Do the Miami Marlins Have a Winning Plan?

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

I haven't looked too much at the schedule, but where do we lean division-wise? I'd think a healthy slate against the Central would certainly help things

The number of games against the central will be the same.

I'd be more worried about the improved Nationals than anything else. They're not going to be the pushovers they have been the last forever. 18 games against them in addition to the Phillies and Braves should be really tough.

[Swifty]

Mets are going to be significantly worse (though the ballpark changes may give Wright good numbers) and the Phillies should be slightly worse. Can't worry about the Nats improvement without taking the entire division in context.

[Erick]

The number of games against the central will be the same.

I'd be more worried about the improved Nationals than anything else. They're not going to be the pushovers they have been the last forever. 18 games against them in addition to the Phillies and Braves should be really tough.

And those fanbases are probably saying the same thing about having to face the Marlins 18x. Point is, we have a legitimate shot this year.

[lou]

lou - I think we're completely on the same page.

Just curious, do you let Anibal walk? (Also, assume Zambrano's just a one-and-done here).

Well due to the huge amount of SP available next year (Baker, Blanton, Cain, Floyd, Greinke, Guthrie, Hamels, C. Lewis, Marcum, McCarthy, Anibal, Zambrano, and a lot of guys on club options like Haren, E. Santana, Shields, Baker, De La Rosa who some might get let go), I think it's realistic to think it’s a buyers market for SP due to the competition and Anibal will only require a 3 year deal, say $12 annually. Maybe I’m a bit optimistic and that 4th has to be guaranteed versus a vesting option 4th same amount for throwing innings sure. But giving this deal is huge based on our impending payroll. If we're thinking about what holes the organization needs to patch the next 3 years and whom can legitimately be put into those positions (pretty much just Yelich, and pray to god C. James and Realmuto), let's see what they got.

If I'm Beinfest, I would think about my future payroll structure.

2013

Buck ($6), Morrison (Club controlled "CC"), Infante ($4), Reyes ($10), Hanley ($15), Left Field ________, Center Field __________, Stanton ("CC"), Bonifacio ($4.25, arb estimate), Petersen ("CC"), Hayes ($750k, arb estimate), Dobbs ($1.5), 25th.whoever ("CC"), Johnson ($13.75), Buerhle ($11), Nolasco ($11.5), 4th SP ______________, James/LeBlanc 5th ("CC"), Bell ($9), Webb ($1 arb estimate), Cishek ("CC"), Ceda ("CC"), Dunn ("CC"), Sanabia/Veteran RHP Camp invite ("CC"), Rasmussen/Jennings/LeBlanc/Veteran Camp Invite 2nd Lefty ("CC").

So in 2013, realistically speaking, Marlins need in order of importance: another SP, long term CF, and a platoon mate for Bonifacio in LF. Rest of the team is pretty much put together as is (as I think they will build the pen from within). That's $92.75 million for 2013 for 22 expected players.

Notably missing; Gaby Sanchez, who I suspect is bumped off 1B for higher upside Morrison as he hits arbitration to save a few bucks. Chris Coghlan, another arbitration casualty and some team needing a 2B will go for it. Mujica is also gone because they don’t need him for $2.5. I'm going to say, they will be able to trade Gaby/Coghlan/Mujica/Dominguez for some sort of center fielder who resembles "Gabys" upside for cheap, so we're just going to say they get the CF that way. As for platoon bats in LF, I think they could find some guy to split with Bonifacio a little bit (and new guy in CF) and hit right handers for $3-4 million on a 1 year deal. Pretty standard. So we're just going to roundball it all, they will be able to fill 24 spots on the 25 man next year in house or through a simple trade/acquisition for $95 million, and only needing a legitimate 200 IP starting pitcher to add to the team.

2012 payroll is about $96 million NOT including Oviedo (let’s use half his figure and say hes cleared middle of the season so expected $99) and including say, giving Cespedes $4 million this year (escalating contract), which they wanted but didn't get the chance to do. I’m running on assumption Loria would authorize a low $100 this year, and years going forward.
I think it's safe to say 2013 overall payroll is gonna be the same , meaning they would have $6-8ish to spend on a SP in 2013. That’s ok though, because you can always back load.

