Sanabia Dazzles in Marlins 4-2 Win Over Pirates

[HUGG]

46 runners in 31 innings is not good, he's getting lucky.

[nny]

I didn't watch much of the game but he gave up some long outs.

Still, he good has control, and he has enough stuff to be able to put it in the zone without getting totally pounded. I would say I have equal faith in him and Volstad to put up mid-4 ERAs, but I have more faith in Sanabia to put up one around 4.

Asking for something like 6 K/9, 3 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9 = 4.46 FIP, and there's room to grow there.

[Valid]

46 runners in 31 innings is not good, he's getting lucky.

His BABIP is .366 and he has a 3.61 FIP. Wouldn't that signify that he has actually been a bit unlucky?

[nny]

His BABIP is .366 and he has a 3.61 FIP. Wouldn't that signify that he has actually been a bit unlucky?

Normally it would, but he has a 27.7% LD rate against him. Therefore, he will have a high BABIP like that.

If you use fangraphs, there's a stat called tERA on there which looks at batted ball data and creates an ERA off that. his tERA is 4.81, which is about what you'd expect with that WHIP (I'm not to big of a fan of tERA though, and it has been shown to be less predictive then FIP)

However, a 27.7 LD rate against likely isn't sustainable. FIP is more of a predictive stat rather than a "This is how well he actually did" stat. If he continues to strike out, walk, and allow hrs at similar rates he is now, he'll be extremely good. But he's given up some hard hit balls so far, and while his 27.7% LD rate against should go down, that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be a .300 BABIP guy; i.e. Ricky has a career 20% LD rate against/.313 BABIP, Andrew Miller has a career 22% LD rate against/.333 BABIP, and while Lindstrom's career BABIP is a respectable 19%, his career BABIP is .340 and he's never had a year under .320. Because those three give up hard hit balls, their career ERAs are worse than their FIPs.