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A post on newballpark.org piqued my interest:
http://newballpark.org/2011/12/23/th...ball-is-money/
Florida, as a one team state, would blow the Giants mega market out of the water. The Census projects Florida's population will grow to 23 million people by 2020 and 28 million by 2030.
While Tampa is an over saturated professional sports market, I think in the end a ballpark will be built somewhere in near Downtown Tampa.
Orlando could be a destination, most of the projected growth in the state is in the area. However, it is unlikely St. Pete will allow them to get out of their lease (expires in 2027) at the Trop to move 70 miles* without a very messy court battle. 2015 has been thrown around by Forbes (2018 by the Tampa Tribune) as to when the buyout becomes tolerable to the Rays and MLB at ~$100 million. The financial viability of a buyout + move would all depend on how much money the Rays would have to contribute towards a new ballpark in Orlando. The market isn't a slam dunk, and at this point isn't much greater than Tampa Bay. The Rays would also have to deal with an entirely new process in lobbying for a new stadium. Orlando just built the Amway Center, and a city like San Antonio is likely to be more enthusiastic about throwing the kitchen sink at a new ballpark**.
If (huge if) the Rays are gone, or on the way out, by 2018-19 the Marlins would be looking at an enormous TV contract***. Any financial figure is pure speculation at this point, but ~18 million television households + no summer competing summer programming is insane. The Marlins would easily be in the top 10 in payroll on a regular basis. You can't help but wonder if the FO is secretly rooting for the Rays to fall on their faces in Tampa.
*Or they can say fuck it, and file for bankruptcy, which would cancel the lease.
**With the growing importance of TV territory, don't be surprised if the Rangers and Astros both ask MLB to be paid off for San Antonio. The Rangers signed a billion dollar TV last year and the Astros/Rockets are going to start their own RSN in a couple years. I think MLB would laugh it off, but the possibility is still there. The same can be said for the Mariners and Portland, which is key to their current TV contract and will likely play a large role in a rumored Mariners-owned RSN after 2015.
***The current one expires in 2020, with $146 million left to pay.
Moreover, the Giants have to be drooling at the prospect of the A’s leaving NorCal entirely. That would give the Giants completely control over the 7.2 million-strong Bay Area and 14.5 million-strong NorCal region. That last number would put the Giants in control of the largest one-team market in the nation, even larger than the whole of New England (which divides Connecticut between the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets). One baseball insider I spoke to said that if the Giants got the market to themselves, their franchise value could go up as much $500 million. A billion dollar franchise in SF. That’s the Giants’ gambit. It’s nakedly aggressive and greedy, and it shows in their vociferous defense of territorial rights.
Florida, as a one team state, would blow the Giants mega market out of the water. The Census projects Florida's population will grow to 23 million people by 2020 and 28 million by 2030.
While Tampa is an over saturated professional sports market, I think in the end a ballpark will be built somewhere in near Downtown Tampa.
Orlando could be a destination, most of the projected growth in the state is in the area. However, it is unlikely St. Pete will allow them to get out of their lease (expires in 2027) at the Trop to move 70 miles* without a very messy court battle. 2015 has been thrown around by Forbes (2018 by the Tampa Tribune) as to when the buyout becomes tolerable to the Rays and MLB at ~$100 million. The financial viability of a buyout + move would all depend on how much money the Rays would have to contribute towards a new ballpark in Orlando. The market isn't a slam dunk, and at this point isn't much greater than Tampa Bay. The Rays would also have to deal with an entirely new process in lobbying for a new stadium. Orlando just built the Amway Center, and a city like San Antonio is likely to be more enthusiastic about throwing the kitchen sink at a new ballpark**.
If (huge if) the Rays are gone, or on the way out, by 2018-19 the Marlins would be looking at an enormous TV contract***. Any financial figure is pure speculation at this point, but ~18 million television households + no summer competing summer programming is insane. The Marlins would easily be in the top 10 in payroll on a regular basis. You can't help but wonder if the FO is secretly rooting for the Rays to fall on their faces in Tampa.
*Or they can say fuck it, and file for bankruptcy, which would cancel the lease.
**With the growing importance of TV territory, don't be surprised if the Rangers and Astros both ask MLB to be paid off for San Antonio. The Rangers signed a billion dollar TV last year and the Astros/Rockets are going to start their own RSN in a couple years. I think MLB would laugh it off, but the possibility is still there. The same can be said for the Mariners and Portland, which is key to their current TV contract and will likely play a large role in a rumored Mariners-owned RSN after 2015.
***The current one expires in 2020, with $146 million left to pay.
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