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When the Philadelphia Phillies started their streak of four National League East titles, the Mets were their primary rival. Last season, the Atlanta Braves led the division into September and snagged the wild card. The Washington Nationals have been annual also-rans.
Forecast
Tyler Kepner makes his predictions for the National League season.
Order of Finish
EAST
Phillies, Marlins (wild card), Braves, Nationals, Mets
CENTRAL
Reds, Brewers, Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates
WEST
Giants, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks
N.L.C.S.
Giants over Phillies
M.V.P.
Mike Stanton, Marlins
CY YOUNG AWARD
Tim Lincecum, Giants
But what about the Florida Marlins, the mystery team of the N.L.? They are underfinanced, prodded by Major League Baseball and the union to increase spending before last season. They are unloved, ranking last in the league in attendance five years running as they build a retractable-roof ballpark for 2012.
They are also unpredictable, and that makes them dangerous.
“When we played the Marlins, you never knew what you were going to get,” said Florida infielder Greg Dobbs, who spent the past four years in Philadelphia. “They could, on any given night, just jump out and beat you. You never had a comfortable handle on them.”
The Marlins went 80-82 last season and traded their leading run producer, second baseman Dan Uggla, to Atlanta. Much of their exhibition season was marked by nagging injuries, sloppy defense and struggles by their top starting pitchers.
The safe bet is to consign the Marlins to that netherworld where they usually reside, scary on any given night but rarely a factor in the pennant race. They know that is how people see them.
“It’s just a feeling of us against the world,” left fielder Logan Morrison said. “I think that’s a good feeling to have, when you’re an underdog and nobody’s writing about you. For us to earn the respect, we have to go out and win a divisional championship and win a World Series.”
Every team dreams big in spring training, but the Marlins — World Series champions in 1997 and 2003 — are overdue for their latest unlikely postseason run. They may not have the defense and shutdown bullpen that is usually essential to October success, but their youth just might carry them to the playoffs.
“We understand that Philly is the top dog on paper because they’ve been there more lately,” said center fielder Chris Coghlan, the 2009 N.L. rookie of the year. “But that doesn’t change our opinion on how we feel about us as a team. We feel that our youth can be used in a positive way, and we’re very talented.”
Consider the essential elements in place. The Marlins have a true No. 1 starter in Josh Johnson, last season’s league leader in earned run average at 2.30. They have a centerpiece shortstop in Hanley Ramirez. They signed the All-Star catcher John Buck; traded Uggla for a starting infielder (Omar Infante) and a power left-hander(Mike Dunn) to improve a deeper bullpen; and returned starter Javier Vazquez to the comforts of the N.L.
Most important, perhaps, the Marlins have Mike Stanton, a right fielder who might become the best offensive force in the N.L. not named Albert Pujols. That is saying a lot in a league with Ryan Howard, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman. But Stanton could be that good.
“He’s going to hit 40 and drive in 150,” Morrison said. “He’s the real deal, man. He’s 21 years old. He’s just scraping the surface of what he can do. I’ve always thought he can be one of the best players to ever play the game.”
Stanton split last season between Class AA Jacksonville and the Marlins, hitting 21 home runs in the minors and 22 more in the majors. For a sliver above the minimum salary, the Marlins could have a run producer with extraordinary value.
That is typical of the Marlins, who tend to get much of a player’s prime and let someone else pay him his fortune. After bringing Stanton, Morrison and Gaby Sanchez to the majors last season, they are poised to have several strong hitters emerge at the same time.
“Last year, a lot of those guys were still wondering if they belong there,” Manager Edwin Rodriguez said. “They wanted to prove it to themselves and prove it to everybody. This year, they know they belong here, and they can concentrate on performance and doing the things that will help us win ballgames. Now you can see them being themselves, and that’s good.”
Picking the Marlins to reach the playoffs assumes a lot. The young players cannot regress; starters Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad must continue to improve behind Johnson; and Coghlan must show he can handle center field after a spring shoulder injury. Even Rodriguez concedes that the Marlins have little margin for error. He was referring to personnel, but could just as easily have been talking about himself, because the owner Jeffrey Loria expects a serious contender.
In some seasons, that would seem irrational, and maybe it still is. The Phillies have unmatched starting pitching, and the Braves have bigger names.
But here’s a guess that the Marlins will find their way in, and that opposing pitchers will experience what the veteran Randy Choate felt last season when he faced the Marlins while pitching for Tampa Bay.
“They showed that they had way more pop than you’d think they’d have,” said Choate, who signed a two-year deal with Florida. “All of a sudden, you’d find yourself battling — like: ‘Wait a second, what happened? This is supposed to be the Marlins.’ ”
If these Marlins play like that version — if they harness their potential consistently — the final baseball game at their stadium will take place in the postseason.
Few teams have done that, though it happened three times in a recent 10-year span, with the Braves in 1996, the Houston Astros in 1999 and the St. Louis Cardinals in 2005. The Astros have not won a playoff series since they shuttered old Busch Stadium in St. Louis, but they showed signs of life last season, with a winning record in the second half.
