Bleacher Report: Marlins Should Trade for David Wright

[lou]

I have a problem with these numbers, and I've never been able to put my finger on it.

I guess it's that it tries to normalize value in a way that doesn't work. I feel like it overvalues marginal wins from mediocre players and undervalues good-to-elite players.

But I could be wrong.

I think part of the problem is it doesn't work off the market rate in free agency, i.e. actual pricing. Market rate, a normal 1.5-2 WAR guy is probably only going to get $4-6 a year, and a 4-5 WAR Uggla gets $13ish. Fan graphs thinks Uggla is $20 million player just because he falls on a certain place on a scatterplot. It's an argument for value based on performance, and not on the perception of value which is non-statistical, but effects prices so much more.