General FA: Beinfest Says Rotation Set

[Erick]

So, in 2012, we're paying Bell what we would've had to pay Juanky in arbritration. Cool.

[emkayseven]

That Bell deal is pretty terrific

[BigGameFish]

What's the FO's outlook right now? I'm assuming we're looking to add quality SP via trade...but without the addition of any big bats since Reyes how much do we give up? And which SPs are being shopped in the market? Lastly..Javy Vasquez? I'd like to see him back in the rotation over Volstad and Nolasco.

[lou]

Can we get our '12 payroll figures with these new numbers posted? Thanksya.

C John Buck $6,000,000
1B Gaby Sanchez $500,000
2B Omar Infante $4,000,000
3B Hanley Ramirez $15,000,000
SS Jose Reyes $10,000,000
LF Logan Morrison $490,000
CF Emilio Bonifacio $2,000,000 (arb estimate)
RF Mike Stanton $500,000
B Brett Hayes $490,000
B Bryan Petersen $480,000
B Chris Coghlan $550,000
B Scott Cousins $490,000
B Matt Dominguez $480,000

SP Josh Johnson $13,750,000
SP Mark Buerhle $14,500,000 ($58 divided by 4, I suspect this will go lower)
SP Ricky Nolasco $9,000,000
SP Anibal Sanchez $7,500,000 (arb estimate)
SP Chris Volstad $2,600,000 (arb estimate)
RP Heath Bell $6,000,000
RP Edward Mujica $1,600,000 (arb estimate)
RP Randy Choate $1,500,000
RP Ryan Webb $500,000
RP Mike Dunn $490,000
RP Steve Cishek $490,000
RP Jose Ceda $480,000

$99,390,000,

Notes:

Oviedo projection $5,750,000
Badenhop projection $1,100,000
D. Murphy projection $750,000
Everyone else in the minors (Sanabia, Hand, LeBlanc) would be making $480-490k.

I just included Cousins and Dominguez on the bench to show it's likely to be under $100 once we figure out Buerhle's number, all the official arb and club controlled numbers, etc. Also, I had written in my notes Buck's signing bonus ($1.5) is carried over 3 years, so he could be $500k more expensive, but I just did a little research and couldn't find it again so I removed it. Lastly, if you're wondering why Coghlan is slotted higher than other club controllers, Marlins gave him a ROY bonus and that carries forward on new tenders. Relatively insignificant, just saying.
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I suspect Buerhle comes in $2-3 lower and as of now and despite the payroll estimate, I think they'll keep Badenhop and send Ceda to AAA. Marlins relievers last year innings:

Mujica 76
Nunez 64.1
Badenhop 63.2
Dunn 63
Sanches 56.1
Cishek 54.2
Webb 50.2
Hensley 25.2
Choate 24.2
Ceda 20.1
Hatcher 10.1
Everyone else 5.2
=515 innings, which has been about average for them last few years.

I'm counting Choate as the 7th RP here for calculating Marlins top 7 innings pitched, leaving 112.2 innings for not top 7 relievers. That's a lot. You'd expect the rotation to be significantly better with JJ, Buerhle, and more consistency from the 5, but we're still probably talking best case 60-75 innings for relievers 8+ in the minors, without major injuries. This would put them around 2003 level of bullpen innings (466 innings), when they had the really good rotation. Probably a smart idea to start the year with Badenhop in the pen, and have Ceda in AAA and ready to come up to eat all of those extra pen innings. Badenhop has a 3 year split 203.1 innings, 3.94 era, 1.31 whip, 6.9 K/9, 11 HR, .257 BAA. Better than you thought I'm sure. I'm surprised. I'd like to just not DFA that.

I think penciling in a spread of this, is pretty nice. Marlins could have their 8th best reliever be better than most teams 4th or 5th guy. 50 less innings than 2011, which is optimistic, but relatively fair. No one would probably be overworked so adding 5 or 10 to a few of them probably still keeps everyone healthy.

Mujica 70
Bell 65
Badenhop 60
Dunn 60
Webb 60
Cishek 55
Choate 30
Ceda 50
Scrubs 15

Which leaves just two bench bats and Volstad as the only payroll unknowns. I think it's pretty obvious the payroll number is $100, Pujols was considered "special money," and they'll fit in those last 3-4 guys (Volstad/5th SP, Badenhop/RP 7, Bench Bat, Bench Bat) somehow into that number. They have some flexibility.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Keeping it right around $100 million (but not over) goes with what Samson said on the LeBetard show a couple weeks ago. We may be pretty much done aside from DFAing someone to make room for Buehrle and possibly getting a little more depth options for some of the guys like Oveido and West who likely won't be on the team for various reasons. That and possibly adding a bench bat. That also goes along with Samson saying they probably will make some smaller moves but nothing to the extent of the Reyes, Bell, Buerhle signings.

[Miamarlin21]

With a $100,000,000 payroll, where would that rank us?

[jOOj]

Top 12 for sure. Not bad skippy!

[HUGG]

Woulda been 13th last season.

[jOOj]

Gotta think St. Louis drops out of the top 10. /too soon

[tr305]

Wait just a a got damn minute, John Buck makes $6milllion a year ? Am I reading this right ?

[MiamiHomer]

...

[Beef]

:-)

[Miamarlin21]

Wait just a a got damn minute, John Buck makes $6milllion a year ? Am I reading this right ?

He did sign a three-year, $18 million deal. ($4.5 in 2011, $6 in 2012 and 2013 and a $1.5 signing bonus.)

[emkayseven]

shoulda traded him for lackey
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tr305, not john buck

[tr305]

Buck might be the most overpaid human on earth.