Gb

[nny]

i've been waiting all season for these things to change but they haven't

Hanley
38.6% -> 53.7%
+15% GB rate

Uggla
36.6% -> 45.8%
+9% GB rate

Cody
33% -> 47.2%
+14% GB rate

Hanley has been the only one improving but he's still in the upper 40's the past two months compared to the upper 50's the first two months.

Uggla's ISO is down .030 points because of it, Hanley's .020 (But he also has a rise in HR/FB%). And Cody's is down a massive .070 points.

Basically an explanation of what's happening to these guys power numbers: they're all hitting more ground balls. It's also why Cody and Uggla have a high BABIP than normal. In Uggla's case, it hasn't really made a differnece. But Cody needs to put the god damn ball in the air.

[wanks1212]

This was also a huge problem for Maybin when he was up at the MLB level, and Logan's GB rates don't bode overly well for his success, relative to what we'd expect of him, at the MLB level either.

[nny]

late but you overrate the whole gb thing. Yeah, if they get more FB, their power potential grows. And their power potential as prospects was likely overrated because of this, because scouts looked at their raw power and dreamed on what that could do.

But it's not a "problem" if you look at the power numbers they have been able to put up and expect those numbers, which are still fine power numbers.

It's a "problem" for these guys because it's not what they should be doing.

[wanks1212]

It is a problem for someone like Logan.

Part of the reason he's had the success he's had in the minors is because his BABIP has always been over .300. This year, it's well over .300 (.347) despite his > 50% GB rate.

In the majors, it's going to be nearly impossible for someone like him (slower, not a speedster) to have such a high BABIP with that type of GB rate. It just doesn't happen for corner infielders who lack speed. Or, well, it does, but it's so rare that it's counting on Logan to be the exception to the rule, which is always dangerous when evaluating a prospect.

Assuming his GB rate stays roughly the same when he comes up (I see little reason why it would drop - pitchers at the MLB level will be able to get him to beat the ball into the ground just as easily as AAA players), his BABIP is going to drop. Alot.

We may have done this exchange before, but look at the players with 50% or more GB rate. Then look at their BABIP. Then see how many of the ones with respectable to very good BABIP are the corner INF/power hitter type, not the speedster type. The sample size issues with every year still apply, of course.

2010

2009

2008


2007


Exceptions exist (Ryan Sweeney this year), but most of these guys with the high GB rates are, first of all, NOT power hitter types, so in some cases their BABIP is still fine.

Second, those who are power hitter types with high ground ball rates don't have the high BABIP that Logan's been fortunate enough to put up at AAA and, to a lesser extent, in AA. Because the fielders are much better in MLB and they'll scoop up more of those ground balls that land in the hole for a single or go down the line for extra bases in AAA/AA. Logan's not getting those breaks at the big league level, and that's going to detrimentally affect his BABIP and, in turn, his AVG/OBP.

It's not that the GB rate is going to kill all his power. It won't. But it's going to kill his BABIP, which in turn will kill his average and OBP. The ISO may be similar, but with a worse average/OBP he's not nearly as valuable. And unless he gets that GB rate down, his BABIP is going to drop when he comes to the majors, and so is that average/OBP.

[nny]

Is it the case that slow guys that hit GBs don't make it to the show, or that slow guys normally hit for power?

GB goes for hits more than FB. Hitting more FBs would do more damage to his BABIP than the GBs.

If we do +/- 2% of 50%

And obviously SPD score isn't a great way to judge speed but don't really have anything else at our disposal

Billy Butler has a career .322 BABIP with a 48% GB rate (I think he's logans best comparable, probably) with a 1.6! SPD score (Logan's been around 4 in his minor league career, 3.5 by chone and 4.1 by ZIPs projections going into the season).


The two I can find that go against that are

Andy LaRoche - 3.8 spd score, .257 BABIP, 48.4% GB rate
Casey Kotchman - 2.6 SPD score, .270 BABIP, 53% GB rate

But in both of their cases, their power did not translate either to the major league level, so they obviously have not been hitting the ball hard.

I mean, going through this to '02, these three are the only guys that 1) Is suppose to hit for power, 2) Is suppose to hit for average, and 3) hits a lot of ground balls. Butler's BABIP is good, but he's also hitting for power. Kotchman and LaRoche is bad, but they're hitting for shitty power. Sean Burroughs also fits gb/slow but he was never suppose to hit for power then never did (career .317 BABIP/52% gb rate though)

[wanks1212]

Yeah I understand it's a tough comparison. Logan really is kind of a newish type of player, because, like you said, most of those guys who hit alot of ground balls but are supposed to be power hitters don't translate to the majors. Alot of this is guesswork.

I know FB% leads to more outs and so on and so forth, but when evaluating Logan it's a little different because those fly balls should, one would hope, eventually start leaving the yard if his power develops as it should. I'd rather see Logan have an extreme fly ball rate than an extreme ground ball rate, because he's not beating out ground balls unless he gets faster (doubtful) but those fly balls may one day leave the yard or reach the gap.

As far as speed, I'm not a huge fan of speed score, and what worries me about Logan's athleticism (and in turn his speed) is that he's a 1B who's supposedly having a bit of difficulty playing defense in LF. To me, that reads unathletic, and generally unathletic is slow. I have no idea about his time up the first base line but I'd doubt it's good enough to beat out grounders to the right side of the infield. I've never seen him play for an extended period of time (i.e., not highlights) and am just going off batted ball data and newspaper/internet reports, so that may be wrong.

