Marlins, Javier Vazquez Agree To One Year Deal

[wanks1212]

If his velocity is still down, he's not going to be very good. Dead arm can just be a one season thing, or it can be some kind of other injury that will eventually require surgery and whatnot. You probably know that though.

He may rebound and get over the dead arm, he may not, but it's a risk worth taking at this length and on these terms.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

After a second disappointing stint with the New York Yankees, Javier Vazquez reportedly is returning to the National League, agreeing to a one-year contract with the Florida Marlins.

The Marlins are hoping that a return trip to the National League will solve Vazquez's problems from 2010. After a remarkable run with the Atlanta Braves in 2009 (2.87 ERA in 219⅓ innings, led the NL with 238 strikeouts), Vazquez’s ERA nearly doubled in 2010 to 5.32 while throwing 62 fewer innings.

There was a clear reason for the diminished results, too – diminished stuff. Vazquez’s fastball velocity dropped more than 2 mph, from 91.1 in 2009 to 88.7 in 2010. Consequently, his contact percentage went up, from 73.3 percent in 2009 to 81.1 percent in 2010. And, naturally, his strikeouts went down as well, from a robust 9.8 to just 6.9. His fastball velocity, contact percentage and home runs per nine innings were all the worst of his career.

One plus over Vazquez’s 13-year career is the fact that he’s been extremely durable. In fact, since Vazquez came into the league in 1998, he has thrown 2,647⅓ innings. The only pitcher who has logged more innings since 1998 is Livan Hernandez (2,847).

If Vazquez can live up to his reputation as an innings-eater, it will come in very handy for the Marlins. Florida would benefit from a pitcher who simply soaks up innings, as the Marlins ranked near the bottom in innings pitched by starters (see chart).

Vazquez has also won at least 10 games in 11 straight seasons, that’s the longest current streak for any pitcher.

Can Vazquez return to 2009 form in Florida?

[Metes]

Wanna bet that win record is in jeopardy?

Also, looking at his year-over-year WAR and the meteoric dropoff in 2010, I think he'd be pretty hard-pressed to finish under 2 this season.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Here's a relevant article that I can't post in here

[wanks1212]

As RJ noted yesterday, the Marlins gave Javier Vazquez $7 million for the 2011 season, hoping for another rebound season after a switch back to the National League. Vazquez’s career peripherals are quite good, and he was one of the game’s best pitchers in 2009 with the Braves, so there are reasons to think that it is a reclamation project worth taking on. There’s also this:



Vazquez has been losing his top end fastball for several years, but last year his velocity fell off a cliff, averaging just 88.7 MPH, down from 91.1 in 2009. While it is impossible to lay his struggles entirely on his missing fastball, it seems likely that his inability to get his high heat past hitters was directly responsible for a large part of his problems in 2010. As a guy who pitches up in the zone and gets a lot of flyballs, the ability to miss bats is crucial, and Vazquez simply couldn’t get hitters to swing through his primary pitch last year.

Any hope for Vazquez to return to prior form has to begin with the idea that his velocity will return to previous levels, or at least bounce back enough to allow him to succeed with the same gameplan he has used throughout his career. And, unfortunately for Vazquez and the Marlins, history doesn’t suggest that is likely.

For reference, here’s a list of starting pitchers who experienced velocity drops of 1+MPH from 2008 to 2009, and their corresponding 2010 “bounce back” velocities.

Ervin Santana: 2008 – 94.4 MPH; 2009 – 92.2 MPH; 2010 – 92.5 MPH
Tim Lincecum: 2008 – 94.1 MPH; 2009 – 92.4 MPH; 2010 – 91.3 MPH
Chris Young: 2008 – 87.2 MPH; 2009 – 85.8 MPH; 2010 – 84.7 MPH
Ross Ohlendorf: 2008 – 92.5 MPH; 2009 – 91.2 MPH; 2010 – 91.3 MPH
Aaron Cook: 2008 – 91.0 MPH; 2009 – 89.7 MPH; 2010 – 89.5 MPH
Dana Eveland: 2008 – 90.1 MPH; 2009 – 88.8 MPH; 2010 – 88.1 MPH
Oliver Perez: 2008 – 91.2 MPH; 2009 – 90.0 MPH; 2010 – 88.1 MPH
Brett Myers: 2008 – 90.1 MPH; 2009 – 89.1 MPH; 2010 – 89.3 MPH
Kevin Slowey: 2008 – 89.9 MPH; 2009 – 88.9 MPH; 2010 – 89.6 MPH
Jered Weaver: 2008 – 89.9 MPH; 2009 – 88.9 MPH; 2010 – 89.9 MPH

The list is not a pretty picture for Vazquez optimists. The three guys who experienced similarly sized velocity drops didn’t get any of the prior oomph on their fastballs back, and in the case of Lincecum and Young, velocity continued to erode. The only two guys who got back near their previous levels are Slowey and Weaver, who had the smallest loss of velocity to begin with.

