Anibal Sanchez 2010: JJ Lite

[Swifty]

Because he lost a lot of weight.

[wanks1212]

Have to be impressed with what Anibal's done so far this year. He's been that solid, middle-of-the-rotation anchor the starting staff needed.

[nny]

I'd say he's been more, and shown that he can continue to be more, than a middle of the rotation starter.

With how much of a drop off Ricky's had, who is preforming like a middle of the rotation starter, I wouldn't be surprised if Anibal is the pitcher labeled #2 at the end of the season. Ricky's always going to have the awesome K/BB yeah, and Anibal probably won't be too much better than average there, but Anibal is so much better at preventing HRs and XBH (0.80 HR/9 in his career, 1.20 for ricky, that's 10 more HRs over 200 innings. .176 ISO against for Ricky jesus that's high, .129 for Anibal).

[wanks1212]

Well Anibal's numbers aren't going to be this pretty all season, largely because his HR/FB% isn't gonna stay at 1.6% all season. And even as good as Anibal's been and as bad as Ricky's been, Ricky still has a lower FIP and xFIP than Anibal (largely because of the K/BB advantage for Ricky and the unsustaniably low HR/FB rate for Anibal, I'm sure), both for this season and their careers.

I'm not yet convinced Anibal's going to end the year with better results than Ricky, but it will probably be close, no matter what. And slotting in Ricky and Anibal behind JJ for the next few years looks to be the makings of a pretty solid rotation - and if Volstad can keep up his impersonation of a middle to back of the rotation starter, this team is a Sean West (or another lefty) emergence away from being fairly set at SP for the next 2-3 years, finances willing.

[Swifty]

Looks like we can add Anibal to the growing list of pitchers that show it's really a 2 1/2 year recovery for labrum surgery.

[nny]

Well Anibal's numbers aren't going to be this pretty all season, largely because his HR/FB% isn't gonna stay at 1.6% all season. And even as good as Anibal's been and as bad as Ricky's been, Ricky still has a lower FIP and xFIP than Anibal (largely because of the K/BB advantage for Ricky and the unsustaniably low HR/FB rate for Anibal, I'm sure), both for this season and their careers.

I'm not yet convinced Anibal's going to end the year with better results than Ricky, but it will probably be close, no matter what. And slotting in Ricky and Anibal behind JJ for the next few years looks to be the makings of a pretty solid rotation - and if Volstad can keep up his impersonation of a middle to back of the rotation starter, this team is a Sean West (or another lefty) emergence away from being fairly set at SP for the next 2-3 years, finances willing.

part1: Anibal actually has a significant lower FIP (Though yeah, HR/FB%). And in regards to xFIP, the thing is so far in his career he's been lower than average. If you apply his career rate to his xFIP, rather than using ML average, you get a xFIP of 3.86. 350 IP is still a rather small sample size though of coarse.

part2: I agree that I think they'll finish around with similiar results, with Nolasco having superior K/BB and Anibal superior extra base hits against. Just wouldn't be surprised if Anibal is better.

And shitty fun fact: both Nolasco and Anibal have 3 years of service time since he won his grievance. So finances willing is probably a no And with his injury history I really would not want to give him a multi year contract. But that'd put his walk year in 2012, so can still have him for the stadium opening.

[kylekash]

I don't know about the injury history. I wouldn't lock him up now or anything crazy like that, but if he can prove that he can stay healthy in the next couple of years you may start to think about it.

They gave a multi-year deal to JJ, who has had some injuries in the past.

Although with this front office, I don't think even with the new revenue streams of a new stadium that they really want to give multi year deals to pitchers. It's just something they really don't like to do unless your talking about a potential ace who really dominates like JJ.

[The Hanram]

I don't know about the injury history. I wouldn't lock him up now or anything crazy like that, but if he can prove that he can stay healthy in the next couple of years you may start to think about it.

They gave a multi-year deal to JJ, who has had some injuries in the past.

Although with this front office, I don't think even with the new revenue streams of a new stadium that they really want to give multi year deals to pitchers. It's just something they really don't like to do unless your talking about a potential ace who really dominates like JJ.

Anibal had shoulder surgery. Much bigger risk than Tommy John nowadays.

But if Anibal proves he can stay healthy, I wouldn't mind a 2 or 3 year deal IF the money was right.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

The organization said that they won't increase payroll significantly until the new stadium opens. If Anibal keeps pitching like he has been and Ricky goes back to being the Ricky we're used to, they are both going to be due some hefty raises next year. I do not see the organization paying both of them that kind of money. I expect one of them will be dealt this offseason and, with Anibal's inury history, I expect it to be him.

[kylekash]

Well, it depends where the organization wants to go as far as positional players is concerned. If Uggla, Cantu, and Ross come off the books next year and are replaced by Stanton, LoMo, and Boner (shutters) they are going to be shedding about 15-20 mil in payroll right there. They should be able to put that cash into other parts of the team like the rotation.

[wanks1212]

part1: Anibal actually has a significant lower FIP (Though yeah, HR/FB%). And in regards to xFIP, the thing is so far in his career he's been lower than average. If you apply his career rate to his xFIP, rather than using ML average, you get a xFIP of 3.86. 350 IP is still a rather small sample size though of coarse.

