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Over at the Marlins' official site, Joe Frisaro noted that the Marlins are pushing Jorge Cantu as an All-Star. "It's hard to dispute the numbers," Frisaro says. I found it easy, though.
The fire is being fanned by the fact that Cantu is leading the National League in RBI with 42 (he is currently tied with Atlanta's Troy Glaus). I'm of the school of thought that "clutch hitting" isn't really a skill and, therefore, RBI is a stat that is mostly dependent on the preceding hitters.
If Cantu had 32 RBIs right now, or even 35 (which would place him 12th in the National League), I don't see how there's any way he's an All-Star. His OPS is just over .800, he's not a good fielder, and for a position like third base, he doesn't provide a ton of home runs. But the fact is that he's leading the league right now, and if that is still true at the All-Star Break, history says it's an almost-certain ticket to Anaheim.
Historically, players who lead their leagues in RBIs at the Break are All-Stars, plain and simple. There have been very few players to be in this position at the Break without becoming an All-Star. There's Derek Bell with the Astros in 1995, but of course, that was a slightly-shortened season due to the strike. But Bell wasn't the sole leader at the Break, as Reggie Sanders had the same number of RBIs as Bell. Other co-leaders who didn't make the game are Jeff Burroughs (1976) and Davey Johnson (1965) and Hank Sauer (1948). As for sole leaders at the break that didn't make it, there have been just two: Tony Perez in 1980, and Nick Etten in 1943. So overall, we're looking at six total guys who led their league in RBI at the Break and didn't make The Game. Four of them were co-leaders and two were sole leaders.
Does that make Cantu an automatic All-Star if he's the leader? I'm not sold. That's not to say I don't love Jorge Cantu (I do) or I don't appreciate every one of his RBIs (my fantasy team does). I just don't think he's deserving of it. Not on a team where Hanley Ramirez is a shoo-in, Josh Johnson is likely, and Dan Uggla and Leo Nunez - and maybe even Anibal Sanchez, if he keeps this up - are on the bubble. Not in a league where Ryan Zimmerman (1.014 OPS) and Scott Rolen (.936 OPS, great fielding) are deserving of a start, and David Wright (.854 OPS, 10 steals, good fielding), Casey McGehee (.857 OPS, 1 fewer RBI than Cantu) are deserving of a roster space. And that's not counting the fact that the starting third baseman likely won't be any of them, since Placido Polanco plays in Philadelphia, where fans stuff the ballot boxes endlessly.
Put it all together, and I think it's pretty easy to dispute the numbers - or at least the "number," since there's only one number fueling this All-Star push. If the All-Star Break comes and Cantu is still leading the league in RBIs but hitting the same way he is now, I'd expect him to become the seventh guy in his position to stay home. The Marlins have at least four more deserving players, and the National League has at least four more deserving third basemen.
The fire is being fanned by the fact that Cantu is leading the National League in RBI with 42 (he is currently tied with Atlanta's Troy Glaus). I'm of the school of thought that "clutch hitting" isn't really a skill and, therefore, RBI is a stat that is mostly dependent on the preceding hitters.
If Cantu had 32 RBIs right now, or even 35 (which would place him 12th in the National League), I don't see how there's any way he's an All-Star. His OPS is just over .800, he's not a good fielder, and for a position like third base, he doesn't provide a ton of home runs. But the fact is that he's leading the league right now, and if that is still true at the All-Star Break, history says it's an almost-certain ticket to Anaheim.
Historically, players who lead their leagues in RBIs at the Break are All-Stars, plain and simple. There have been very few players to be in this position at the Break without becoming an All-Star. There's Derek Bell with the Astros in 1995, but of course, that was a slightly-shortened season due to the strike. But Bell wasn't the sole leader at the Break, as Reggie Sanders had the same number of RBIs as Bell. Other co-leaders who didn't make the game are Jeff Burroughs (1976) and Davey Johnson (1965) and Hank Sauer (1948). As for sole leaders at the break that didn't make it, there have been just two: Tony Perez in 1980, and Nick Etten in 1943. So overall, we're looking at six total guys who led their league in RBI at the Break and didn't make The Game. Four of them were co-leaders and two were sole leaders.
Does that make Cantu an automatic All-Star if he's the leader? I'm not sold. That's not to say I don't love Jorge Cantu (I do) or I don't appreciate every one of his RBIs (my fantasy team does). I just don't think he's deserving of it. Not on a team where Hanley Ramirez is a shoo-in, Josh Johnson is likely, and Dan Uggla and Leo Nunez - and maybe even Anibal Sanchez, if he keeps this up - are on the bubble. Not in a league where Ryan Zimmerman (1.014 OPS) and Scott Rolen (.936 OPS, great fielding) are deserving of a start, and David Wright (.854 OPS, 10 steals, good fielding), Casey McGehee (.857 OPS, 1 fewer RBI than Cantu) are deserving of a roster space. And that's not counting the fact that the starting third baseman likely won't be any of them, since Placido Polanco plays in Philadelphia, where fans stuff the ballot boxes endlessly.
Put it all together, and I think it's pretty easy to dispute the numbers - or at least the "number," since there's only one number fueling this All-Star push. If the All-Star Break comes and Cantu is still leading the league in RBIs but hitting the same way he is now, I'd expect him to become the seventh guy in his position to stay home. The Marlins have at least four more deserving players, and the National League has at least four more deserving third basemen.
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