2014

Catcher _________, Morrison ($3.5 million arb 1), Bonifacio ($5.5 million arb 3, now playing 2B), Reyes ($16), Hanley ($16), Yelich ("CC"), "New CF got for Gaby/Coghlan/Dominguez" ("CC"), Stanton ($6 million on a buyout); Petersen ("CC"), Hayes ($1.5 arb 2), Helms/Dobbs Bench Bat ($1.5), Bench middle infielder ($1), 25thMan ("CC"), Buerhle ($18), C. James ("CC"), SP 3 _________, SP 4 ___________, SP 5 ____________, Bell ($9), Webb ($2.25), Dunn ($1.25 arb 1), Cishek ($750k arb 1), Ceda ("CC"), Sanabia/CC RHP ("CC"), Rasumussen/Jennings ("CC")

This team costs $80.25 million, and needs a starting catcher (which could be Realmuto, but that's an absolutely best case scenario can't count on) and three starting pitchers. Since we've established payroll is about $100ish million they have approx. $20 million to spend on those four people. If I'm thinking like Larry, I'm signing a veteran catcher to split part time work on a 1 year deal and working in Hayes/Realmuto later in season. So let's put $3 of that to a catcher, and the rest to SP. Obviously, the Marlins can afford one big ticket item here with around $17 to spend, and will have to seriously figure out the other two spots because I don't see anything coming up from the minors. Maybe LeBlanc or Hand can turn into a 5 for real cheap, but Fernandez and the 2012 draft class is years away.

So hypothetical Anibal deal got him $8 million last year, let’s say that moves to $12 this year, meaning the Marlins have to figure out how to turn $5 million bucks into two starting pitchers. Not impossible, but it’s going to be very Freddy Garcia going on with that back end. This is the year where it really hurts they haven’t developed legitimate starting pitchers to come in and long time, and not have significant prospects to trade because they flat out need Yelich/Realmuto/Perio as you see through this post.

2015

Catcher Realmuto ("CC"), Morrison ($5.5 arb 2), 2B________________, Reyes ($22), 3B ______________, Yelich ("CC"), "New CF got for Gaby/Coghlan/Dominguez" ("CC"), Stanton ($9 from a buyout); Petersen ($1), Veteran Catcher ($2), Veteran Bench Bat ($1.5), Veteran Bench Infielder ($1), 25th Man ("CC"), Buerhle ($19), C. James ("CC"), SP ____________, SP _______________, SP ____________, Bell ($9, vested 4th year), Dunn ($2.5), Cishek ($1.75), Ceda ($1.25), Rasmussen/Jennings ("CC"), RP ____________, last pen reliever ("CC")

Getting harder to project who is going to make it so conservatively only adding in Realmuto as a farm developed starter and lowering the veteran catcher cost as more responsibility shifted his way (or just keep Hayes, whatever). This team costs roughly $79 million, and needs a starting 2B, 3B, three SP, and two relievers.

It's safe to say nothing is coming up from the farm for 2B and 3B, maybe Perio as a fringe 2B starting candidate, but nothing to count for. Considering they got a solid 2B starter for $4 million in Infante, let's throw that number at a 2B/3B hybrid guy for this year. Let's say Perio/CC option emerges for the other spot, and their 25th man is some freebie "andino" type they pick up somewhere to hold down the fort and just help contribute as clearly this team will score or not based on reyes, stanton, morrison, and yelich. That's pushing the team to around $84 million, and the same basic problem as 2014, needing three starting pitchers and maybe a reliever. Again, they could have one big ticket SP here, and have to figure out the other two. Hopefully Fernandez is ready for the 5 at this point, but that's about it.

Anibal is now $8-12- let’s say this year he moves to $13, meaning again, Marlins have $5 million bucks for two starting pitching spots. This is of course assuming the $100ish or slightly over spread on payroll. If they get the all star game (right 2015?) maybe they throw another $10 at payroll and bring in a “1 year Javy Vazquez/Roy Oswalt” guy to help out. It’s pretty much the missing piece as this is really nice on paper assuming Stanton/Morrison turn into the beasts we hope. Also, if that Bell option doesn’t vest (please god), they are in GREAT shape. But I have to imagine it will because that’s how they roll.

