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It's hard to say that a highly-anticipated player who had a nickname before reaching the majors and was known for hitting 500-foot home runs came out of nowhere. But in the Rookie of the Year race, Mike Stanton seems to have done just that.
On Friday morning, MLB.com noted that Stanton and Braves outfielder Jason Heyward were just the fourth pair of 20-year-olds to hit at least 12 home runs in a single season. Then Friday night came, and Stanton belted two more home runs against the Reds.
Our intelligent users have been lighting up our message board with stats about Stanton's incredible campaign thus far. User nny points out that Stanton's ISO is putting him in elite company. ISO, or isolated power, is a measure of a player's ability to get extra base hits. The highest ISO for a 20 year old with at least 150 plate appearances is Mel Ott's, at .306. This is followed by fellow Hall of Famers Ted Williams (.281), and Frank Robinson (.267), future Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez (.273), and two star players who had their career cut short by injuries (Bob Horner (.272) and Tony Conigliaro (.244)). Mike Stanton's ISO currently sits at .301, just .005 behind Mel Ott. In fact, right now, Mike Stanton has the fourth highest ISO in all of baseball, behind Toronto's Jose Bautista (.343), Minnesota's Jim Thome (.310), and Washington's Adam Dunn (.302). Stanton also has the highest home run to fly ball ratio in baseball.
Strikeouts were supposed to be the biggest flaw in Stanton's game, and they have shown up in full force in the majors. He's currently on pace to strike out 128 times in just 370 at bats. But user PitchingWinsGames points out that even that is a facet of Stanton's game that is improving. In July, Stanton struck out in a whopping 34.9% of his at bats. In August, that number is down to 19.4%.
Back to the question posed at the beginning: could Mike Stanton win the Rookie of the Year award? Hitters who appear to be in the race include the Mets' Ike Davis, the Giant's Buster Posey, the Braves' Jason Heyward, and Stanton's teammate Gaby Sanchez. Here are their slashlines, followed by Stanton's:
.251/.327/.433 (.760) - Davis
.329/.381/.498 (.879) - Posey
.259/.373/.445 (.818) - Heyward
.291/.355/.461 (.816) - Sanchez
.270/.345/.571 (.917) - Stanton
Not surprising to see that Stanton leads in slugging and OPS by huge margins. Looking at those hitters, it would appear that Ike Davis doesn't stand a chance. Davis's calling card is supposed to be his power, but his slugging percentage is the lowest of all five hitters, and Stanton has just one fewer home run in nearly 160 fewer at bats.
Gaby Sanchez looked to be a strong candidate for several months, but at this point he's no longer the best rookie on his team. His solid season keeps him on the list though, because assuming he stays healthy through September, he'll be the only one of the rookie to play and produce through a full season. He's a contender, but he lacks that "oomph" that one would expect in a Rookie of the Year.
Heyward was the pre-season favorite to win the award when he was awarded a starting job with the Braves in Spring Training. Then he missed nearly a month's worth of time due to injury. His June was atrocious (.181/.287/.245) and his August is headed that way as well (.147/.275/.353). At his current pace this month, his season OPS is in danger of dipping below .800. Unless he goes on a tear before the season is over, Heyward won't deserve this award. If he wins, it will be on name recognition alone.
Then there's Buster Posey, recalled by the Giants nine days before Stanton made his way to the big leagues. Posey has been a tremendous force for a team in playoff contention and that is certainly going to work in his favor. But after a red hot July (.417/.466/.699 (!)), Posey is trending downward fast, sporting a .205/.326/.282 line in August. July is still making him look pretty, but since he doesn't have a tremendous amount of at bats, he can't "hide" a bad month very well.
Which brings us to Stanton. Of the five hitters, he's the only one trending upward. He had a rough go of it in June, to the tune of a .635 OPS, as he adjusted to big league pitching. His average in July was low, but the power showed up with 7 homers and a slashline of .233/.313/.593, good for a .906 OPS. In August, he's now hitting .406/.513/.781 (!!!), good for a 1.294 OPS. Seventeen of his twenty hits in July were for extra bases, and six of his thirteen August hits have been as well.
