Offensive 'Outburst' Wasted As Leo Nunez Blows Yet Another Save

[Todd]

There are very few Ramp doesnt love.

[Bobbob1313]

Call me crazy, but bobbob not gon like this post of yours, Fester

I'm all for getting rid of Leo Nunez to free up the $6 mil he'll make next year, but I think it's silly to say he's standing in the way of us making the playoffs.

[AdamRavs]

Its been a collective effort this yr as to why we have sucked. We have lost in so many ways to say Leo is the reason considering he has blown only 6 games is silly. He's no Jorge Julio

[Bobbob1313]

I don't even think anyone's saying that he's the reason this year.

But short of us picking up an absolute shut down closer, I don't think any of the roughly similar pitchers we have as back end guys will make a big difference.

The biggest advantage for the Marlins penwise is what from like 1-9, there's roughly very little drop off in quality, all the way down to Ceda and Cishek and those types of guys. We don't necessarily have a totally lights out option, but we've got depth. So I'm fine with getting rid of Nunez because I think we can more efficiently divert our resources elsewhere, given that depth.

But if Leo's not going to get us into the playoffs, neither are any of our other options within the organization. And does anyone want to go spend the $9 mil it's going to take to get Heath Bell or someone here, or trade a piece for one? I don't want to.

My point is, there's lots of other things I'd worry about before an elite closer.

[Party]

If the Front Office thinks the other 24 guys on the roster constitute a playoff team, I don't want Nunez getting the ball to finish off games. He's not preventing us from making the playoffs, but he doesn't not belong in that role on a playoff team. Two completely different things, no?

[Erick]

Steve Cishek has pitched like an elite reliever in his 44.2 career big league innings, for what it's worth. Not saying that's a guarantee to continue long-term, but he's been that guy so far.

If we're experimenting with this, Cishek is the best option.

-I think Mujica can do it, but I don't think he'd be much better than Nunez, due to his tendency of giving up the long ball.

-I do not think Dunn can do it. Too many walks; too many HR's.

-Webb keeps the ball in the park, but allows way too many baserunners.

-Ceda needs more time to prove himself as a big league reliever.


Either way, Nunez is staying most likely. If they felt like trading him, last month would have made a lot of sense.

[Bobbob1313]

If the other 24 guys on the team constitute 96% of a playoff team, I would hope I have enough options to where I can not use Leo in a high leverage role night after night. As the team is presently constructed, I don't think anyone else represents a real upgrade in the spot, so I don't care which of them is closing. They're all roughly the same. I don't think 70 innings from Ryan Webb or Edward Mujica in the 9th inning instead of Leo are going to make a lick of difference in 2012, and I don't think acquiring a legitimate upgrade is worth it for this team. The cost is too high for relatively minor upgrades in the overall team's records.

If you're saying that Leo is disposable, I totally agree. I just don't think "replacing him" should be an offseason priority. Get rid of the $6m you're going to pay him, plug in Ceda in the middle innings, hand the ball to Webb or Mujica in the 9th, and spend Leo's money on a league average 5th starter to throw 200 innings so we don't have to rely on Chris Volstad anymore. That's a real upgrade to the team. But the cost of a true replacement for Leo on the open market is too high to be a legitimate concern for this team.

We're on the same page, at the end; if this looks like a 95 win team next year, we both hope Leo's not the closer. We just arrive at the reasoning differently.
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Steve Cishek has pitched like an elite reliever in his 44.2 career big league innings, for what it's worth. Not saying that's a guarantee to continue long-term, but he's been that guy so far.

If we're experimenting with this, Cishek is the best option.

-I think Mujica can do it, but I don't think he'd be much better than Nunez, due to his tendency of giving up the long ball.

-I do not think Dunn can do it. Too many walks; too many HR's.

-Webb keeps the ball in the park, but allows way too many baserunners.

-Ceda needs more time to prove himself as a big league reliever.


Either way, Nunez is staying most likely. If they felt like trading him, last month would have made a lot of sense.

The issue with talking about rookie relievers is the time span is so small, it's literally the difference between a start having made two starts and a starter having made 7. Would you feel comfortable making a judgment based on those samples?

The leaps Cishek has made in his time in the majors compared to his minor league numbers (+1 K/9, +1.5 BB/9 1/2xHR/9) may be real, but a lot of it points to at least some regression on the way. I'm not ready to say he's even close to an elite reliever, given, as I've said, his 7 starts worth of pitching.

That's why judging relievers is so difficult. If you take out Leo's last 3 appearances, he has a 3.35 ERA this year and everyone's happy. Super small sample sizes come into play, so even a full season's worth of pitching is generally the equivalent of 1/3 of a year starting.

It's too early to start making Cishek out to be an elite reliever. Maybe he will be, or maybe he'll be Dan Meyer, Justin Miller, Doug Waechter, Joe Nelson. Or maybe he won't be any of those guys, but he'll be Burke Badenhop, which is a lot closer to his minor league numbers. Or maybe he'll continue to be a borderline elite reliever. It's way too early to say.