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Do the Miami Marlins Have a Winning Plan?

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  • Fluff Piece: Do the Miami Marlins Have a Winning Plan?

    Pay attention to the Miami Marlins -- please.

    By Paul Beaty, AP

    The team from South Florida with the new stadium, new uniforms, new geographic identification, new manager and new players wants it that way. Like the disruptive kid in the back of school classroom, they've pretty much filled the time since September trying to get a little attention.

    We've noticed.

    "We are a walking distraction," says team president David Samson, prefacing that declaration with, "When Ozzie is your manager, and the team we have and the new ballpark ..."

    Ozzie Guillen was the first bit of dissonance, bringing his outspoken, often bleep-begging monologues from the Chicago White Sox to take over a team that historically has risen from irrelevance about once a decade, won a World Series, then shrunk back to its former near-anonymous life in a cavernous football stadium.

    No more. The new-look, hey-look Marlins have a state-of-the-art ballpark that's actually in the city they've finally made part of their name. They've transformed their roster, supplementing blossoming young talent with the likes of Jose Reyes, who if he doesn't become their best player at least is forcing reigning best player Hanley Ramirez to reluctantly change positions; closer Heath Bell, whose slide into the pitching mound at last year's All-Star Game got him more attention than his 132 saves over the past three seasons; and Carlos Zambrano, who played for the Cubs in Chicago but caused enough ruckus in his clubhouse to be heard across town by Guillen.

    They wooed Cuban free agent Yeonis Cespedes, seemingly a perfect fit for the community, and in less than 48 hours he signed about as far away from Miami and to play in about as antithetical a stadium as possible in Oakland.

    They have a relief pitcher, Jose Oviedo, who was caught playing under an assumed identity; a left fielder, Logan Morriion, whose prolific tweeting is momentarily overshadowed by controversy over being given a uniform number previously retired to honor deceased club executive Carl Barger; an owner, Jeffrey Loria, who opened the checkbook for the new players but also has been answering questions from the federal government about the funding plan for the new ballpark; and, most of all, a roster that may or may not be up to challenging the five-times-running NL East champion Philadelphia Phillies.

    Oh, and did we mention this will all play out on TV? The Marlins are the subject of Showtime's "The Franchise" series.

    It's part of a marketing effort Samson says will help make, "Being a Marlin cool. It's been 10 years of struggle in that."

    It's a series -- and a season -- he says is supposed to end, "With us in a pile," referring to a World Series celebration.

    Will it be pile or heap?

    The 90-loss Marlins of 2011 have 30 games to make up on the Phillies in the standings -- or a best-case 17-game leap from last place to the playoffs if MLB adds a second wild-card team in each league.

    They can make it up if:

    --.337 is closer to Reyes' batting average, as it was while winning the NL batting title last year, and not his number of at-bats. Remember, the new Marlins shortstop hasn't played more than 133 games in a season since 2008.

    --Ramirez at third base is more like the .342 batting champ of 2009 than last year's .243 disaster or they guy called out by teammates and former manager Fredi Gonzalez for questionable effort the previous season.

    --Mark Buehrle, who came along with Guillen from the White Sox, can replace Javier Vazquez, a free agent leaning toward retirement. They both won 13 games last season and Buehrle is a couple of years younger. And the odds are better for Zambrano to be an upgrade over 5-13 Chris Volstad, for whom he was traded. Zambrano won only nine last year but hasn't had a losing season since 2002.

    --The emergence of man-child right fielder Mike Stanton continues. Now 22, he's coming off a team-leading 34 homers and 87 RBI. Nearly as important, though, is whether the more unexpected breakout of Emilio Bonifacio (.296, 40 stolen bases) continues now that he's slated to be the everyday center fielder and if Morrison is more notable for abusing pitchers (23 homers last year) than using social media.

    --And maybe nothing is more important than Josh Johnson being the ace of the pitching staff again. He had a 1.64 ERA last season and allowed just 39 hits in 60 innings. Yes, 60 innings -- all he could muster because of a sore shoulder. Those numbers are no fluke. He's allowed less than a hit per inning since coming to the majors in 2005 and nearly a strikeout per inning. He has the 2010 ERA title and a couple of All-Star appearances. And he says he's throwing three times a week without pain.

    Whether or not Guillen will get the last word this season is debatable but he's the odds-on favorite to get in the most words. So, in case there's any question about where things standing in Miami, here's the manager's take:

    --On Ramirez: "I don't think he's 100% on board, not yet. ... Hanley Ramirez can be one of the best players in the National League. But he has to want to be."

    --On Zambrano: "I expect Carlos to be upset and throw Gatorade coolers. If you're going to talk about your teammates be ready for the biggest fight because I will fight you."

    --On Morrison: "If you win and he tweets a stupid thing, then people think it's funny. If you lose and LoMo tweets a stupid thing, then people think it's stupid."

