the guy Buehrle is replacing, Javier Vazquez. I see that as a downgrade, really.
MJ: Maybe, although Vazquez was worth 2.2 WARP in 2011; Buehrle has averaged 2.4 WARP per season since 2009.
DC: That includes has abysmal first couple months, though. After he made some alterations, he absolutely dominated (as he has in the past) from June on, looking like the pitcher he once was. From 2005-2009, he averaged 4.0 WARP per year.
MJ: I do think Carlos Zambrano could be an upgrade over Chris Volstad, but perhaps enthusiasm should indeed be tempered. It is difficult to get excited about a team depending on a healthy Johnson and decent performances from new blood just to be on the outskirts of contention.
DC: Yes, I like Miami’s newfound aggressiveness, and they may well be heading in the right direction, but I don’t think the moves they ultimately made will be enough to overtake the Phillies and Braves. Plus, the Nationals had a better offseason than the Marlins, if we’re looking for underdog teams in this division.
Record: 88-74
Team WARP: 32
Team TAv: 0.272
Runs Scored: 779
Runs Allowed: 707
Team FRAA: -2.9
1) Mike Stanton has already shown so much in two years in the major leagues. How much improvement can we expect from him in 2012?
DC: Stanton just turned 23 this winter, so in terms of physical improvement, he could see a fair amount. In terms of his raw production, however, the improvement could be limited. You see, I worry about the Marlins' new ballpark. The fences for the new park will be deeper to Stanton's pull-side and in centerfield, so in order to keep up with his 30-35 home run production, he'll need to make physical gains that outweigh the effects of the deeper fences, which may be difficult to do.
MJ: I would also find him getting physically stronger to be fairly difficult. Since 2010, only one player (Jim Thome) has hit more home runs per fly ball than Stanton's 24 percent rate. In other words, he is already one of the most powerful hitters in baseball, if not the most powerful according to those numbers. Even at his age, it seems difficult to even imagine further improvement in that area.
Where we could see some additional improvement is perhaps in his strikeout rate. It did drop from 31.1 percent in 2010 to 27.6 percent last season, though this might have had more to do with the opposition pitching more carefully around him than it does with his selectivity at the plate. Still, there is optimism that further gains in the strikeout department will lift all ships in his batting line and make for further improvement in 2012.
2) Will Hanley Ramirez be able to adjust to his new position at third base? Are these changes going to affect his chances of bouncing back after his worst career season in 2011?
DC: A lot gets made of Hanley's poor 2011, but if you extrapolate his numbers to a full-season, the only thing that's really out-of-line with what he's done is his batting average, and it's not that hard to chalk that up to an unlucky BABIP—especially since he was dealing with some injuries.
MJ: Yes, as I pointed out earlier this offseason, Hanley was well on his way back to his projected numbers after Jack McKeon took over as manager. In fact, his final few weeks of 2011 were very similar to his 2010 season.
DC: That said, studies have shown that players tend to lose a bit of production when they move to a new position and may be at a larger risk of injury, and if Hanley is as dissatisfied with the move (as it has seemed like he is at times this winter), he could be at a greater risk.
MJ: It is difficult to tell what effect we'll see from Ramirez playing with countryman Jose Reyes. The two seem friendly enough, and one suspects that Reyes has reached out to Ramirez already based on how open to the third base idea Ramirez seems to suddenly be. The challenge of moving to a new position and returning to superstardom could make him expand his game or could collapse it.
DC: These kinds of unquantifiable things are tricky topics to tackle, but no good can come of an unhappy player. Even if we don't know exactly what that effect is, reason tells us that we should discount him some amount for it. That said, regression alone points to some degree of improvement, so as long as he can stay healthy and relatively happy, he should be all right.
MJ: Yes, while the baseball factors may seem easy to chalk up to regression next year, the intangible factors seem far more threatening.
DC: All of the personal question marks and the new park cut into what we'd expect for him and might ultimately lead to what some consider a disappointing season, but he'll at least be better than he was in 2011.