It doesn’t get much better if you go back to the pitchers whose fastballs went missing in 2008, either. Scott Olsen, Rich Harden, Daniel Cabrera, Chris Young (again), and Randy Johnson all suffered significant drops in their average fastball and have never gotten back to what they used to be. There are a few positive examples in that sample, as both Justin Verlander and Yovani Gallardo now throw harder than they used to after losing something in 2008, but they’re both significantly younger than Vazquez with workloads a fraction of what he has been put under in his career.

Vazquez has thrown over 42,000 pitches in his big league career, throwing 200 or more innings every year from 2000 to 2009 with the exception of 2004, when he threw 198 innings. He might only be 34 years old, but he has the mileage of a pitcher nearing 40. Given his career workload, I wouldn’t bet on Vazquez’s fastball ever coming back. And if it doesn’t, well, the Marlins just risked $7 million in the hopes that he can teach himself how to pitch without his main weapon. That’s a pretty substantial risk for a team that isn’t exactly rolling in money.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...t-coming-back/

[Metes]

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

One thing Javier Vazquez probably won’t be doing as a Florida Marlin in 2011 is blowing his fastball by too many hitters. The Marlins agreeing with Vazquez to a one-year, $7 million contract seemed to be well received throughout the game. Yet Marlins fans shouldn’t expect to see Vazquez circa 2003 or even 2009 for that matter.

As Fangraphs illustrates, Vazquez’s fastball velocity plunged in 2010 to the point some speculated he was pitching hurt. The pitch went from 91.1 mph on average in 2009 to 88.7 mph last season, which would help explain the ERA jump from 2.87 in 219 1/3 innings with the Braves to 5.32 in 157 1/3 with the Yankees. Just 38 percent of Vazquez’s 26 starts for the Yankees were quality starts (six innings, three runs or fewer). In 2009, 69 percent of 32 starts for the Braves qualified as quality.

Had he pitched the minimum 162 innings to qualify, Vazquez’s average fastball velocity would have ranked sixth worst among American League pitchers last season according to Baseball Info Solutions. The AL pitchers who eclipsed the 162-inning mark with more lukewarm heaters than Vazquez: Mark Buehrle (86.0), Dallas Braden (86.7), former Marlin Jason Vargas (86.8), Shaun Marcum (87.1) and Doug Fister (88.4).

A career-high 45 percent of the hits Vazquez gave up in 2010 went for extra bases, including 32 homers. Not since 2005 had opponents put 30 Vazquez pitches in the seats. Dolphins Stadium should help, but Vazquez as a fly ball pitcher can’t live around the letters with a below average fastball. Last season, a career-worst 12.1 percent of the fly balls he allowed left the park. From 1999-2009, that figure topped 10 percent once (2005) and was a career-low 6.5 percent in 2009.

As Fangraphs points out, Vazquez doesn’t turn 35 until mid-season, but his arm has the mileage of a much older pitcher. Plenty of power guys reinvent themselves later in their careers. The Marlins may have acquired Vazquez smack dab in the middle of that transition.

Florida Marlins: Diminished fastball a concern with Javier Vazquez?

[Mainge]

As long he's better than Volstad, which shouldn't be hard, it's a good signing.

[Jay]

I didn't realize Vargas had such a good season. I always liked him.

Vazquez may suck but signing him is the right move.

[MiamiHomer]

Samson says we have yet to sign Javier Vazquez and laughed at LeBatard when he mentioned the no-trade clause.

[Ramp]

I hate Samson with a passion of 1,000 suns

[emkayseven]

uhhhhhh what?

[HUGG]

Yeah, I didn't know suns had passion either

[Ramp]

Stare a sun in the eye, you'll see the passion.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Apparently Vazquez passed his physical because the deal has officially been announced.