2010 Spring Training Rotation Thread

[Fritz]

He's no bobbob.

[nny]

Penn was good in AAA himself

[Sashimi]

Volstad, Miller Not Locks for Marlins' Rotation

The Marlins would love for Chris Volstad and Andrew Miller to pitch well enough to justify earning rotation spots. But manager Fredi Gonzalez said Thursday the bottom part of the rotation will be determined on merit and will not be strongly influenced by how much the team has invested in a player.

``You want guys that merit,'' Gonzalez said. ``The other stuff -- guys who have been here longer -- that's out the window. You've got to go with who can help you win. That other stuff, we're past that a little bit.''

Anibal Sanchez likely will be the third starter, joining sure bets Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. Volstad, Miller, Rick VandenHurk, Clay Hensley and Hayden Penn are competing for two spots.

Volstad has struggled, with a 9.82 earned-run average in three games and 18 baserunners allowed in 7 1/3 innings.

But because of his track record before last year's All-Star break -- and the front office's faith in him -- he has a chance to make the rotation if he pitches well in his final three or four spring starts.

``We just want to see the Volstad we know,'' Gonzalez said. ``This guy is a big piece for us.''

Miller (1-1, 7.04 ERA, 17 base runners in 7 2/3 innings) also has faltered. VandenHurk has pitched well in two games and poorly in another.

Penn (1-0, 3.24 ERA) and Hensley (10.1 scoreless innings) have put themselves into the competition. Gonzalez said he's going to try to get Hensley his first start next week, perhaps in a minor-league game.

[FishFF]

so did y'all run mbam outta here?

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

No, I'm here. I'm just tired of people dogging me anytime I say anything so I stopped posting.
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I will post this since it's exactly what I've been saying coming out of Fredi's mouth.

The organization's top draft pick in 2005, Volstad followed up his impressive rookie year in 2008 with a disappointing 2009 season. But the organization isn't about to give up on him yet.

"It's spring training. It's early. It's not that big of a deal," Gonzalez said . "We just want to see the Volstad that we know, that is capable of pitching and I think we're heading in that direction .

"We'll find out in the next three or four starts that he has left and hopefully he is turning in the right direction."

Former Yankees reliever Jose Veras gets shot in Marlins' bullpen

[Metes]

So, going forward, it's clear that the next few starts Volstad gets will be "crunch time" and he needs to perform to solidify a rotation spot. This means he should stop "working on pitches" and try to be effective. If he can't manage to improve his performance from here until the start of the season (even against "half-minor-league competition"), should he still get the benefit of the doubt? Because if he can't buckle down and get guys out at the end of spring training, I can't see how he can be expected to magically do so once the season starts.

[Jay]

So, going forward, it's clear that the next few starts Volstad gets will be "crunch time" and he needs to perform to solidify a rotation spot. This means he should stop "working on pitches" and try to be effective. If he can't manage to improve his performance from here until the start of the season (even against "half-minor-league competition"), should he still get the benefit of the doubt? Because if he can't buckle down and get guys out at the end of spring training, I can't see how he can be expected to magically do so once the season starts.

If other pitchers are still outperforming him, he won't get the benefit of the doubt. If everyone seems to suck then he might get a free pass.

[Beef]

No, I'm here. I'm just tired of people dogging me anytime I say anything so I stopped posting.
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I will post this since it's exactly what I've been saying coming out of Fredi's mouth.



Former Yankees reliever Jose Veras gets shot in Marlins' bullpen

What's coachspeak?

[Metes]

If other pitchers are still outperforming him, he won't get the benefit of the doubt. If everyone seems to suck then he might get a free pass.

I was just saying, sooner or later, the "it's only spring training" excuse loses its cache. You have to perform at some point.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

This is not about the Marlins but it is very relevant to what we have been discussing the last few days about Volstad, Penn and Hensley.

Fantasy-league owners obsessively tracking the Spring Training fortunes of pitchers for guidance on who to draft were born about 40 years too late.

Through the 1960s, Spring Training pitching lines for most were perhaps reliable indicators of health, stuff and the season to follow. Competition for jobs -- more arms vying for fewer spots, in the days of 10-man staffs -- drove everyone to performance.

Now? Forget it. The fortune cookie at your neighborhood Chinese restaurant can offer more precise forecasts about a pitcher's 2010 season than can his results in the Grapefruit or Cactus League.

That point is driven home endlessly, team by team, and by now the evidence is irrefutable. But a splendid example was provided recently in Arizona by two right-handers working concurrently.

In Goodyear, Ben Sheets, a pitcher on a $10 million contract with the A's, allowed 10 runs without retiring a single Cincinnati batter.

At the same time, in Tempe, Ramon Ortiz, on a Minor League deal with the Dodgers, fired four shutout innings at the Angels.

They were throwing baseballs, not crystal balls, so there is no assurance of how their summers will unfold. Yet you must concede that you have a better chance of seeing Sheets in Oakland than Ortiz in Chavez Ravine.

After his imperfect 10, Sheets said, "People have had bad springs before, but this is just taking it to a whole new level," and he should know.

Sheets has had more bad springs than Punxsutawney Phil. In 2004, he had a 7.86 ERA in five starts in Phoenix, then a 2.70 ERA in 34 starts in Milwaukee. From 2004 through 2008, he allowed 47 runs in 51 2/3 Spring Training innings -- and in the following seasons went 53-44 for some weak Brewers teams.

Sheets thus could be the cover boy for this theme -- except, that would have to be a group picture. A very big group.

Some random snapshots:

• In the spring of 2007, the Dodgers' Brad Penny allowed 21 hits in 11 innings, for which he had an ERA of 10.64 -- and he followed that with a 16-4, 3.03 campaign.