Let's say Logan settles in with a .280-.310 BABIP (wide enough range to give a low downside and moderate upside, and relatively realistic based on his minor league performance, outside of '10, and his batted ball rates). Even if he peaks out at a .180-.190 ISO (he's around .170 this year, he was in the .160-.165 range the two prior years, so that's a moderate increase), what's he looking at? An OPS around the .800 range? You have to figure that his walk rate drops if he's not hitting for as high of an average - even if it drops only to .100, that's still a bit of a drop but he's got nice patience. But the average kills that OPS, and, really, if his AVG drops because he's hitting the ball into the ground, pitchers aren't going to pitch around him as much.

If he's .270/.370/.450 in his prime, that's a good player, but not great because he won't be a plus defensively. But that's kinda the peak projection with his GB rates, unless the BABIP really doesn't dip even though he has that obscene GB rate, in which case maybe it's .285/.390/.465, which would be awesome.

But I don't see that happening with a ~50% GB rate, because the BABIP won't be high enough for a .285 average. I see him ending up a little closer to the .265/.360/.430, at least initially (ISO will go up as he's older, AVG may jump a bit depending on luck/the year), if that GB rate doesn't drop. Again, that's not bad by any means - the walk rate should at least ensure he has a cool OBP - but it's not a great line for a corner OF/IF with average to below average defense. He may figure some things out, or the power may develop more and he ISOs .190 with a .270ish average and a good walk rate and this doesn't matter. But with a guy like him, when pitchers see they can get him to just pound the ball into the ground all the time, they're going to exploit that, and it'll kill his average and OBP (and, in turn, the SLG, but not the ISO).

*didn't proofread, math may be off*
--------------------
Also: Butler's HR/BIA at AAA was 15.1 (2007) and 10.9 (2008). Logan's is 5.4 at NO and was 6.9 in AA.

[nny]

I didn't say that! I said we don't know. I said maybe that's it, or maybe there just aren't many around ever. You can't say "exception to the rule" if you don't know if it's a rule (And we don't know yet cuz data goes no where near far back enough).

And I certainly agree I'd much rather him hit more FBs than GBs, but he is what he is.

I agree about SPD score but again really don't have much to go on unfortunately. I haven't really seen much at all about his defense in LF, so if you can link to him having difficulty, but scouting reports on him has constantly been that he's athletic for his size. Yeah, that's with the qualifier with his size, but I severely doubt he's a bumbling loaf out there.

Rest...I mean GBs are GBs but it's just one thing, and it definitely will drop (And because OF defense from minors > majors doesn't really get worse, and in fact can be better because minors has a lot of speedsters that can't hit without the jack custs and adam dunns, whereas if defense sees a big jump), I don't see how it'll kill it. Going by totalzone, the translation from a AAA IF to a major league IF is worth about 20 runs in a season, or about 40 hits. Definitely big. But we're also talking about some 1500 balls in play. If we assume that's the numbers, 40 hits and 1500 balls in play, that's a 3% increase in balls that go for hits. 3% is a pretty big number, but that only effects his GBs. If we apply that 3% to his last 3 years, he'd have 12 less hits, dropping his BABIP from .344 to .330.

I'm now on my computer with the xBABIP spreadsheet. Obviously estimated is estimated and it's nowhere near suppose to be taken as should be, but using CHONE's projection, with a 50%/20%/30% GB/LD/FB rate and 5% IFFB, is a .326 BABIP (I personally expect babip in the .320-.330 range). fwiw chone had him at .313, zips at .314, but that doesn't take batted ball data into account.

[nny]

figured you might find this interesting, was bored earlier

So I did more indepth of stuff.

% of GB hits that would decrease if ML IF
AAA=3.0%
AA=3.0%
A+=3.3%
A=3.7%

So for Logan, 48.9% GB rate, he goes from .345 -> .328, 9.5% drop
For Stanton, 37.3% GB rate, he goes from .324 -> .310, a 4.3% drop
For Maybin, 55.0% GB rate, he goes from .387 -> .368, also a 9.5% drop

I wonder if there's data for BABIP on GB/LD/FB for minors like there is for majors

[wanks1212]

figured you might find this interesting, was bored earlier

So I did more indepth of stuff.

% of GBs that would decrease if ML IF
AAA=3.0%
AA=3.0%
A+=3.3%
A=3.7%

So for Logan, 48.9% GB rate, he goes from .345 -> .328, 9.5% drop
For Stanton, 37.3% GB rate, he goes from .324 -> .310, a 4.3% drop

What do you mean by this? % of groundballs that would be caught in MLB, but aren't caught at AAA?

I wonder if there's data for BABIP on GB/LD/FB for minors like there is for majors

I've been looking for that forever and haven't been able to find it, but it's probably out there somewhere.

[nny]

Sorry yeah I edit it with Maybin and realized that that was worded horrible. Would be % of GB hits that would instead be outs if MLB infield, so yes

[wanks1212]

Yeah, but Maybin's BABIP has been all over the place though. Sample size issues aside:

2009:

AAA: 343 PA, 54.5 GB%, .382 BABIP
MLB: 199 PA, 51.5 GB%, .317 BABIP

2010:

AAA: 35 PA, 50.0 GB%, .417 BABIP
MLB: 201 PA, 53.9 GB%, .293 BABIP

I mean, I know that's just one guy but yeesh. That's quite a drop from AAA to MLB wtih the similar GB rates, although his LD rate decreased also.

[nny]

and drop in power shows he isn't hitting it as hard (Well, outside of AAA 2009, but, small sample size), but his career he's sitting on .332 BABIP with same 55% GB rate and similar LD rate. I certainly don't expect him to be around .370