Forecast
Tyler Kepner makes his predictions for the National League season.
Order of Finish
EAST
Phillies, Marlins (wild card), Braves, Nationals, Mets
CENTRAL
Reds, Brewers, Astros, Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates
WEST
Giants, Rockies, Dodgers, Padres, Diamondbacks
N.L.C.S.
Giants over Phillies
M.V.P.
Mike Stanton, Marlins
CY YOUNG AWARD
Tim Lincecum, Giants
But what about the Florida Marlins, the mystery team of the N.L.? They are underfinanced, prodded by Major League Baseball and the union to increase spending before last season. They are unloved, ranking last in the league in attendance five years running as they build a retractable-roof ballpark for 2012.
They are also unpredictable, and that makes them dangerous.
“When we played the Marlins, you never knew what you were going to get,” said Florida infielder Greg Dobbs, who spent the past four years in Philadelphia. “They could, on any given night, just jump out and beat you. You never had a comfortable handle on them.”
The Marlins went 80-82 last season and traded their leading run producer, second baseman Dan Uggla, to Atlanta. Much of their exhibition season was marked by nagging injuries, sloppy defense and struggles by their top starting pitchers.
The safe bet is to consign the Marlins to that netherworld where they usually reside, scary on any given night but rarely a factor in the pennant race. They know that is how people see them.
“It’s just a feeling of us against the world,” left fielder Logan Morrison said. “I think that’s a good feeling to have, when you’re an underdog and nobody’s writing about you. For us to earn the respect, we have to go out and win a divisional championship and win a World Series.”
Every team dreams big in spring training, but the Marlins — World Series champions in 1997 and 2003 — are overdue for their latest unlikely postseason run. They may not have the defense and shutdown bullpen that is usually essential to October success, but their youth just might carry them to the playoffs.
“We understand that Philly is the top dog on paper because they’ve been there more lately,” said center fielder Chris Coghlan, the 2009 N.L. rookie of the year. “But that doesn’t change our opinion on how we feel about us as a team. We feel that our youth can be used in a positive way, and we’re very talented.”
Consider the essential elements in place. The Marlins have a true No. 1 starter in Josh Johnson, last season’s league leader in earned run average at 2.30. They have a centerpiece shortstop in Hanley Ramirez. They signed the All-Star catcher John Buck; traded Uggla for a starting infielder (Omar Infante) and a power left-hander(Mike Dunn) to improve a deeper bullpen; and returned starter Javier Vazquez to the comforts of the N.L.
Most important, perhaps, the Marlins have Mike Stanton, a right fielder who might become the best offensive force in the N.L. not named Albert Pujols. That is saying a lot in a league with Ryan Howard, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto and Ryan Zimmerman. But Stanton could be that good.
“He’s going to hit 40 and drive in 150,” Morrison said. “He’s the real deal, man. He’s 21 years old. He’s just scraping the surface of what he can do. I’ve always thought he can be one of the best players to ever play the game.”
Stanton split last season between Class AA Jacksonville and the Marlins, hitting 21 home runs in the minors and 22 more in the majors. For a sliver above the minimum salary, the Marlins could have a run producer with extraordinary value.
That is typical of the Marlins, who tend to get much of a player’s prime and let someone else pay him his fortune. After bringing Stanton, Morrison and Gaby Sanchez to the majors last season, they are poised to have several strong hitters emerge at the same time.
“Last year, a lot of those guys were still wondering if they belong there,” Manager Edwin Rodriguez said. “They wanted to prove it to themselves and prove it to everybody. This year, they know they belong here, and they can concentrate on performance and doing the things that will help us win ballgames. Now you can see them being themselves, and that’s good.”
Picking the Marlins to reach the playoffs assumes a lot. The young players cannot regress; starters Ricky Nolasco, Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad must continue to improve behind Johnson; and Coghlan must show he can handle center field after a spring shoulder injury. Even Rodriguez concedes that the Marlins have little margin for error. He was referring to personnel, but could just as easily have been talking about himself, because the owner Jeffrey Loria expects a serious contender.
In some seasons, that would seem irrational, and maybe it still is. The Phillies have unmatched starting pitching, and the Braves have bigger names.
But here’s a guess that the Marlins will find their way in, and that opposing pitchers will experience what the veteran Randy Choate felt last season when he faced the Marlins while pitching for Tampa Bay.
“They showed that they had way more pop than you’d think they’d have,” said Choate, who signed a two-year deal with Florida. “All of a sudden, you’d find yourself battling — like: ‘Wait a second, what happened? This is supposed to be the Marlins.’ ”
If these Marlins play like that version — if they harness their potential consistently — the final baseball game at their stadium will take place in the postseason.
Few teams have done that, though it happened three times in a recent 10-year span, with the Braves in 1996, the Houston Astros in 1999 and the St. Louis Cardinals in 2005. The Astros have not won a playoff series since they shuttered old Busch Stadium in St. Louis, but they showed signs of life last season, with a winning record in the second half.
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