Speculation: Marlins Trade Deadline Thread: Comes And Goes Without A Move

[MiamiHomer]

The Marlins have lost seven in a row, and they're now 6.5 games out in the wild card. It's time to think about selling.

• Closer Leo Nunez has battled a stiff back lately and endured a few rough outings in the last month or so. His numbers remain strong overall and he's under team control through 2012, so a quality prospect or two could be extracted.
  
• The Marlins don't have impending free agents in their bullpen, but I could picture a few arbitration eligible types being available. That might mean Clay Hensley if he returns strong in July, or Brian Sanches and Edward Mujica. Don't expect the Marlins to go overboard dismantling their pen though, as improving it was a major focus of last offseason.
  
• Omar Infante, a big part of the Dan Uggla trade, has struggled to a .253/.297/.306 line on the season. If he picks it up a bit there could be mild interest in the versatile 29-year-old.
  
• Bench players Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs could become available. Dobbs' bat was quite useful in the first two months of the season.
  
• I liked the Javier Vazquez signing at the time, but he has a 6.85 ERA to date and hasn't shown much in the way of improvement. At $7MM, a release is more likely than a trade.

If The Marlins Become Sellers

[Omar]

If we do fall out of it (and there's still time to turn it around, although that clock seems to be ticking faster and faster by the inning), I would very much like to keep as much of the bullpen intact as possible. I would be entirely for moving Nuñez for some value, but strong pens are hard to come by.

[MiamiHomer]

I didn't get the idea of moving Mujica who's been one of the best in our pen.

[Erick]

If we do fall out of it (and there's still time to turn it around, although that clock seems to be ticking faster and faster by the inning), I would very much like to keep as much of the bullpen intact as possible. I would be entirely for moving Nuñez for some value, but strong pens are hard to come by.

Not really.
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I didn't get the idea of moving Mujica who's been one of the best in our pen.

Mid-relief bullpen arms are replaceable.

[AdamRavs]

Not really? How is a strong pen not hard to come by? Our pen is the reason we have lost a lot of games the last few years.. Also the reason teams are looking for bullpen arms.. Why I responded to Ericks comment I dunno. Its like bashing your head into a brick wall repeatedly.

[Erick]

Not really? How is a strong pen not hard to come by? Our pen is the reason we have lost a lot of games the last few years.. Also the reason teams are looking for bullpen arms.. Why I responded to Ericks comment I dunno. Its like bashing your head into a brick wall repeatedly.

Just because teams overvalue bullpen arms doesn't mean anything. Every offseason, teams overpay/overvalue relievers and every offseason, that fails.

Teams with strong bullpens were either built from within (Braves), or they were acquired as no-names and became something as they developed with their respective teams (Padres).

There's no need to overvalue bullpen arms.

If we're talking about dominant bullpen arms, sure. But guys like Leo Nunez and Edward Mujica are replaceable.

If anything, the Marlins gave up a bit too much to acquire the replaceable bullpen arms they acquired this offseason; they overreacted a bit to last year's situation.

[Chewford]

Bench players Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs could become available.

lol

[Erick]

lol

I hadn't noticed that.

[MiamiHomer]

I believe this will gain steam in the next few weeks.

[lou]

Dobbs is a given. He'll be gone for a double AA reliever in July and round out someones bench. Infante will be moved as he'll help someones bench dramatically, and probably magically start hitting as his BABIP should be 40 points higher. Another AA reliever I'm sure. Javy has a full no trade clause, and was adamant about it, as he doesn't want to move around. Besides the fact he sucks this year, it would be unlikely to move him regardless. I could see Jose Lopez having a hot month and turning into more AA relievers as well.

Now the bullpen, I don't think anything dramatic happens. And really thinking about it, I think we should keep Leo and Mujica unless blown away with a top 100 level prospect.

Thinking about the pen, just listing our assets.

Contract - Choate, $1.5
Arb3 - Nunez, probably looking $6 million (all are estimations that follow)
Arb2 - Hensley, $1.75 (injury is going to kill a big raise)
Arb2 - Mujica, $1.75
Arb2 - Badenhop - $1.5 (he is off a Super 2, so we still have 3 years as opposed to 2 of control)
Arb1 - Sanches - $1.25
CC3 - Webb
CC2 - Dunn (option)
CC1 - Cishek, Ceda (both options)
2nd Unit - Marinez, Jennings, Sanabia, Rasmussen

If we're thinking about pen construction, Dunn, Choate, and Webb are locks, and I think the last spot will be reserved for top young arm/wiley camp veteran (i.e., Cishek, Ceda, Vagabond) with an option for flexibility, so we're probably looking at three spots to fill via our five arbitration relievers and free agency.

The thing with Nunez is, we can afford that salary next year, and in 2013 we'd get double draft pick compensation when he leaves via free agency. Looking at the other relievers in 2013, I think it's very arguable Nunez could be one of the top options out there (Mike Adams, Brandon League only guys I'd probably take over him) where he'd get signed as long as his contract demands are reasonable. He's a type A lock racking up 30 saves in years 5-6, and hopefully he'd be seeing the contract next year and be awesome. I'm not a huge fan, but I think we need to keep him. His experience counts for something even if you believe in "relievers can pitch in any innings" theory. I'd rather stick with the devil we know and get something like picks 22 and 42 in 2013's draft. We need to rebuild the farm a bit, and it's not coming through trade. Mujica has a sub 1 whip for his last 100+ innings. That one is a no brainer. I really can't see a team moving one of their top 3-4 prospects for either of them, so they are keepers. It's going to be a buyers market with relievers with so many hitting free agency next year.

Which pretty much leaves who do you like better between Hopper and Sanches. Hensley, no matter how good he was, is the oldest and now most damaged. Best case scenario for us he comes back soon, has a strong few weeks, and we move him for a nominal guy. Personally, I'm keeping Badenhop over Sanches due mainly to Sanches walk totals. It's pretty impossible to project which of those two is the better bet longterm, but got to hang your hat on something.

I think a 2012 pen, very much like this years, of Nunez, Dunn, Mujica, Webb, Choate, Badenhop, and Cishek/Ceda, with some legit help coming with the "2nd unit" guys ain't so bad. Bullpen costs $12 million total and we get two top 50 draft picks in 2013. Can always add at the deadline if need be.

[Erick]

If last year is any indication, Leo should be traded.

Matt Capps, Octavio Dotel, etc. brought plenty of value at the trade deadline, and Leo is better than those guys.

Considering there are rumors that the Yankees are potentially a fit for KRod, I don't see why they wouldn't take on Leo Nunez. I think that's a good fit for both sides, considering the Yankees prospect depth at the catcher position.

If the Marlins feel like it's essential to have experience in the backend of the pen, they can give another reliever who's tradeable/potential Type A after '12 a 1-year deal and get the draft picks that way. A guy like Kyle Farnsworth, for example.

[MiamiHomer]

Ken Rosenthal video

He mentions that Anibal and Ricky are guys the Marlins could potentially shop. Another thing he mentions outside of the Marlins is that the Rockies could consider a deal for Ubaldo Jimenez.

[DropkickAlex]

I don't see us trading any of them. I only see us parting with bullpen guys.

[Valid]

Trading Sanchez or Nolasco would be very stupid.

[Jay]

I think we may consider shopping Volstad or Vazquez before Ricky or Anibal. But if presented the right deal, you do it. But the front office knows they must put a team that has no excuses of not making the postseason in 2012 or at least I hope they know that.