Tom Koehler, SP

[Jay]

First time through order: 2.85 R/9, 3.62 FIP, .644 OPS (135.2 ip)
Second time through order: 4.35 R/9, 4.34 FIP, .761 OPS (130.1 ip)
Third time through: 5.44 R/9, 4.80 FIP, .842 OPS (86 IP)

If he's not the one going to the bullpen when Henderson is back, I'm super disappointed. Shit, depending on how he does tonight, I'm not against him going there now and seeing what Nicolino or Urena can do. Probably doesn't really improve rotation, but at least improves bullpen.

(Note: IP estimate based off outs made because B-R only has opponent batter data. And, you can do a rough conversion of R/9 to ERA by multiplying R/9 by 0.97 [The difference in Koehler's career]).

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A pitching being classified different year-to-year actually isn't all that uncommon. I'm not sure which site you're looking at for the data, but as an example, Pitch F/X on Fangraphs has his curve listed as a knucle curve this year, even though it was a normal curve previously.

If that % just moved into a different fastball like a two seamer, that would explain it.

Definitely makes sense he goes to the bullpen and Masset gets DFA but I can see him being the odd man out when Alvarez and Jose are both back.

I was looking at brooksbaseball (thanks to whoever tipped me off to this site). It could all be going into his 4-seamer. Fangraphs does have him throwing a 2 seamer 23.2% of the time versus 1.4% in 2014. The movement is just way off of where it should be. His 4-seamer is moving more than last year and that movement could be accounted for with weighted averages of the sinker and 4 seamer from 2014.

As someone who's used similar machine learning algorithms if their classifications are misclassifying things at rates like this it's a problem as they should be much more consistent than this. It's like they don't utilize the previous years data to inform the algorithm.

[thatnewguy]

Definitely makes sense he goes to the bullpen and Masset gets DFA but I can see him being the odd man out when Alvarez and Jose are both back.

Good god. I would hope he'd be with those numbers. That's not even an aberration or something; he's struggled in the second and third time through the order throughout his entire career.

[Namaste]

For anyone hoping, there is zero chance Koehler is out of the starting rotation before Henderson and Jose come back.

[Jay]

For anyone hoping, there is zero chance Koehler is out of the starting rotation before Henderson and Jose come back.

such a buzzkill. Why do you say that? They sent down Nolasco to get him right like once a season for 3 years.

[nny]

For anyone hoping, there is zero chance Koehler is out of the starting rotation before Henderson and Jose come back.

If Henderson doesn't get setback, I agree. That'd only be, what, one more start after today?

If not, depends if he keeps pitching like this. We don't have anything invested in him - he's making the minimum, and he has a good chance of not being here next year since he'll be arbitration eligible.

[Jay]

I can't see him being in the rotation in two weeks when Alvarez is back (unless he does a really good impression of being an ace today and in his next start). I don't see him having to wait for both to get back.

[Miamarlin21]

Brian Kenny is doing a great piece on failed starters turned relievers. I wonder if Koehler could be the next Miller or Wade Davis.

[Namaste]

He absolutely could be.

He will be the next Wade Davis tomorrow for the first 3 innings.

[Miamarlin21]

Koehler owns the third-lowest batting average against when he throws his curveball at a .175 clip.

[HUGG]

Tom Koehler

13 Fastball .330baa Breaking .172baa Offspeed .278baa
14 Fastball .283baa Breaking .196baa Offspeed .286baa
15 Fastball .288baa Breaking .207baa Offspeed .314baa
16 Fastball .319baa Breaking .205baa Offspeed .310baa

Both Koehler's curve and slider grade out really high. He's throwing the slider almost 7% more often than he ever has before in his career.

Now, I've posted before about the vast difference in Koehler's performance with Mathis catching vs. Realmuto. To revisit:
w/Mathis: 2.40era .185/.265/.294 60ip in 10gs
w/Realmuto: 5.70era .324/.411/.471 60ip in 12gs

And here's a major reason why:

With Realmuto: 52.1% Fastball, 38.9% Breaking, 9.0% Offspeed
With Mathis: 47.1% Fastball, 48.0% Breaking, 4.9% Offspeed


All the talk about Mathis managing the game and knowing his staff, there's some concrete numbers to back it up. I'd love to know if Mathis looks at numbers like this or if he sees it instinctively.

[fish16]

Him in the bullpen would make him incredibly effective and bring more value to the team. I understand we need starters but i think he is so much better in the bullpen and I think he has a chance to be like a guy like Wade Davis.