Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Starting Pitchers, Waivers, and The Marlins

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Starting Pitchers, Waivers, and The Marlins

    In the next week, just about every player on every roster in baseball will be put through waivers. Some pitchers won't clear (Halladay, Santana, JJ, Lincecum, etc), but some will.

    I thought this could be a fun thread to both speculate as to who may clear, and more than that, who may and may be a good fit, since I think everyone (and I hope that includes Beinfest & Co.) realize we're at least 1 starter short, and almost certainly a left-handed starter short.

    So, to kick this thread off, the 5 starting pitchers I'd consider most likely to clear waivers that fit our needs:



    #1 Paul Maholm (1 year, $2.5 mil, arby eligible 2010, 2011) - 6-6, 4.75 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 134.2 innings, 84 K's 42 BB's. He's due a lot of cash for a back end starter, so he'll probably clear. The Pirates are having a going out of business sale, so he'll probably be imminently available once he clears, and honestly I love him for 2 reasons: he's left-handed and logs innings. The only real question is, with the Pirates owning his 2010 and 2011 seasons, do they ask for more than would normally befit a 4th starter, and, most importantly, do they kick in the cash we'll almost assuredly seek to cover his remaining salary.

    #2 Carl Pavano (1 year, $1.5 mil) - 9-8, 5.37 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 125.2 innings, 88 K's 23 BB. If rumors are to be believed, we kicked the tires heavily on him. Truthfully, he'd be an ideal fit as a 4/5 in the NL; and we know he can pitch well at Landshark Stadium. Whether or not he clears is another story. The Indians obviously like him enough to pull him back to any claiming team that's simply there to block him, and $750K with no 2010 commitment is enticing to a lot of contending teams, so there's no fear of being "stuck" with him, but I'd suspect we put a claim in on him and try to work something out. Truthfully, he's the best name on the list, but I doubt he clears; we'd have to hope he falls to us and we can work something out with the Indians in the 48 hours we'd have to do so.

    #3 Jon Garland (1 year, $6.25 mil) - 6-10, 4.26 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 137.1 innings, 59 K's, 45 BB's. He's had a bad year, but he will assuredly clear. The D'Backs are going no where this year or next, so they'd love to have something to show for a bad signing. My gut says Tucker is probably enough to flat out get him, Tucker + gets him and his salary paid for in full. He's pitched really well recently, running 7 straight quality starts in his last 7 starts. He's a great fit for us if we can swing the remaining salary. Still, when you're as tantalizingly close as we are now, you'd hope we'd bite the bullet if he comes (as I'd expect) cheaply.

    #4 Brian Bannister (1 year $1.74 mil; arby eligible 2010) - I only put his name on here because he'd been dangled, he's a guy who possibly clears only out of fear that someone'd be on the hook for his $900K or so due the rest of the season. He'd also be a guy worth paying an August price (yeah, that pun was semi-intentional) to acquire as he'd make the rotation going forward oh so sexy.

    #5 - Brian Tallet (1 year deal, $1.15 mil); 5-6, 5.03 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 112 innings, 83 K's, 55 BB - No he's not perfect, but with about $500K due the rest of the year, he's a safe bet to clear since the Jays would probably just flat out assign him to a claiming team. At the least he gives us back end of the rotation innings, as a lefty, plus, his arsenal of junk pitches probably suit themselves well for Landshark Stadium.

  • #2
    Great post. I like where you're going with your logic on Maholm, I think we could get him from the Bucs.
    God would be expecting a first pitch breaking ball in the dirt because humans love to disappoint him.
    - Daft

    Comment


    • #3
      brian bannister does sound very sexy. very good post.
      I wouldn't be caught dead with a necrophiliac!

      Comment


      • #4
        I do love some Brian Bannister
        CSBC Commish

        Comment


        • #5
          I don't see how Bannister clears. He has 3 more years of service time and is a good middle of the rotation guy. and KC was supposedly asking a lot for him before the deadline.

          I wouldn't be against Maholm but I'm sure Hunnington also realizes it'd be selling low on him: his peripherals say he's still a ~4 ERA pitcher, not the near-5 he has been this year. That's why he's held on to him.

          Garland and Pavano and Tallet I don't really see doing any better than Hensley, really. at that point it's making a move just to make a move.

          Comment


          • #6
            I believe Tallet was recently moved to the bullpen, FWIW.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by nny View Post
              Garland and Pavano and Tallet I don't really see doing any better than Hensley, really. at that point it's making a move just to make a move.
              really on Pavano not being better than Hensley?