But pitchers can win the Rookie of the Year award too! There are really only two standout pitchers this season: Washingon's Stephen Strasburg and St. Louis's Jaime Garcia.
Strasburg is one of the most-hyped players in baseball history. He might be considered the favorite right now based on name recognition alone. But he has not been the best rookie. In fact, he hasn't even been the best rookie pitcher. Right now, Strasburg is 5-3 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He's got 79 strikeouts against 17 walks. They're all solid numbers. But he simply won't achieve the level of stats due to his playing time. He missed several weeks due to an injury, and it's well-known that the Nationals are going to shut him down before the end of the season in order to prevent further injury and preserve their investment. Before the injury, it was said that his cap for the season would be at 160 innings (no idea on whether or not that changed with the shoulder injury). He had 55.1 innings in the minors, and he's now up to 58.2 innings in the majors, for 114 innings total. With just 46 innings left, he's only got about 7 starts remaining in his season.
Then there's Jaime Garcia. Somehow, he's flown relatively under the radar this year. He's 10-5 with a sparkling 2.71 ERA and 99 strikeouts. Unfortunately for him, he's also got 51 walks to go along with those numbers, giving him a 1.31 WHIP. The low strikeout totals (he's been pitching all year) and high walks and WHIP makes him less attractive. He also appears to be trending downward - he has 8 earned runs in 10.1 innings in August, for a 6.91 ERA.
We as Marlins fans have seen what a hot finish and/or cold finish can do in the Rookie of the Year race. In 2006, Dan Uggla was a heavy favorite to win throughout the year. He was an All-Star and was talked about heavily in the media, due to his being a Rule 5 Draft pick months earlier. Then he hit .221/.269/.361, while his teammate Hanley Ramirez hit .352/.389/.623 in September, to follow up a .935 OPS in August. Ramirez won. Right now, Stanton is the only one of these rookies on the way up, while everyone else appears to be dropping. There's still a month and a half of season left, and a lot can certainly happen. But if Stanton can finish the season the way he's been hitting lately, he should have the stats to win the award.
On Friday morning, MLB.com noted that Stanton and Braves outfielder Jason Heyward were just the fourth pair of 20-year-olds to hit at least 12 home runs in a single season. Then Friday night came, and Stanton belted two more home runs against the Reds.
Our intelligent users have been lighting up our message board with stats about Stanton's incredible campaign thus far. User nny points out that Stanton's ISO is putting him in elite company. ISO, or isolated power, is a measure of a player's ability to get extra base hits. The highest ISO for a 20 year old with at least 150 plate appearances is Mel Ott's, at .306. This is followed by fellow Hall of Famers Ted Williams (.281), and Frank Robinson (.267), future Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez (.273), and two star players who had their career cut short by injuries (Bob Horner (.272) and Tony Conigliaro (.244)). Mike Stanton's ISO currently sits at .301, just .005 behind Mel Ott. In fact, right now, Mike Stanton has the fourth highest ISO in all of baseball, behind Toronto's Jose Bautista (.343), Minnesota's Jim Thome (.310), and Washington's Adam Dunn (.302). Stanton also has the highest home run to fly ball ratio in baseball.
Strikeouts were supposed to be the biggest flaw in Stanton's game, and they have shown up in full force in the majors. He's currently on pace to strike out 128 times in just 370 at bats. But user PitchingWinsGames points out that even that is a facet of Stanton's game that is improving. In July, Stanton struck out in a whopping 34.9% of his at bats. In August, that number is down to 19.4%.
Back to the question posed at the beginning: could Mike Stanton win the Rookie of the Year award? Hitters who appear to be in the race include the Mets' Ike Davis, the Giant's Buster Posey, the Braves' Jason Heyward, and Stanton's teammate Gaby Sanchez. Here are their slashlines, followed by Stanton's:
.251/.327/.433 (.760) - Davis
.329/.381/.498 (.879) - Posey
.259/.373/.445 (.818) - Heyward
.291/.355/.461 (.816) - Sanchez
.270/.345/.571 (.917) - Stanton
Not surprising to see that Stanton leads in slugging and OPS by huge margins. Looking at those hitters, it would appear that Ike Davis doesn't stand a chance. Davis's calling card is supposed to be his power, but his slugging percentage is the lowest of all five hitters, and Stanton has just one fewer home run in nearly 160 fewer at bats.
