I'm Being Way too Presumptuous ('11)

[nny]

Pitching: 72 runs against
Defense: 46 runs saved
Total Runs Against: 676 (3.86 ERA)
Offense: 849 runs scored (.764 OPS)

.612 win%, 99 wins




I think biggest wild cards are #4/#5 SP spots. Could just as easily see West and Miller not working and us being rather screwed there unless we get good stuff for Uggla and Cody. Also think it really means we need to keep Ricky. Just take the draft picks after the season.

And although no real aces we have such an abundance of BP arms that should be able to make something around that, those names are really interchangeable, especially with Lindy and Nunez being deep in arbitration.

It's really assuming no injuries. 150 games played for the position players (except the platoon of C and LF which is 162). 30 starts for SP, with Trahern/#6 starter making the other 12.

I think we give up more runs that though because of base running against us. If we still have Baker back there, even with hayes getting 35% of the PT, we still have SPs who don't hold runners and such. So I imagine the "defense" boost wouldn't be that high. Let's being real pessimistic and say 20 runs against us? Still .598 win%, 97 games won.

I'd definitely say in '11 if things go the way they should go we're a 95-100 win team.

[m26555]

That bullpen looks pretty ugly.

[Nick]

You can't predict what the bullpen will look like next year let alone 2 years from now. So that's kinda useless.

[nny]

You can't predict what the bullpen will look like next year let alone 2 years from now. So that's kinda useless.

and survery says:

those names are really interchangeable

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That bullpen looks pretty ugly.

No aces but it's deep. more or less league average (i'd say less since no aces but we're not talking horrible)

[Sashimi]

It just wouldn't be a NNY post without a grammatical or spelling error in the title.

/smartass

[nny]

I gotta stick out somehow

[Nick]

and survery says:

I was responding to the post above mine.

[Swifty]

I can't help but recall how we were stockpiling "the coin of the realm" and that, come 2009, no team would want to play us and our rotation would be so good we'd have to have guys who would be 3's on other teams pitch in AAA for us, and yet...here we are.

So excuse me if I see absolutely no point in discussing 2011, especially with this front office group and their obsession with making poor choices be it in personnel, lineup/roster construction or when to buy a player's arbitration schedule out.

Therfore, let me constructively add that I see no way the 2011 Marlins have a healthy and productive JJ, Hanley, Nolasco, Miller and Lindstrom.

[nny]

Big difference between pitching and hitting prospects

[Metes]

I also find it optimistic that Logan and Stanton will have mid-800 OPS's

[Swifty]

Point taken, but Hermida, Maybin and as a foil, Uggla suggest that quality is rarely a guarantee among prospects, especially those hoarded out of high-school.

[nny]

I also find it optimistic that Logan and Stanton will have mid-800 OPS's

it's more or less what they're expected to do. I don't find those numbers optimistic at all.

Is it optimistic to assume that all the above up there perform at their expected value? Yes. But individually I don't see any real optimism at all.

[Metes]

Well Maybin was expected to put up an 850 OPS, but I haven't seen that yet.

I'm not disagreeing with your methodology here, the projections are what they are. I just think it's folly to think that those numbers are in the bank.

[nny]

Point taken, but Hermida, Maybin and as a foil, Uggla suggest that quality is rarely a guarantee among prospects, especially those hoarded out of high-school.

I agree but I by no means say it's a gurantee and myself say that it's being very presumption (fuck whoever changed it I AM WHO I AM). But bored want wanted to see just how good we could be if people perform how they're suppose to perform.

but to also respond to your last paragraph

"
Therfore, let me constructively add that I see no way the 2011 Marlins have a healthy and productive JJ, Hanley, Nolasco, Miller and Lindstrom."

I agree with Lindstrom and, based off how the FO has acted in the pass, expect a "Veteran" reliever mor or less there. Miller I agree with but I think more or less should be fixed by trading Uggla/Cantu/Cody/ect. I definitely think 4/5 is the biggest weakness.

Nolasco I also agree with because of his price, injury concerns, ect. And also the biggest cause of concern. Cuz we have no real #2 anywhere. And don't know if we'll get one in trade.

JJ and Hanley, I believe you're not singling them out per se because of the and, but outside of us trading JJ for monetary reasons I don't see anything happening between the two.
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Well Maybin was expected to put up an 850 OPS, but I haven't seen that yet.

By who? Idiots? Hermida you could say that for but anyone who expected Maybin to put a 850 OPS shouldn't talk again.

And I never said they were in the bank (see: "I'M BEING WAY TOO PRESUMPTION")

[Swifty]

Well, where I was going with that thought (and I think you and I are on the same page) is that we're evidently going to go year to year with all the guys and assuming no one's arm falls off, come 2011 JJ and Nolasco should conservatively combine for $15 million in arby awards as 6th year players, Lindstrom should get about $1.75-$2.33 if he stays as our closer and Miller because of that 85% salary guarantee and the Detroit deal is probably going to earn in the neighborhood of $3.5 mil and that's on the low end.

In any event, I hope we start spending money but I just can't allow myself to buy into the great "future Marlin promise" I've just been burned too much.