Marlins Sign Jose Reyes to 6 year, $106 Million Deal

[lou]

I'd imagine there would be very beneficial vesting/club options attached to any 3/$60 type deal. Gives Reyes up front, gives Marlins potential backend bargain. That's what you call the win-win.

Say, 3/$60,
Option 4th - $15 million / $ 5 buyout
Option 5th - $12 million / $ 3 buyout
Option 6th - $10 million / $ 1 buyout

3 years - $65 - annual salary - $21.6
4 years - $78 - $19.5
5 years - $88 - $17.6
6 years - $97 - $16.2

Marlins pay more upfront to get the ability to duck out of the deal after 3-4 years than guarantee a full 5-6 sort of thing. That's worth more than being stuck with an albatross 5 years down the road.

Maybe the numbers are off so no one bitch at that, just throwing out a hypothetical.

[Swifty]

I have a hard time imagining an agent allowing Reyes to take what amounts to a partially guaranteed $90 million contract.

But your proposal makes a ton of sense for the Marlins.

[lou]

I have a hard time imagining an agent allowing Reyes to take what amounts to a partially guaranteed $90 million contract.

I don't if you get $60+ in 3 years, you are killing your annual rate and your investment potential isn't comparable to a deal that scales up like say $14-15-16-20-22 or whatever. (let alone lack of florida taxes which will add some to the net). Likewise, if you're healthy, they could all write the deal where he would still get the 'overall' number over 5-6 years, it's just spaced out differently. Marlins get the ability to escape, Reyes gets a very legitimate front loaded deal and if healthy, the overall 5-6 year deal.

You are really kidding yourself if you don't think Reyes, who has serious health concerns, wouldn't be attracted to a 3/$65 deal with club friendly options on the back end that would get him to the overall number he wants if healthy, versus getting say 5/$85 as is from Milwaukee. Yea, Reyes gambles a little bit, but it's a real nice gamble with netting all of it in 3 years (and it's not like even if he was injured and Marlins let him loose after 3, he wouldn't get paid afterwards. They are projecting Grady to make $7-9 in free agency and Reyes would be 31).

Just saying, it's interesting. I look forward to seeing a real offer and seeing if they are going to be creative.

And secondly, if they really want to frontload something like this, why not give Pujols something incredible like 4/$132 and lock him in for 2015 all star game (they are getting that right?). That avoids all the back end problems.

[DropkickAlex]

If he signs a 3 contract with team options at the end, it would be one of the best contracts ever. Especially for the Marlins. He'd be 32? by the end of it and his legs wouldn't be as valuable to him/team.

[lou]

If he signs a 3 contract with team options at the end, it would be one of the best contracts ever. Especially for the Marlins. He'd be 32? by the end of it and his legs wouldn't be as valuable to him/team.

Or it would be the worst contract ever because the team would be on the hook for $60+ million in 3 years for a guy who has no knees.

There is something to be said at being able to escape the deal after 3 years if he doesn't work out so this doesn't become a "Soriano" situation which is crushing the Cubs, but if Reyes doesn't work out, we're talking the Marlins are completely fucked for 2013-2014. And that's a lot of momentum lost for the new building.

It's a gamble. This isn't a best contract Evan Longoria / Dan Haren situation, but I wouldn't be to opposed to something like this because this because longterm, I am more concerned about guaranteed money 15-16-17 which really kills you, rather than the short term where this organization still has a few club controlled and early arb years for core players to take this sort of hit.

[DropkickAlex]

I agree lou, but I'm assuming he's going to get 15-18 anyway per year. I rather raise it to 20 for 3 then 15-18 for 6.

[Party]

This also works perfectly in the efforts to resign the current core in a few years. The plan should be to squeak out a profit over the next three years, build a kick ass team, build good will with the fanbase and then begin a gradual withdrawal in the three years after that where payroll is slightly below league average.

[Metes]

Beef, ya think if we sign Reyes there will be chants of JOOOOOOOOOO OHH OHH OHHH OHHHHHHHZAAAAYYYY

[MiamiHomer]

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
no 1 should be shocked if reyes takes his talents to south beach. (tho he wont make a tv show out of it)

SI_JonHeyman Jon Heyman
one gm on the fair price for ultra-talented, oft-injured reyes: $100 mil for 5 yrs. (sounds about right to me, too)

twit.

[Beef]

Nope, Metes.

JOZAAY JOZAY JOZAY JOZAY... JOOZAAAAAAY.... JOOZAAAAAAY. No Big 10 MLS people down here.
--------------------
Like the ole song, Metes

[Swifty]

I don't if you get $60+ in 3 years, you are killing your annual rate and your investment potential isn't comparable to a deal that scales up like say $14-15-16-20-22 or whatever. (let alone lack of florida taxes which will add some to the net). Likewise, if you're healthy, they could all write the deal where he would still get the 'overall' number over 5-6 years, it's just spaced out differently. Marlins get the ability to escape, Reyes gets a very legitimate front loaded deal and if healthy, the overall 5-6 year deal.