(2016 - Payroll is cake without Buerhle and Bell on the fucking team anymore even with a massive Reyes, Stanton, and probably Morrison at this point. They could afford a big $15 million year back loaded deal here)

So I know this is a very long answer to a short question, do I think they keep Anibal?

Yes if he is healthy and they don’t think they can get anyone better for that price. And if he isn't healthy, I would sign one of the huge list of free agent 2013 SP to a 3-4 year deal at or less than $8-12-13-15 (4/$48) way. They can afford that. They just better be real smart of finding those 4-5 starters in 2014/2015 and pray to god they get one out of James/Hand/Sanabia.

Also, note that massive massive draft picks are coming back in 2013 (Johnson, Nolasco, Buck, Infante), 2014 (Hanley, Bonifacio), and 2015 (Buerhle, Bell), so the team might have some things to trade in 2013/2014 to go for a pressing need listed above that I am trying to fill in house or throwing a few realistic “free agency” bucks at. And yes, I think the Marlins should pull a "Rays" here and let them all walk and take the picks and keep building with smart Carlos Pena/Luke Scott 1 year hole patchers, and trust in what they got. It’s a good core. It’s missing an ACE once JJ leaves, but not much they can do about that. I’m under the assumption JJ is either awesome and prices himself out of this payroll structure above, or, is hurt and not worth the money.

Overall, a consistent SP on a 3-4 year deal after 2012 perfectly matches what’s going on and their need for a rock solid 200 innings 2013-2015. They need to get creative with some back end starters. But that’s ok, because Reyes, Stanton, Morrison, Buerhle, “Anibal,” Bell and a good young bullpen, and some probable contributors out of Yelich, James, Realmuto, and trade acquisitions with Gaby/Coghlan/Mujica/Dominguez, is a pretty good core to fit in roll players around.

Anyways, I know this is way long. But yes. If not Anibal, some similarly situated SP they can get for 3-4 years at not more than $12 annual. It's the most important thing they need moving forward.

Also, thank god Cespedes is not on this team. If he was costing $8-9 some of these years, Marlins would be screwed at barely over $100 level because they'd be able to afford no pitching.

[Swifty]

Only two things I disagree with you on; I just don't see it being a buyer's market for starters. I don't think it'll every be a buyer's market. Too many teams with major money (since that list seems to be rapidly growing) will always need to plug "one or two" holes in the rotation and next offseason, you'll have the new Dodgers ownership group looking to curry favor for its new $1.5 billion investment. Figure Hamels and one more to LA next offseason (if Hamels hits FA).

I'm also not sure that going the draft pick route is the way to go. Simply put, our drafting is abysmal. I don't know if we can consistently get better that way. If the Beinfestball draft ('05) worked out, we've still got those cheapish starters that are ready to be dealt to reload the upper levels of the system and start the process fresh. I'm all for dealing guys like Ricky, Buck, Infante, Bonifacio, Buerhle and probably even JJ if they either (a) have value or (b) have priced themselves out of our plans, but I can't advocate letting them walk with the overwhelming evidence we have that suggests nothing good will come of it (and that's a multi-layered 'nothing good' - PR nightmare, wasted picks).

[lou]

As for next offseason, who knows. There are even more starters on the market next year, and guys like Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt couldn't get shit this year (both of whom not on my list above). I think there will be good deals to be had. Maybe not to Hamels, Grienke, and Cain who are obviously top of the heap and will get theirs, but I can't see how Anibal, McCarthy, or Marcum, or hell Edwin, don't take a 4/$45-50. If teams even need to go that far, which they probably won't. Edwin would have easily taken 3/$30 from a contender, which the Marlins are.

Also, yea a lot of the drafting is bad, but Stanton, Morrison, Gaby, Coghlan, Johnson, Volstad is a major league pitcher even if he didn't reach his ceiling... it's not abysmal. It's all a payroll thing. It's going to need to go $110-120 for them to keep one of Johnson/Hanley and plug everything else. They literally can't afford them with escalating payroll with Hanley, Reyes, Buerhle, Stanton, and Morrison, and solid amounts due to JJ and Bell. They just have to draft better. They have the core.

[TheMendozaLine]

[Mainge]

Championship.

[Jay]

Someone get these guys the proper size hoop.