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Time To Worry About Coghlan?

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  • Time To Worry About Coghlan?

    0-6; 1; 0.

    Now, time for an explanation: 0-6 is pretty straightforward, it was Coghlan's line last night. The first time he got at least 5 AB's this season and did not record a hit.

    The 1 is Coghlan's walk total this season, 33 AB'S, 1 walk...a tidy .176 OBP.

    The 0 is Coghlan's extra-base hit total this season; 5 hits, all singles.

    Yes, it's only been a week, and yes, if anyone had a 5/33 stretch in, oh say, June, everyone just calls it a bad stretch and moves on.

    Here's the problem though, it's not bad luck, it's not a "slow start." Coming out of the gate cold does not mean a slow start, slow starts are usually associated with hard luck outs and players who are excelling in other areas offensively (say, hitting for power but no average, or walking a decent amount); quite simply, there's a difference between a "slow start" and a "bad start."

    Coghlan's advocates, and believe me, I'm one, point to his 2009 when he wrapped up his first big league month hitting .219 over his first 66 AB's; however, this oversimplification neglects that despite only hitting .219, he was walking a ton en route to a .354 OBP in the same frame, and, ultimately, OBP is the key; it isn't 1977 anymore, people understand the key isn't recording hits, it's not making an out.

    As far as the lack of power, Coghlan's not asked to be a power hitter, but when you bat lefty, call Sunlife Stadium home, and had your only road series thus far in cavernous Citi Field, it's hard to not luck into one extra base hit. What is most troubling, though, is that the way teams have attacked Coghlan have all been the same (and this is three now: the Mets, the Dodgers and now the Reds): soft stuff on the outside corner. What's more, it appears that the Marlins coaches are aware of this and yet, Coghlan's been unable to make the adjustment. It's easy for me to sit here and say he needs to cheat on the breaking ball, but every major league hitter knows he needs to honor the fastball. And, given the pendulum like nature of a left-hander's swing, lefties are traditional more vulnerable to an up-and-in fastball, so for Coghlan to exclusively look away would open, potentially, more holes than it would fix.

    To be unequivocally clear: it's only 33 AB's, it's hardly time to panic and, really, the only thing to do now is hope that Coghlan can adjust to the new approaches teams are taking towards him. However, to call this merely a slow start overlooks what makes a player valuable, and what a player can do right that doesn't necessarily translate into the all too often used batting average stat, as, with Coghlan right now, the problems run far deeper than his .152 average.

  • #2
    He was fine through spring, just a bad start. I think he hit a few hard last night right at the infielders and a good battle with Cordero. Hopefully a multi hit game tonight will get the ball rolling.
    Last edited by FishFF; 04-13-2010, 01:36 PM.

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    • #3
      Seems like he has been starting most ABs 1-2 or 0-2 which is not good. Last year he was slapping those outside pitches the other way for hits, but this year so far he is spinning off them and when he makes contact it's usually a foul ball or a weak grounder.

      He has said himself he doesn't feel comfortable with his swing yet this season, so maybe he will work it out soon. However, if he continues looking this aweful I think Fredi needs to think about possibly moving him down in the line-up until he can figure things out. You can't continue to give outs up at the top of the line-up.

      Maybe leadoff with Cam and slide Gaby or the catcher into the 2-hole.

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      • #4
        I'm not going to worry until May.
        Record when He pitches: 3-2

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Jewbility View Post
          I'm not going to worry until May.
          this

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          • #6
            I know I use the shit out of this analogy for early season slumps, but Derek Lee.
            Record when He pitches: 3-2

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            • #7
              I hate seeing 1-9 BB/K, but at the same time, that's a skill he's supposed to have, so I expect it to be fixed.

              I certainly still expect majority of Marlins fans to be dissapointed in him though, but that's because they have high expectations.

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              • #8
                I thought he had a few good at bats last night. Like Jew and Nny said, definitely not even close to worrying at this point.

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                • #9
                  3 hits tonight
                  --------------------
                  Ralphy guarantee
                  Last edited by Ralph; 04-13-2010, 02:47 PM. Reason: Doublepost Merged
                  "You owe it to yourself to find your own unorthodox way of succeeding, or sometimes, just surviving."
                  - Michael Johnson


                  J.T. Realmuto .282/.351/.412

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                  • #10
                    He's getting hammered on the outside of the plate. The AB to end the game yesterday had six straight outside pitches if memory serves.

                    I wouldn't mind moving him down in the order after this series if he still hasn't figured it out.
                    God would be expecting a first pitch breaking ball in the dirt because humans love to disappoint him.
                    - Daft

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                    • #11
                      Also don't forget this is his first time starting a season. Last year he didn't have to deal with early season tweaks because he was already warm after playing in the minors.
                      Record when He pitches: 3-2

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Jewbility View Post
                        Also don't forget this is his first time starting a season. Last year he didn't have to deal with early season tweaks because he was already warm after playing in the minors.
                        I dont quite understand your point. Even if he was playing in the minors, he still had to start the year off playing somewhere. Granted in the minors he wasn't facing the same caliber of pitchers

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                        • #13
                          having to work out early season tweaks in the majors is a bit tougher than the minors I would assume. this is his first time having to experience that, and it could partly explain the slumping.
                          Record when He pitches: 3-2

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