Michael Stanton and Jason Heyward

[Ramp]

It's going to be awesome to watch these 2 for the next 10+ years.

But if it came down to choosing one on your team, which one do you take right now?

I think I'm going with Jason Heyward right now. Everything I have read about him and watched screams superstar to me.

[Bobbob1313]

Heyward.

Stanton has much bigger holes in his game right now.

What Heyward did to AA as a 19 year old last year is just insane.

I think he's the better right now player and the better future player.

[Ralph]

Heyward made the bravos

[emkayseven]

Heyward definitely

Stanton = right handed Adam Dunn

[Bobbob1313]

Heyward definitely

Stanton = right handed Adam Dunn

Not quite.

Dunn didn't really show the power Stanton has as a younger player, and Stanton actually strikes out a lot more.

But the main difference is that Stanton projects to be a very good defensive player.

[nny]

heywards power is being overrated (I question his ability to break a .200 ISO), but yeah, heyward easily. I'd probably take Montero's bat over Stanton's too.

Which of the three has the best chance of going down as an all time great though? Stanton. So I'm perfectly fine with him

[Bobbob1313]

You mean his ability to top .200 ISO right now, right?


But yeah, the difference between the two is whether you value absolute ceiling over certainty.

Stanton's got a higher ceiling, but a lot more can go wrong with him, and even his ceiling is not so much higher than Heyward's that it's worth taking the riskier guy.

[nny]

down the road

no way he comes close now

I find it very unlikely he'll top 30 HRs. I think he sits in the 20-25 range. Right now he's probably around 15. He can still certainly break .200 with 20-25 (especially 25).
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I would say

now: .270/.345/.420 for what to expect as a rookie
down the road: .290/.375/.470 to .295/.380/.505 (11% BB, 15% K, .320 BABIP, 32 2b, 3 3b, 20-25 HRs)
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I think I'd look at it this way

Heyward = OBP monster, good slg
Stanton = SLG monster, good obp
Montero = not as good in OBP as Heyward, not as good as SLG as Stanton, but plus plus in both. He just doesn't have the defense Heyward or Stanton have, so overall he's under them

[Bobbob1313]

All I know is everytime I watch Heyward, I'm completely smitten.

[Todd]

Dunn K's alot but he has unreal OBP skillz.

[nny]

He also walks 17% of the time

[Fishfan79]

heyward is amazing

[Swifty]

I guess I'm the only one that would take Stanton.

I look at Heyward and I see a hell of a lot of Jeremy Hermida. Tons 'o tools, reasonably limited success (fun fact, he's never hit 12 homers at any level, or 18 in a combining levels minor league season, and he's only got 173 AB's above A ball).

Stanton - that power's not going away. Maybe he ends up being a .240 hitter, but he's still going to belt 30 or 40 if you give him 500 AB's.

So at one extreme you have a toolsy outfielder who's hit for a high minor league average and never walked a bunch, and on the other is a toolsy outfielder who has the most minor league homers since his career became relevant. Based on what they're expected to do, it's a lot easier to look at Stanton and say, yeah, he'll keep doing it. Maybe Heyward turns into a .330 hitter with 30 bombs, but maybe he's the Jeremy Hermida special: .270 and claims that next year is the year he puts it all together.

Stanton, at the very least, is going to give you power. Heyward, brutally honestly, could have a very very very ugly bottom; he doesn't walk a whole lot and if that average dips, watch out. His swing is great, the ball jumps off his bat, but if you didn't attach a name to Heyward's minor league numbers, I don't know if you're dreaming about it at night.

[emkayseven]

I don't think Heyward will ever hit more than 20 homers

[Todd]

Swift contradicted himself in that post about Heywards ability to draw BBs.