Over/Under: Cameron Maybin 15.5 HRs

[nny]

He'll be hitting 2nd, and the average 2 hole hitter average 690 PA in 150 games.

In his first 3 minor leagues seasons, he averaged 19 HRs over that amount of PA. Park factored, he averaged 20 HRs.

In his short ML career, he'd be on pace to hit 12 HRs over 690 PA.

Last year in NOLA, he was on pace to finish with just 6 HRs over that amount of PA.

Projections-
Bill James: 14.5
CHONE: 14.5
Marcel: 16
Fans: 13
ZiPS: 9
PECOTA: Bob?

I was originally gonna make this 19.5, but I figure 15.5 would be better after his season last year. I'm taking the over.

edit: fun add on, who finishes with more HRs, Gaby or Maybin? I'll go with Maybin.

I didn't make poll public oops

[Bobbob1313]

PECOTA has him at 16.7 HR/690 PA for their weighted mean.

Over his last 104 PA in the last month of the season, he was on a 19.9/650 PA rate, though the standard small sample size issues apply.


For Gaby's weighted mean projection from PECOTA, they are pretty optimistic on HR, going with 24.7/690 PA, which is a little higher than his career minor league rate of 21 for that amount of PA, but which is also slightly less than what he put up last year, so I guess they split the difference since they do put a premium on most recent performance.

I think Gaby's going to hit more HR per PA than Maybin, but Maybin will likely get more PA, so he might hit more total HR. I think Maybin gets to around 15, I have him at 14 for my personal projection, but he could certainly hit a couple more. Have to go with the under though.

[Swifty]

I think he gets 12-15 so I'm going under.

[Nick]

I'd say over but barely. 16 would be my guess.

[FishFF]

under

[Ralph]

I got him bout 16-17 so over and out.

[TealMonster08]

Over...I think if he gets his abs without injury, i think he could peak at about 20or so dingers a season...but THIS year i think he is able to scratch out about 15...and im a glass half-full type of guy, so take 16 bombs to the bank... Serious fun, get in on it.

[Chewford]

I say over. He's in our system so he'll hit a decent amount of homeruns and strikeout out a decent amount of times.

[Namaste]

Over and more than Gaby

Gaby won't see July

[emkayseven]

I wish there was a "way under"

[Bobbob1313]

I wish there was a "way under"

According to your crystal ball projection, you have him ISOing .165 but here you have him hitting "way under" 15 home runs. Hmm.

I get that you think the guy sucks, but I'm not sure that exactly adds up.

[emkayseven]

I know I'm not a professional statistician like you are but does ISO=HR? Last I checked it didn't. Dude is blazing fast, no doubt he gets 2B and 3B. Not to mention the fact that if you cared to look you'd see I had him playing in 80 games, so yeah, I think 7-8 home runs for Maybin this year is a fair statement.

[Bobbob1313]

So you think that "way under" = "On pace for over 15 if he doesn't get sent down for some reason"?

[emkayseven]

was the question what he would do over 700 PA or what he would do this year, Chris? the question as I understood it was "How many home runs will Cameron Maybin hit this year, less than or more than 15.5?" I do not think he plays a full season. Therefore I think he hits 7-8 home runs this year. 7-8 is roughly half of 15, which is considered "way under."

Do I need to spell it out more?

[Bobbob1313]

I think you just wanted to make an exaggerated statement to show just how much less you like him than everyone else.