You are really kidding yourself if you don't think Reyes, who has serious health concerns, wouldn't be attracted to a 3/$65 deal with club friendly options on the back end that would get him to the overall number he wants if healthy, versus getting say 5/$85 as is from Milwaukee. Yea, Reyes gambles a little bit, but it's a real nice gamble with netting all of it in 3 years (and it's not like even if he was injured and Marlins let him loose after 3, he wouldn't get paid afterwards. They are projecting Grady to make $7-9 in free agency and Reyes would be 31).

Just saying, it's interesting. I look forward to seeing a real offer and seeing if they are going to be creative.

And secondly, if they really want to frontload something like this, why not give Pujols something incredible like 4/$132 and lock him in for 2015 all star game (they are getting that right?). That avoids all the back end problems.

Putting on an agent hat, the problem with a short term deal like you've proposed is that in the possible event he outperforms it, he sees no benefit. I think he sees tremendous value in the 3 year deal because it rewards him for 2011 yet still allows him to make good for the $100 million guarantee I think he's seeking when he'd be a relatively young 31. You're also talking about a guy who's made roughly $40 million playing baseball and either gets to sign one or two more "big" contracts depending on the length of this one. I don't think he's going to want to compromise his earning potential for his age 31-34 seasons. Taking the 'play well to get 3 below market options picked up' contract isn't player friendly no matter how big years 1-3 might be. You might get 1 option like that in there, but not 3.

PS: I hope he takes it. Yes, I think it opens up some problems with Hanley and if the position switch doesn't work out what do you do in terms of letting the superior offensive player (which Hanley is) potentially leave because of a deal you made, but in terms of what it does for 2012, it's exciting. Reyes isn't my first choice, nor really my second choice but if he takes a 3 year deal, that's tough to get upset about.

[MiamiHomer]

[Ramp]

2008 <- Best OPS+ of his career, 190
2009 <- Second best OPS+ of his career, 189
2010 <- 5th best OPS+ of his 11 year career, 173 (And better than his career OPS+ of 170)
2011 <- One of four seasons where his OPS+ was in the 150's (And, for the final four months of the season, he was better than his career OPS at 172)

That's unfair to say "He didn't stay being a 190 OPS+ and has declined since then" when all but one of those years should bring any concern (And for 2/3rds of the season, he was still bashing it better than his career)..

OPS+ went down. AVG down. OBP down. SLG down. OPS down. walk rates down. WAR down.

Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's seriously something though. His numbers have gone down each season for the last four.

[MiamiHomer]

After touring Mark Buehrle around South Beach yesterday, the Florida Marlins are meeting with Jose Reyes today. Reyes is one of the players the Marlins are attempting to make a big push for this offseason, and if the recent rumor is correct, they're taking an unusual approach to wooing him:

Yet Mets people on Tuesday privately downplayed the significance of the Marlins' aggressiveness. One person said he heard they plan to offer Reyes only a three-year deal at a high annual average, presumably more than $20 million a year. (New York Daily News)

"Downplaying their aggressiveness"? I think not. The standard assumption has been that Reyes will get a contract this offseason for 5-7 years for around $100 million, meaning he'd likely not top an average of $20 million/year. If the Marlins are willing to offer Reyes a higher average salary for such a short period of time, not only would Reyes become the highest paid shortstop in the game, but he'd get another chance at signing a lucrative contract.

At 28 years old, Reyes would only be 31 at the end of his hypothetical three-year deal with the Marlins. At that point, Reyes could seek a long-term deal that would pay him well into his late 30s. Considering that the free agent market inflates over time -- and that Reyes would have three peak years to prove his superstar status -- that long-term deal could meet or exceed what he's hoping to get right now.

But if Reyes decided to shoot for a 5-7 year deal right now for a lower annual salary, he would end up a free agent again around the age of 33-35. Shortstops don't always age well, and considering he's had a checkered injury history, it's difficult to say how much teams would be willing to invest in a 35-year-old Reyes. Odds are, though, he wouldn't get another long term deal, and he wouldn't make as much money as the Marlins are offering right now.

This is a savvy move by the Marlins. If Reyes accepts the deal, it gives them a star player but doesn't commit them to him over a long period of time, minimizing the risk involved in signing the injury-prone Reyes. It's also a more attractive offer than it seems at first glance, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if Reyes jumps at the chance to make huge money both now and in three years.

So to those Mets executives that tried to write off the Marlins: don't. They're being more aggressive than you think.

Rumor: Marlins To Offer Jose Reyes Three Year Deal, Piles Of Money

[Blackout Pact]

This is going to be fun.