3) Which version is more likely to be the real Logan Morrison: 2010 or 2011?
DC: For all the drama around Morrison this season, I thought he was pretty good.
MJ: Morrison's bat has always been about patience and solid swings, and the question mark had always been about power. Last year, things were reversed.
DC: Yes, Morrison showed the ability to hit for power against major league pitching, and his plate discipline was still solid. Scouts I’ve spoken with like his swing, and while the new park could cut into his numbers a little, the new Marlins park is actually shallower than the old one in parts of right field—much better for a lefty like Morrison than a righty like Stanton or Hanley.
MJ: In 2012, I suspect we will see a player in between the 2010 version and the 2011 one. Morrison is still maturing and developing his power, so some of his gains from last year could be real. I do not think he will hit homers in 18 percent of his fly balls, but his career 13 percent mark looks appropriate to make him a decent power hitter.
DC: I like Morrison and think 2012 batting average gains could follow his 2011 power gains.
MJ: His BABIP is bound to jump up a tad, and the result should be something close to his .259/.351/.460 line, if not better.
4) Can Josh Johnson stay healthy?
DC: Well that's the question, isn't it? Any time a pitcher lands on the DL in one season, he's more likely than someone who stayed healthy to pay a repeat visit to the trainer's room, and shoulder injuries are among the most serious for a pitcher. Still, JJ dealt with inflammation and not something more serious like a tear, and Corey Dawkins expressed optimism for his future health prospects back in September. Expecting something like 140 innings wouldn't sound unreasonable to me.
MJ: I too see something similar to those innings. Anywhere around 140 to 160 innings would not be out of the question given his injury history, and that will have a serious effect on the Marlins' rotation. The team is depending on a full return of Josh Johnson to compete, and knocking out 40 to 60 innings from his expected output could leave them down a win or two—wins that could well leave them out of contention in the all-important 2012 season.
5) Are the additions of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell this offseason enough to make the Marlins contenders in 2012?
DC: It's easy to be optimistic if you're a Marlins fan after a winter like this and with the prospect of a healthy Josh Johnson. Spending money after years of penny-pinching can have that effect on a fan base. Yes, the team improves, but I just don't think they've improved enough to be true playoff contenders.
MJ: Objectivity may not be my strong suit here, but in my opinion, the Marlins have the necessary pieces to be on the fringes of contention. Adding Reyes and shifting Ramirez to third base should not only give the offense a big boost, but it should also improve the team defensively. Between those two positions, the Marlins are gaining a lot.
DC: Reyes is an impact player for sure, but the value of a relief pitcher—even a great one like Bell—is often overstated (Bell has averaged 1.1 WARP over the past three years).
MJ: Yes, the Bell signing stands out as something the Marlins will regret in the years to come. The Mark Buehrle addition was a solid, if unspectacular, move for the rotation, though.
DC: Yes, Buerhle is solid, but I don’t think solid brings them up to that next level. Buehrle is a number-two starter at best, more likely a three. And what has gone overlooked is the loss of the guy Buehrle is replacing, Javier Vazquez. I see that as a downgrade, really.
MJ: Maybe, although Vazquez was worth 2.2 WARP in 2011; Buehrle has averaged 2.4 WARP per season since 2009.
DC: That includes has abysmal first couple months, though. After he made some alterations, he absolutely dominated (as he has in the past) from June on, looking like the pitcher he once was. From 2005-2009, he averaged 4.0 WARP per year.
MJ: I do think Carlos Zambrano could be an upgrade over Chris Volstad, but perhaps enthusiasm should indeed be tempered. It is difficult to get excited about a team depending on a healthy Johnson and decent performances from new blood just to be on the outskirts of contention.
DC: Yes, I like Miami’s newfound aggressiveness, and they may well be heading in the right direction, but I don’t think the moves they ultimately made will be enough to overtake the Phillies and Braves. Plus, the Nationals had a better offseason than the Marlins, if we’re looking for underdog teams in this division.
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