Marlins In or Out of the Race?

[Party]

Projecting wins using today's win percentages:

For some perspective, through 95 games the 2003 squad was 49-46 and 2.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL Wild Card race. That team won 42 of their final 67. The equivalent of winning 102 wins (.627 W%).

[Ramp]

To me, it comes down to our offense. If someone other than Gaby were to finally step up, we'd be in the thick of things.

It's amazing how underachieving the offense has been this season.

[Valid]

To me, it comes down to our offense. If someone other than Gaby were to finally step up, we'd be in the thick of things.

It's amazing how underachieving the offense has been this season.

You've gotta think that somewhere along the line, largely based on his streaky career, that Cantu is going to bust out and go on a tear. He could end up being the key.

[Ralph]

Cantu gon bust one tonight I bet.

[Party]

To me, it comes down to our offense. If someone other than Gaby were to finally step up, we'd be in the thick of things.

It's amazing how underachieving the offense has been this season.

Just an example:

Hanley Runs Created (using OBP x TB)

2007: 138.6
2008: 127.2
2009: 129
2010 (Projected): 106.02

Almost three wins and that's just Hanley.

[wanks1212]

Out.

Too many other teams to jump, too many issues with this team. But the winning streak is nice.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

I would love to say in but we're still below .500, the offense is too inconsistent and there's too many teams to jump. I think I'll be happy if we can just jump the Mets and finish the year in 3rd.

[Namaste]

Unfortunately, out

Like Wanks said there are just too many teams to jump. Knowing the Marlins though, they will probably make it very interesting.

[emkayseven]

Mba

Would you be happy if we made the playlets but volstad was in the minors the rest of the year?

question

[Namaste]

I love a perfectly placed Das reference

[wanks1212]

Knowing the Marlins though, they will probably make it very interesting.

Yeah, I can see them cutting this to two or three games with only 2-3 teams in front of them at some point over the next month or two and people getting excited, but they won't be able to overtake everyone. They'll probably finish in the 83 win range and around 7 games out, but they'll at least sustain interest for awhile.

[Ralph]

Yeah, I can see them cutting this to two or three games with only 2-3 teams in front of them at some point over the next month or two and people getting excited, but they won't be able to overtake everyone. They'll probably finish in the 83 win range and around 7 games out, but they'll at least sustain interest for awhile.

Well if they do that they are "in the race"

[wanks1212]

Not really, because they'll never have enough to take the WC lead and hold onto it. Having enough to temporarily knock the lead down to a few games isn't enough to be in the race if the team doesn't have the firepower to (1) take the WC lead and (2) hold that lead.

Getting close enough to be in shouting distance isn't "in the race," at least in my mind. To be in the race, there needs to be a realistic expectation that they can take the WC lead and hold onto that lead until the conclusion of the season. And I don't see them doing that. The best I see them doing is narrowing the lead to a couple of games.

[Ramp]

You've gotta think that somewhere along the line, largely based on his streaky career, that Cantu is going to bust out and go on a tear. He could end up being the key.

Cantu is the last person I would expect to go in the positive direction.

[Chewford]

We're really bad.