              Pavano (MLB)

              WHIP: 1.38
              K/9: 6.3
              BB/9: 1.65
              HR/9: 1.36
              GB%: 44.8
              FIP: 4.25

              Hensley (AAA NO)

              WHIP:1.31
              K/9:5.03
              BB/9: 3.06
              HR/9: 0.66
              GB%: 49.4
              FIP:4.51

              At the ML level, Pavano has better K rates and BB rates than Hensley has at the MILB level. Pavano's more likely to give up the long ball, but gotta figure (or at least hope) those HRs come down a little moving to Land Shark.

              (Neither Pavano nor Hensley have out of whack BABIP either)

              Hensley may be more likely to induce grounders - assuming he can maintain that GB rate at the ML level, which may not happen - but Pavano's superior K rates/BB rates and the fact that he does induce a good # of GBs make me think he'd actually be a decent bet as a back of the rotation starter. Much safer than Hensley and probably a fair amount better, too. Better than any other internal options as well. I have a hard time believing Anibal comes back and puts up those peripherals.

              Hensley just worries me too much with his K rates nad BB rates. Even if he maintains his current rates up in the majors (and he hasn't been improving his MILB rates) he's still not going to have great peripherals, meanign he probably won't have great results.

              Pavano's a great option, and due to the escalators in this contract for the increases in IP (I don't know the exact increments) there's a good chance he'll pass through waivers. Now, if he'll cost any type of halfway decent prospect he may not be worth it, but for basically nothing/PTNBL, yeah, Pavano's a big help.

              Comment


              • #8
                The difference between a 4.5 era and a 4.2 era from here on out is 3 runs.

                not much of a difference

                i probably worded it badly though for what I meant

                Comment


                • #9
                  Maholm and Bannister are the most intriguing.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by nny View Post
                    The difference between a 4.5 era and a 4.2 era from here on out is 3 runs.

                    not much of a difference
                    I understand that. But at the same time, it's more likely Pavano pitches at his 4.25 MLB FIP level than it is that Hensley maintains or betters his 4.5 AAA FIP into the majors. And along those lines, the difference between them would probably be more than 3 runs, imo, especially if Pavano drops his HR/9 in Land Shark (kinda likely) and if he gets a bit of a boost coming to the NL (not nearly as likely, but it seems to get mentioned every time someone switches leagues)

                    then again, that's more just semantics than anything, but the point is valid

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by wanks1212 View Post
                      I understand that. But at the same time, it's more likely Pavano pitches at his 4.25 MLB FIP level than it is that Hensley maintains or betters his 4.5 AAA FIP into the majors. And along those lines, the difference between them would probably be more than 3 runs, imo, especially if Pavano drops his HR/9 in Land Shark (kinda likely) and if he gets a bit of a boost coming to the NL (not nearly as likely, but it seems to get mentioned every time someone switches leagues)

                      then again, that's more just semantics than anything, but the point is valid
                      I think he could basically duplicate his '06 (4.15 FIP) but with more HRs since going from PetCo to Landshark (he had 9% HR/FB at petco. Let's say...12%? Would increase his HRs from 15->20 up to 0.96 HR/9).

                      He's repertoire is just not something that dominates hitters so I wouldn't expect eye popping MILB numbers

                      However I do think ~5.5 K/9 and ~3.75 BB/9 would be more along the lines of what to expect. add that to ~0.96 HR/9 and you get 4.61 FIP.

                      But

                      I know we basically concede to one another so this isn't really a response to you but just more of the public that I wanted to post before

                      KISS is a programing saying that stands for Keep It Simple, Stupid.

                      Which can be applied to everything in life, not just programming. Adding something unnecessary for the sake of adding something just brings complexity.

                      Since we have an option sitting in our minors right now, I'd personally call up clay for a couple starts, tell him "You only get one shot, do not miss your chance to blow. This opportunity comes once in a life time you better...", and see how he does. If he sucks it up, make a move. If he doesn't, we have our answer. But there's no point in stock piling arms for 2 months.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Malholm and Bannister would be nice but NO WAY either 1 of them get thru waivers or even to us.

                        The problem with Pavano is we did not wanna pay his salary. I know for a fact that we were talking with Cleveland and they want him gone however not just giving him away which is what we thought would happen.

                        Cleveland is now said to be OK just holding onto him until next season since they have so many young guys up there.They will try to get him thru just because every team tries to get everyone thru this time of year.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I agree with tj, that no way Maholm or Bannister clears. And I agree with nny who cares about Tallet.

                          Also Swift, you have to add Pavano's wild incentives clauses to his contract value.

                          starts: $0.1M each for 18, 20, 22; $0.2M each for 24, 26, 28; $0.25M for 30; $0.3M for 32; $0.35M each for 33, 34; $0.4M for 35
                          innings: $0.1M each for 130, 140, 150; $0.15M each for 160, 170; $0.2M for 180; $0.25M each for 190, 200, 210; $0.3M for 215; $0.4M for 225; $0.5M for 235

                          Pavano is at 21 starts, and remaining games divided by 5 means he will pitch 11-12 more times. He's at 125.2 IP, and averaging 6 (5.98 really) IP per start.

