This Just In: Josh Johnson Is Good

[Swifty]

ESPN's Jayson Stark has a new column up about the "pitching stock market" premised around which pitchers represent the best chance for favorable returns over the next 10 years. Coming in second place (and the top NL pitcher) is our very own Josh Johnson.

2. RHP Josh Johnson, Marlins (age 26)
Here's a shocker. The great Ubaldo didn't finish second in this race, either. Johnson actually outpolled him, 12 votes to 11, even though they're the same age.

So what's up with that? Well, the Josh Johnson Fan Club loves the chances of this 6-foot-7, 240-pound monster holding up to be "a horse for the next 10 years." Plus, quipped one panelist, "He's already had Tommy John [surgery], so he's got that out of the way."

But beyond the "absolutely overpowering weapons," our panelists kept extolling Johnson's "drive to be special" and his "great desire to be the best." He also has the aura of a star who's on the rise. Since this guy came back from his Tommy John surgery just before the 2008 All-Star break, he's 28-8 and has the best winning percentage (.778) among all big league starters not named Chris Carpenter (24-6, .800).

To me, the only thing keeping Johnson from absolute super-duper stardom is his repertoire of pitches. He has a mid 90's fastball, a tight slider and a changeup. Not very sexy. If he were getting results with a knee-buckling curveball, a splitter or even a gyro-ball, people would be taking more notice of the big guy. I'll gladly watch him be dominant just as is, but it's a shame more people don't realize how unbelievably good this guy is.

[Valid]

Yeah. The thing with Johnson is that his fastball is so overpowering and he can pinpoint it with such accuracy that he doesn't need a wide repertoire of pitches. The guy is an animal.

[Mainge]

ESPN's Jayson Stark has a new column up about the "pitching stock market" premised around which pitchers represent the best chance for favorable returns over the next 10 years. Coming in second place (and the top NL pitcher) is our very own Josh Johnson.



To me, the only thing keeping Johnson from absolute super-duper stardom is his repertoire of pitches. He has a mid 90's fastball, a tight slider and a changeup. Not very sexy. If he were getting results with a knee-buckling curveball, a splitter or even a gyro-ball, people would be taking more notice of the big guy. I'll gladly watch him be dominant just as is, but it's a shame more people don't realize how unbelievably good this guy is.

He was throwing something nasty last night. Tommy called it a cutter but I think it moved too much for a cutter, but it cut more than his slider does.

[Valid]

Maybe it was a two-seamer?

[Mainge]

a two-seamer would run, not cut.

[Swifty]

I just thought it was his slider.

If it was a cutter, the velocity wasn't there (or the stadium gun was way off).

[Mainge]

He threw one to Counsel that was 92.

Idk, it could have been his slider.

[Bobbob1313]

PitchFX has a 91.9 MPH slider for him. That had to be it.

[LocoMarlinFan]

Johnson Leads WAR at Labor Day
by Jack Moore - September 7, 2010

As we head down the stretch, the name at the top of the pitcher WAR leaderboard might be surprising, but it shouldn’t be shocking. The title reveals that the leader in pitcher WAR at this point, nearly 85% of the way through the season, is Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson – not Roy Halladay, nor Ubaldo Jimenez, not Cliff Lee, not Felix Hernandez, and not CC Sabathia. Johnson is establishing himself as possibly the best pitcher in the game, coming off a 5.5 WAR, 209 IP, 3.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP 2009 season and posting even more remarkable numbers in 2010. In 183 innings this season, Johnson has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.44 FIP – good for 6.3 WAR to date.

By no means is the race over. Halladay, Francisco Liriano, Lee, and Hernandez are all within 0.4 WAR of Johnson and could certainly catch him over the course of a few more starts. That said, it certainly doesn’t feel like Josh Johnson’s season has received the play that it deserves, whether it be in this space or across the country. Everybody already knows about Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee’s K/BB numbers are prepared to shatter records. Ubaldo Jimenez’s season began with the ludicrous ERA and the possibility of a 25 win season. Francisco Liriano gets the huge NERD scores for an ERA which remains nearly a run above his FIP due to an inexplicable .344 BABIP. Perhaps it’s because I live in the Midwest and therefore see little of Johnson on TV, but it feels that the attention given to Johnson’s season pales in comparison to those of these pitchers, not to mention guys like Clay Buchholz and CC Sabathia who have sparkly traditional numbers on playoff teams.

There’s no reason whatsoever not to like Josh Johnson’s season. He has a respectable 11-6 record with a 2.30 ERA. He has struck out 186 batters in 183 innings while walking only 48 and allowing only 7 homers. He has kept 46% of balls in play on the ground. His swinging strike rate of 11.8% rivals those of top relief pitchers. He hits the zone more than the average pitcher, and gets the first strike nearly 65% of the time. Basically, Johnson does everything that you can ask out of a pitcher, and for that reason Johnson has been the best pitcher in baseball according to our WAR, and I find it difficult to argue with that conclusion.

Between 2009 and 2010, Josh Johnson has now posted 11.8 wins above replacement. Projecting pitchers can be dangerous, but Johnson has a powerful fastball, fantastic secondary stuff, an ability to strike batters out, and solid control of the strike zone. Only a select few pitchers in the game can challenge the arsenal of picthes and skills that Johnson brings to the mound every single time out. That’s why Josh Johnson leads the league in WAR coming down the stretch of the season, and that’s why Josh Johnson just might be the single best pitcher in baseball.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index...-at-labor-day/

[FishFanInPA]

why can't he have more wins

[Metes]

Because that matters a whole hell of a lot