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I just finished my base running projections for 2011, which is basically just an estimate of true talent base running over the last 4 years. I don’t think I do any age adjustments (even though they are obviously important).
As you can see, the value of many sluggers is significantly reduced due to their slow/poor base running, and many otherwise marginal players (and good ones) have lots of base running value.
Also, there are some things that I don’t include in valuing base running speed and talent, like advancing on WP and PB, etc. So, you can probably add 20% or so to these numbers. The SD in base running skill that I get is 2.1 runs, which means that most players are plus or minus 6 runs. It also means that the very best or worst are worth a little over half a win or so, which is not insignificant. In fact, you could add or dock from a few players’ salaries 2 or 3 million (in FA dollars) a year just for good or bad base running!
Here are the top and bottom 5 base runners in true talent over the last 4 years, in runs per 150 games, which is also close to what we would expect in 2011.
Best
Figgins 6.8 (wow!)
Bonifacio 4.4
Kinsler 4.2
Josh Hamilton 3.5 (is this guy good or what?)
Rasmus 3.4
Worst
(Kotchmann -6.4 not sure if he is even playing anymore)
Thome -5.9 (DH’s have to run the bases too!)
B. Molina -5.5 (The 3 Molina brothers are a combined -12.1!)
Posada -5.5
Lowell -5.3
Fielder -5.1
As you can see, the value of many sluggers is significantly reduced due to their slow/poor base running, and many otherwise marginal players (and good ones) have lots of base running value.
Also, there are some things that I don’t include in valuing base running speed and talent, like advancing on WP and PB, etc. So, you can probably add 20% or so to these numbers. The SD in base running skill that I get is 2.1 runs, which means that most players are plus or minus 6 runs. It also means that the very best or worst are worth a little over half a win or so, which is not insignificant. In fact, you could add or dock from a few players’ salaries 2 or 3 million (in FA dollars) a year just for good or bad base running!
Here are the top and bottom 5 base runners in true talent over the last 4 years, in runs per 150 games, which is also close to what we would expect in 2011.
Best
Figgins 6.8 (wow!)
Bonifacio 4.4
Kinsler 4.2
Josh Hamilton 3.5 (is this guy good or what?)
Rasmus 3.4
Worst
(Kotchmann -6.4 not sure if he is even playing anymore)
Thome -5.9 (DH’s have to run the bases too!)
B. Molina -5.5 (The 3 Molina brothers are a combined -12.1!)
Posada -5.5
Lowell -5.3
Fielder -5.1
Not sure if this is factored into most WAR metrics... anybody know for sure?
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