Gaby Sanchez looked to be a strong candidate for several months, but at this point he's no longer the best rookie on his team. His solid season keeps him on the list though, because assuming he stays healthy through September, he'll be the only one of the rookie to play and produce through a full season. He's a contender, but he lacks that "oomph" that one would expect in a Rookie of the Year.
Heyward was the pre-season favorite to win the award when he was awarded a starting job with the Braves in Spring Training. Then he missed nearly a month's worth of time due to injury. His June was atrocious (.181/.287/.245) and his August is headed that way as well (.147/.275/.353). At his current pace this month, his season OPS is in danger of dipping below .800. Unless he goes on a tear before the season is over, Heyward won't deserve this award. If he wins, it will be on name recognition alone.
Then there's Buster Posey, recalled by the Giants nine days before Stanton made his way to the big leagues. Posey has been a tremendous force for a team in playoff contention and that is certainly going to work in his favor. But after a red hot July (.417/.466/.699 (!)), Posey is trending downward fast, sporting a .205/.326/.282 line in August. July is still making him look pretty, but since he doesn't have a tremendous amount of at bats, he can't "hide" a bad month very well.
Which brings us to Stanton. Of the five hitters, he's the only one trending upward. He had a rough go of it in June, to the tune of a .635 OPS, as he adjusted to big league pitching. His average in July was low, but the power showed up with 7 homers and a slashline of .233/.313/.593, good for a .906 OPS. In August, he's now hitting .406/.513/.781 (!!!), good for a 1.294 OPS. Seventeen of his twenty hits in July were for extra bases, and six of his thirteen August hits have been as well.
But pitchers can win the Rookie of the Year award too! There are really only two standout pitchers this season: Washingon's Stephen Strasburg and St. Louis's Jaime Garcia.
Strasburg is one of the most-hyped players in baseball history. He might be considered the favorite right now based on name recognition alone. But he has not been the best rookie. In fact, he hasn't even been the best rookie pitcher. Right now, Strasburg is 5-3 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He's got 79 strikeouts against 17 walks. They're all solid numbers. But he simply won't achieve the level of stats due to his playing time. He missed several weeks due to an injury, and it's well-known that the Nationals are going to shut him down before the end of the season in order to prevent further injury and preserve their investment. Before the injury, it was said that his cap for the season would be at 160 innings (no idea on whether or not that changed with the shoulder injury). He had 55.1 innings in the minors, and he's now up to 58.2 innings in the majors, for 114 innings total. With just 46 innings left, he's only got about 7 starts remaining in his season.
Then there's Jaime Garcia. Somehow, he's flown relatively under the radar this year. He's 10-5 with a sparkling 2.71 ERA and 99 strikeouts. Unfortunately for him, he's also got 51 walks to go along with those numbers, giving him a 1.31 WHIP. The low strikeout totals (he's been pitching all year) and high walks and WHIP makes him less attractive. He also appears to be trending downward - he has 8 earned runs in 10.1 innings in August, for a 6.91 ERA.
We as Marlins fans have seen what a hot finish and/or cold finish can do in the Rookie of the Year race. In 2006, Dan Uggla was a heavy favorite to win throughout the year. He was an All-Star and was talked about heavily in the media, due to his being a Rule 5 Draft pick months earlier. Then he hit .221/.269/.361, while his teammate Hanley Ramirez hit .352/.389/.623 in September, to follow up a .935 OPS in August. Ramirez won. Right now, Stanton is the only one of these rookies on the way up, while everyone else appears to be dropping. There's still a month and a half of season left, and a lot can certainly happen. But if Stanton can finish the season the way he's been hitting lately, he should have the stats to win the award.
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