Yeah, when I looked FIP hadn't been updated for Sunday's performance, because I was looking during the game/shortly after.

part2: I agree that I think they'll finish around with similiar results, with Nolasco having superior K/BB and Anibal superior extra base hits against. Just wouldn't be surprised if Anibal is better.

Yep.

But if Anibal proves he can stay healthy, I wouldn't mind a 2 or 3 year deal IF the money was right.

Given the reasonably expected payroll limitations in the next 3-4 years, I can't think of any scenario where going more than year to year with Anibal is advisable for a team like the Marlins. Yes, they may save money and get a good pitcher and all, but with Anibal that injury risk is just so damn high and the cost of paying an Anibal $5+mil to watch from the dugout hurts a team like the Marlins so much.

Now, if the Marlins raised payroll to like ~$95-100 million when the stadium opened, ala what the Twins did, then maybe. But I also can't imagine them doing that as long as Loria owns the team.

[Miamarlin21]

I honestly do not see the Marlins giving any other pitcher long-term deals other than MAYBE Ricky Nolasco, hell, he probably won't even get one.

[LocoMarlinFan]

Anibal Sanchez’s Value
by David Golebiewski - June 17, 2010

Anibal Sanchez has endured a star-crossed career. The former Red Sox farmhand, picked up by the Marlins as part of the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell/Hanley Ramirez mega-deal in November of 2005, punched out over ten batters per nine innings in the minors. In its 2006 Prospect Handbook, Baseball America remarked that while Florida desired Jon Lester in the Beckett deal, Sanchez was “a premium prospect in his own right.” And on September 6, 2006, Sanchez sat on top of the baseball world, no-hitting the Arizona Diamondbacks in the thirteenth start of his rookie season.

Over the next three years, however, Sanchez would spend more time rehabbing than trying to retire big league batters. While a Sox prospect, he overcame 2003 surgery to transpose a nerve in his right elbow. But injuries again crept into the picture — Sanchez underwent labrum surgery in May of 2007. After a near-15 month absence from a major league mound, he returned on trade deadline day of 2008. Unfortunately, shoulder woes derailed his 2009 season as well — he spent nearly four months on the DL. Over the 2007-2009 period, Sanchez logged just 167.2 MLB innings.

So far this season, it appears as though Sanchez is finally making good on those predictions of acedom. In 81 frames, the 26-year-old right-hander has a 3.22 ERA. That puts him in the same company as studs like Mat Latos and Tommy Hanson. Fantasy owners have been slow to get on board, though, as Sanchez is owned in just 38 percent of Yahoo leagues. Should more players be scrambling to the waiver wire to snag Anibal, or is that reticence well-justified?

During his first 13 starts of the season, Sanchez has 6.78 K/9, 3.44 BB/9 and a 44.3 percent groundball rate. If those numbers sound rather run-of-the-mill, that’s because they are — in 2010, the average MLB hurler has whiffed 7.02 batters per nine innings, with 3.45 BB/9 and a groundball rate around 44 percent. During his big league career, Sanchez has 6.64 K/9, 4.19 BB/9 and a 43.4 GB%. He’s issuing fewer walks than in years past, which is certainly a positive. But there’s nothing here that portends to a great leap forward.

Similarly, his plate discipline stats show some, though not a ton, of improvement. Sanchez’s rate of first pitch strikes is up, sitting at 59.4 percent (55.6% career average, 58% MLB average). Also, he’s getting swings on pitches out of the zone 29.6% (28.1% MLB average), the first time his O-Swing has surpassed the big league average. But his 8.9 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with his 8.7% career mark (8-9% MLB average), as is his 80.8% contact rate (80.2% career average, 80-81% MLB average).

So how is Sanchez’s ERA in the low three’s? Homers. Or rather, a lack thereof. When opponents loft a fly ball against Sanchez, it’s leaving the yard just 3.4 percent of the time. That’s the fifth-lowest rate among qualified big league starters. For comparison, the major league average is about 11 percent, and Sanchez’s career rate entering 2010 was 8.7 percent. Dolphin…er, Sun Life Stadium had a neutral HR/FB park factor over the past few years. There’s very little chance that Sanchez continues to see so many balls die at the warning track.

His xFIP, based on strikeouts, walks and a normalized HR/FB rate, is 4.34. That’s better than his recent work — 4.43 in 2008 and 4.64 last season — but not greatly so. Sanchez has essentially been a slightly above-average starter who has gotten some big breaks in the dinger department. I think Sanchez is certainly worth a roster spot in NL-only leagues, and he could be an option in deeper mixed formats. But keep in mind that, between his voluminous injury history and ERA drop based on a factor largely out of the pitcher’s control, Sanchez is far from a sure thing.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/ind...anchezs-value/

[wanks1212]

hey david, you're about three weeks late to this party

[emkayseven]

The reasoning to start Anibal Sanchez on Monday instead of Sunday is sound enough. With Alex Sanabia on a pitch count, the Marlins don't want him and Nate Robertson going back to back. The Marlins like Sanchez's chances of getting deep into his start, lessening the chance of tapping the bullpen early on consecutive days.

That decision probably cost Sanchez $25,000. Sanchez has four $25,000 incentives based on games started, the last of which triggers at 32. By throwing Monday instead of Sunday, Sanchez would finish the season with 31 starts if he throws every fifth game.

between putting him on the MILB DL a few years back and this, he must really hate this team.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/f...,7388191.story