• In the spring of 2008, the Indians' Cliff Lee could work only 8 2/3 innings but that was long enough for him to give up 17 hits and eight runs. What followed was a Cy Young Award season (22-3, 2.54) in which Lee did not allow his eighth run until his eighth start.

• The Royals' Zack Greinke can trump that: Last year, he allowed 29 earned runs in eight spring starts (9.21 ERA) -- then allowed four earned runs in his first eight regular-season starts and didn't give up his 29th run until start No. 18.

• The Giants' Tim Lincecum preceded his consecutive National League Cy Young Award seasons with Spring Trainings in which he combined to give up 17 runs and 28 hits in 29 1/3 innings.
So The Freak must be feeling pretty good these days, with his 9.39 ERA through three Cactus League starts.

Both he and his manager are quoting the Spring Training gospel of pitchers.

"Overall, I feel like my mechanics are good. My body is holding up fine," Lincecum said.

Said Bruce Bochy: "I think the great thing right now is that he's getting his arm strength where he wants it."

Obviously, the flip side is just as prevalent:

• Russ Ortiz wowed the Astros last spring by putting up a 3.18 ERA in seven appearances and leading them with 30 strikeouts. He was released four months later with a 3-6 record and 5.57 ERA.

• In 2007, the Orioles' Daniel Cabrera posted a solid Spring Training ERA of 3.15 in five starts -- then went 9-18 with a 5.55 ERA in the regular season.

• In 2005, the Pirates' Kip Wells followed a 3.94 ERA spring with an 8-18 season.

• Darrell May put up a strong 3.60 ERA spring with the Royals in 2004, then a 9-19 record in the regular season.

The many-fold reasons for the discrepancies are owed to the true spirit of Spring Training. While anxious fans are apt to get wrapped up in the results, it is training camp, and pitchers, unlike position players for whom the key is repetition, use it as a laboratory.

This is where they tinker with new pitches that may not crack their in-game repertoires for years. They take mental notes of how hitters react to certain pitches in certain locations -- and in extreme cases will intentionally work away from their own strengths to sandbag hitters for clutch situations later, when the outcome matters.

Only after being hammered for eight runs in two innings of a Spring Training game can a pitcher react as positively as Greinke did to just such an instance last March against the Mariners: "This is probably my second-best start of the (spring), pitching-wise. Stupid pitching maybe, but I was locating it decent."

That sums up what pitchers, managers, pitching coaches and even general managers want to get out of Spring Training. Crunch all the numbers you want, they want style over substance.

"We want to see stuff from the pitchers, their command, how they're attacking hitters," said Pirates manager John Russell.

The Pittsburgh GM, Neal Huntington, touched on one reason why making decisions, or projections, based on exhibition statistics are not a good idea.

"The sample size is just so small down here," Huntington said. "It's not invalid, but it's not far from being invalid, even later in the spring [as the numbers grow]."

Milwaukee manager Ken Macha has a unique take on the Spring Training lumps pitchers have to cope with on their way to regular season success -- also an appropriate take, since his Brewers do train in Arizona: "In order to get to the Promised Land you have to get through the desert."

Concern over failures would appear just as misguided as exultation over triumphs. In either instance, much ado about nothing, tersely summarized by the Cardinals right-hander with the typical 5.59 spring ERA.

"It's Spring Training," said Brad Penny. "You've got to get your work in."

Spring hardly a harbinger for pitchers

This was exactly the point I was trying to make but kept getting everyone saying I was just using homerism. Spring training isn't about the results.

[Beef]

But I think everyone agrees with that. You are just very inconsistent with how you apply things

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

No, whenever I try to make any kind of point about pitching, everyone just writes me off as having a bias towards Volstad and nobody seems to take me seriously. This article is exactly the point that I was trying to make about not putting too much weight on spring training stats for Volstad, Penn and Hensley and everyone just reacted like I was blind to the whole situation.

[Beef]

Hmmm, I wonder if that's true. I do think you are blind to the whole situation because you have been in the past. I gon give you the benefit of the doubt next time

[Mainge]

No, whenever I try to make any kind of point about pitching, everyone just writes me off as having a bias towards Volstad and nobody seems to take me seriously. This article is exactly the point that I was trying to make about not putting too much weight on spring training stats for Volstad, Penn and Hensley and everyone just reacted like I was blind to the whole situation.

Ok and I think everyone agrees. The difference is that Chris spent last year getting rocked and this spring has been much of the same. And it's not like you 've taken this stance the entire time. I seem to remember you saying something about Gaby having a good spring to prove he could play.
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Found it.

The one variable I'm interested in seeing is Gaby's mindset. The first base job was his to lose last spring training and that's exactly what he did. If he can't handle the pressure and chokes again this spring training, I'd rather start Logan's clock sooner.

That is a variable you will have a tough time seeing.

Not if he hits below .200 this spring like he did last year.

So it applies to Volstad but not Gaby?

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Ok and I think everyone agrees. The difference is that Chris spent last year getting rocked and this spring has been much of the same. And it's not like you 've taken this stance the entire time. I seem to remember you saying something about Gaby having a good spring to prove he could play.

Yes, I did say talk about Gaby needing to have a good spring to prove he's ready but hitters are completely different than pitchers. Hitters don't go into the batters box working on stuff. They see ball, they hit ball. They don't work on different types of swings or what kind of swing to use in a certain situation. Pitchers use spring training to work on that. Hitters use swing training to get their timing back.

Let me go back and quote that article again:

While anxious fans are apt to get wrapped up in the results, it is training camp, and pitchers, unlike position players for whom the key is repetition, use it as a laboratory.