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A big deal is made out of the bullpen. And leading the majors in blown saves is a good reason for that. But is our bullpen actually bad?
Their 4.10 ERA is exactly the average ERA for NL bullpens - Same goes for their 1.38 WHIP, while their .710 OPS against is just barely better then the NL average of .719. When you look at the results as a whole of hitters v.s. our relievers, you're looking at an average pen.
And nothing cries good luck or bad luck. Their .302 BABIP, 4.04 FIP, 71.6% LOB% are all basically dead average.
And out of the six pitchers who've thrown at least 20 innings (Those six make up for over 71% of our BP innings), Brian Sanches has gotten rather lucky (2.83 ERA but 4.32 FIP/.243 BABIP) but that's canceled out by Leo Nunez (3.38 ERA but 2.56 FIP/.351 BABIP), while everyone else is where they're "suppose" to be.
So what's the problem?
The problem is the team gives up hits at opportunistic times. Maybe this means that our bullpen is "unclutch", if you believe in such a thing. That they fold under pressure when the game is on the line.
Or it means that pitchers are going to give up hits, they're going to give up runs, and when our relief pitchers have given those up, it's been at the worse possible time and that's not a true representation of their skill.
This is not to say our bullpen is not at fault; They are one of the biggest reasons we are not going to make the playoffs this season. Their inconsistency at the end of games has been horrible. I think this is best shown by a couple fangraphs made stats, "Shutdown" and "Meltdown":
"A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.
A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game."
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...wns-meltdowns/
And WPA:
"WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA."
Obviously, win expectancy is theoretical, but really all we can work with is theoretical things for this.
The Marlins bullpen are 8th in the majors in Shutdowns, which is obviously really damn good.
The problem? They are third in Meltdowns (Behinds Brewers and Diamondbacks).
Either they completely close out the game, or they completely fuck it up. There is no in between with them this season.
Again I bring this up not to defend the bullpen's results from this season, there is no defending them. But the question is next year. Out of those six who have pitched at least 20 innings, three are definitely going to be back next year because they will cost the minimum (Sanches, Badenhop, and Wood [Though Wood might have pitched himself to DFA land]), two will probably be back in arbitration (Nunez and Hensley), and I have no idea what they're gonna do with Veras in arbi.
Obviously we are not going to have a good bullpen if we just throw out the same bullpen next year. I don't think we'll have a bad bullpen either though - going into the year, we all thought our bullpen was going to be average. Going by ERA, WHIP, FIP, OPS against, whatever you want, they have been. But their runs against have come when it mattered most. Certainly, maybe it is a psychological thing, maybe they can't perform under pressure. Or you go with the odds which says it's just an incredibly volatile game and when they've given up their hits, it's been at the wrong times.
Their 4.10 ERA is exactly the average ERA for NL bullpens - Same goes for their 1.38 WHIP, while their .710 OPS against is just barely better then the NL average of .719. When you look at the results as a whole of hitters v.s. our relievers, you're looking at an average pen.
And nothing cries good luck or bad luck. Their .302 BABIP, 4.04 FIP, 71.6% LOB% are all basically dead average.
And out of the six pitchers who've thrown at least 20 innings (Those six make up for over 71% of our BP innings), Brian Sanches has gotten rather lucky (2.83 ERA but 4.32 FIP/.243 BABIP) but that's canceled out by Leo Nunez (3.38 ERA but 2.56 FIP/.351 BABIP), while everyone else is where they're "suppose" to be.
So what's the problem?
The problem is the team gives up hits at opportunistic times. Maybe this means that our bullpen is "unclutch", if you believe in such a thing. That they fold under pressure when the game is on the line.
Or it means that pitchers are going to give up hits, they're going to give up runs, and when our relief pitchers have given those up, it's been at the worse possible time and that's not a true representation of their skill.
This is not to say our bullpen is not at fault; They are one of the biggest reasons we are not going to make the playoffs this season. Their inconsistency at the end of games has been horrible. I think this is best shown by a couple fangraphs made stats, "Shutdown" and "Meltdown":
"A Shutdown is when a reliever accumulates greater than or equal to 0.06 WPA in any individual game.
A Meltdown is when a reliever’s WPA is less than or equal to -0.06 in any individual game."
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...wns-meltdowns/
And WPA:
"WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA."
Obviously, win expectancy is theoretical, but really all we can work with is theoretical things for this.
The Marlins bullpen are 8th in the majors in Shutdowns, which is obviously really damn good.
The problem? They are third in Meltdowns (Behinds Brewers and Diamondbacks).
Either they completely close out the game, or they completely fuck it up. There is no in between with them this season.
Again I bring this up not to defend the bullpen's results from this season, there is no defending them. But the question is next year. Out of those six who have pitched at least 20 innings, three are definitely going to be back next year because they will cost the minimum (Sanches, Badenhop, and Wood [Though Wood might have pitched himself to DFA land]), two will probably be back in arbitration (Nunez and Hensley), and I have no idea what they're gonna do with Veras in arbi.
Obviously we are not going to have a good bullpen if we just throw out the same bullpen next year. I don't think we'll have a bad bullpen either though - going into the year, we all thought our bullpen was going to be average. Going by ERA, WHIP, FIP, OPS against, whatever you want, they have been. But their runs against have come when it mattered most. Certainly, maybe it is a psychological thing, maybe they can't perform under pressure. Or you go with the odds which says it's just an incredibly volatile game and when they've given up their hits, it's been at the wrong times.
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