    It could be worth tuning in.
    USA Today
    God would be expecting a first pitch breaking ball in the dirt because humans love to disappoint him.
    - Daft

  • #2
    Short term, it comes down to JJ and Zambrano. I think we, more or less, know what we're getting from the other 3. JJ makes 30 starts and Zambrano's velocity returns and we really may be the best team in the NL.

    Long term, I'm curious. Beinfest has never had a "blueprint." 2004 built around the rotation, the hell with the bullpen, quickly turned into compromising the rotation to improve the bullpen and bring back a player we implied was overpaid mere months earlier. 2005 was lavish spending, when a year before lavish spending keeps Pudge and the title team in tact. '06 was the search for a center-fielder after thinking we didn't need one, '10 was who needs a bullpen, '11 was all in on the bullpen. This team has all the pieces to be good next year, long term it will need a starter (two if we let Anibal walk) and I don't know if those can come from our system. If we're a perpetual free-agent player from here on, yeah, it's a winning plan, albeit an expensive one.

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    • #3
      I enjoyed Ozzie's take on LoMo and Z.

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      • #4
        "Get ready because I will fight you."

        That should be the team motto this year.

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        • #5
          Site Motto.

          "Get ready because we will fight you."

          /ducks

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          • #6
            If you're going to talk about your teammates be ready for the biggest fight because I will fight you."
            This is all kinds of awesome.

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            • #7
              So they need to improve 30 games?

              72 wins
              minus Dobbs/Cameron (1.8 WAR) as the defacto "3B starter" (Bonifacio shifting spots as for Cameron) and replacing them with a likely 5+ WAR Jose Reyes. Let's say up 3.5
              Adding Buerhle, losing Vazquez. Push
              Adding Bell, who cumulatively sets off a trickle down to the pen for a likely 2+ WAR growth
              Zambrano over Volstad, probably another 1 win
              Moving Hanley defensively off SS to 3B 1 win
              180 innings Josh Johnson +3.5
              Hanley back to 2010 offensively +3.5
              Stanton getting better +1
              Morrison getting much better +2
              Marlins improved benched pushing when Bonifacio is not as good. Push
              Cumulative push Gaby, Buck, Infante. Push
              Anibal and Nolasco push

              Absolutely best case scenario, but it's an 86-91 team spread. And I bet the Phillies are 5-10 worse because their offense blows, Worley will suck, and the Marlins/Nats/Braves all will be more competitive to pick off games. Not quite 30, but add someone big at the deadline and now we're talking.
              --------------------
              Originally posted by Swifty View Post
              Beinfest has never had a "blueprint."
              Not to be totally apologetic because he certainly dug his own grave by doing things like not buy out Cabrera which forced that trade, etc., but he's never had a budget to plan accordingly. They are in pretty good shape right now with a ton of payroll coming off the books next 2-3 even with the scary back loads of Reyes/Buerhle, and impending doom with Stanton if they do not buy him out before he hits HR number 40. They should be ok losing 2 SP (Anibal, Zambrano) next year as they can pick one up in FA and have the 5 be a James/LeBlanc/Sanabia battle which isn't completely terrible theoretically. The rest of the team is literally the same. Offense is completely set for 3 seasons so he can wait for Yelich, Realmuto, Perio, and I guess Dominguez to find themselves. Like you said, must develop young pitching our otherwise acquire it. If they can turn James into a starter and develop something, they are set.
              Last edited by lou; 02-16-2012, 07:08 PM. Reason: Doublepost Merged

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              • #8
                I haven't looked too much at the schedule, but where do we lean division-wise? I'd think a healthy slate against the Central would certainly help things

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                • #9
                  If they do a Cabrera and don't lock up Stanton I don't see myself buying any merchandise or attending any games. I know, who cares, but I couldn't stomach that.

                  I don't think they'll actually do a Cabrera though.

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                  • #10
                    Well, they've locked up their other two stars prior to FA, so I think it's fair to assume they will do it with him.
                    poop

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                    • #11
                      Rich Waltz on Zazlow now (790 AM)

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                      • #12
                        not a chance.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Bobbob1313 View Post
                          Well, they've locked up their other two stars prior to FA, so I think it's fair to assume they will do it with him.
                          Right. And he's club controlled 2013 so there is a ton of time.

                          But if he goes off this year, his comp turns from Justin Upton to Ryan Howard and that is a big difference in contract value. I guess it's not going to be cheap either way so who cares, but I think it would be cool if they just went for maximum savings. Same with Lomo. Buy low. He's going to hit.

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                          • #14
                            I'd be very surprised if he's not a mid-season extension like Hanley.
                            poop

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                            • #15
                              lou - I think we're completely on the same page.

                              Just curious, do you let Anibal walk? (Also, assume Zambrano's just a one-and-done here).

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