                          So start 22 $100,000, starts 24, 26, 28 $600,000, start 30 $250,000, start 32 $300,000.
                          So innings 130, 140, 150 $300,000, 160 and 170 $300,000, 180 $200,000, 190 $250,000.

                          So Pavano the rest of the year (as of right now)
                          Base Salary = Approx. $500,000
                          Starts Incentives = $1,250,000
                          Innings Incentives = $1,050,000
                          Total = $2.8 Million

                          And Garland also has a $2.5 million buyout. He costs you between $4.5-$5 million here on out right now.

                          --

                          So I think a $2.5 millionish Pavano, and a $4.5 millionish Garland both clear. I'd add Doug Davis (about $3 million) and Livan Hernandez (under $1 million) to the list as well. They each exactly have a 1.50 whip this year, but both are capable of pitching 6 and 'only' giving up 4 runs every night. Which I may say, is an improvement. I think other clears will be Harang and Arroyo, both well over $10 million for 2010, and Oliver Perez (over $25 million lol).

                          I think any of these guys would be very useful to us, but there is a significant amount of salary to take on with everyone but Livan. I'd have to imagine if Pavano clears in a week, and the Marlins call asking for him and $ 2 million for Ryan Tucker, they'd have to take it. Why wouldn't they?

                          Guess we'll see.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by lou View Post
                            I agree with tj, that no way Maholm or Bannister clears. And I agree with nny who cares about Tallet.

                            Also Swift, you have to add Pavano's wild incentives clauses to his contract value.

                            starts: $0.1M each for 18, 20, 22; $0.2M each for 24, 26, 28; $0.25M for 30; $0.3M for 32; $0.35M each for 33, 34; $0.4M for 35
                            innings: $0.1M each for 130, 140, 150; $0.15M each for 160, 170; $0.2M for 180; $0.25M each for 190, 200, 210; $0.3M for 215; $0.4M for 225; $0.5M for 235

                            Pavano is at 21 starts, and remaining games divided by 5 means he will pitch 11-12 more times. He's at 125.2 IP, and averaging 6 (5.98 really) IP per start.

                            So start 22 $100,000, starts 24, 26, 28 $600,000, start 30 $250,000, start 32 $300,000.
                            So innings 130, 140, 150 $300,000, 160 and 170 $300,000, 180 $200,000, 190 $250,000.

                            So Pavano the rest of the year (as of right now)
                            Base Salary = Approx. $500,000
                            Starts Incentives = $1,250,000
                            Innings Incentives = $1,050,000
                            Total = $2.8 Million

                            And Garland also has a $2.5 million buyout. He costs you between $4.5-$5 million here on out right now.

                            --

                            So I think a $2.5 millionish Pavano, and a $4.5 millionish Garland both clear. I'd add Doug Davis (about $3 million) and Livan Hernandez (under $1 million) to the list as well. They each exactly have a 1.50 whip this year, but both are capable of pitching 6 and 'only' giving up 4 runs every night. Which I may say, is an improvement. I think other clears will be Harang and Arroyo, both well over $10 million for 2010, and Oliver Perez (over $25 million lol).

                            I think any of these guys would be very useful to us, but there is a significant amount of salary to take on with everyone but Livan. I'd have to imagine if Pavano clears in a week, and the Marlins call asking for him and $ 2 million for Ryan Tucker, they'd have to take it. Why wouldn't they?

                            Guess we'll see.
                            and there is your reason why we want Cleveland to pay his contract.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              The PB Post had an interesting spin on the rotation for the rest of the season:

                              The Marlins have 57 games remaining, and with off days factored in, they will need at least eight starts from a No. 5 starter. That also assumes that Rick VandenHurk, who is 1-0 in three starts, will fill the fourth spot for the final two months.

                              The top three pitchers: Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad and Ricky Nolasco could have as many as 37 more starts combined. The Marlins are 39-24 in games started by Johnson, Volstad and Nolasco and are 16-25 in all others.
                              http://www.palmbeachpost.com/marlins...lins_0804.html

                              So, let's say that we find an in-house solution for the #4 spot (RVH runs with it, or RVH -> Anibal -> West -> Miller or some combination thereof).

                              If we're looking at just 8 starts left, that makes Lou's Pavano projection look overly ambitious. Instead of 11-12 starts, you're talking 7 or 8 (since if need be, we could short rest JJ/Nolasco with the off-days in September & October 1st before the final series in Philadelphia).

                              Ergo, our schedule potentially "saves" us at least $250K and as much as $1 million with Pavano if we flip flop the rotation around and use some combination of the arms we have to squeeze out a few starts and, of course, maximize the number of starts we get out of JJ, Nolasco and Volstad.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X