Marlins and Nolasco Reach Agreement on 3 Year Contract

[wanks1212]

This is great news.

[rmc523]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/1...extension.html

Looks to be done pending a physical.

[Bobbob1313]

Just off the top of my head, the Marlins have taken on 13 years and about ~$105 million in salary on long term or free agent deals in the last year. Pretty crazy to see as a fan.

[lou]

I don't mind it, but it's probably a little high but that's really splitting hairs. If Nolasco does great in 2011, he probably gets to $10 in arbitration, and free agency he'd probably get a Jorge De La Rosa, or a little better deal, at $12. So a best case financial salary for Nolasco, as his arbitration figure this year is really locked around $6, would be around $28 million. I guess that is a little bit of savings, but that's still on the higher end.

I'd have though this would have gotten done for around $24, as it's no sure thing Nolasco performs up to his potential, but it's not like $26.5 is killing the bank like that extra $13 million and year would have for Uggla.

This is just a solid contract. Marlins didn't really win (i.e., save) here and paid full price for a "good Nolasco," but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Don't have to win/save on all the deals. Sometimes just locking them up gets you farther.

And a side note, I'd really like to see a 2 year Anibal deal, option 3rd, happen next. Anibal is not breaking the bank and is a huge injury risk. It's to his benefit to get a 2nd year while he can coming off a good year. I think the Marlins should guarantee him his 2012 arbitration year at a reasonable performance price, in exchange for a very unreasonable (cheap) option for his first free agency year. It's a gamble, but if he's healthy, we have a huge opportunity to get a drastically discounted free agency year. We need to take "moderate" gambles like this here and there, and this is a good opportunity.

[emkayseven]

The Florida Marlins, widely criticized for failing to spend money, have locked up their second rotation piece to a multi-year contract, agreeing with right-hander Ricky Nolasco on a 3-year/$26.5 million deal. It was just under a year ago that the Marlins committed to Josh Johnson for four years, and now they will have both starters through at least 2013.

The Marlins commitment to Nolasco could signify that the team is expecting the sort of breakout that Nolasco’s peripherals have indicated is coming for years. Few pitchers have been as perplexing as Nolasco; over the last two seasons, Nolasco’s ERA has lagged well behind his supporting statistics. In other words, he has the ERA of a No. 4 starter and the peripherals of a No. 1.

In fact, Nolasco was the only starting pitcher between 2009 and 2010 (combined) to post a strikeout rate per nine innings of 8.5 or greater and an ERA of 4.75 or greater (min. 300 IP).

If Nolasco is wildly underperforming his peripherals, what could be the cause of it besides potential 'bad luck'? For starters, the Marlins defense has been one of the worst across-the-board over the last two seasons, ranking 15th in the National League in team-wide Defensive Runs Saved (-51) and 16th in Plus/minus (-79), both courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions. The Marlins received below-average defense, according to Defensive Runs Saved, at all four non-catcher infield positions, as well as in center field.

Though some of those fielders will be back in 2011 -- Dan Uggla is gone and the third base situation is up in the air -- Nolasco's combination of plentiful strikeouts and minimal walks seems destined to put him in line for a breakout season at some point in his career. Over the last two seasons, Nolasco ranks fourth among starting pitchers in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and three of the other four in the top five have won a Cy Young award at some point in their careers.

Put it all together, and the Marlins have assembled a front three portion of their starting rotation -- Johnson, Nolasco and Javier Vazquez -- that is unmatched in its ability to register strikeouts. In fact, among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched over the past two seasons, the Marlins are the only team in baseball scheduled to go into 2011 with three starters who have averaged 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings or better over that span. Only one other team even has two such starters -- the Detroit Tigers with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

So while the Marlins might be banking on a breakout from Nolasco to justify the contract, they are putting their money on a pitcher whose underlying statistics justify the faith.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...ut-ink-nolasco

[Miamarlin21]

Ricky for 2011 Cy Young bitches.