Speculation: Fredi Already On The Hot Seat?

[Swifty]

FREDI GONZALEZ, MARLINS: This spring launches Gonzalez's fourth year as manager, and the sense here is he likely will be out if he doesn't reach the postseason for the first time in 2010.

Bear in mind club brass met to ponder making a change after last year despite a second consecutive improved record, to 87-75.

``We thought we were going to be [in the playoffs] last year, but we fell short,'' president David Samson. ``This year, we don't expect to fall short.''

That's setting expectations high and definitively. The cynic might even suggest that's laying the public groundwork for an eventual firing. And ownership at last spending money -- including a rich deal for pitcher Josh Johnson -- only sharpens the onus on Gonzalez to deliver a team still playing in October. Or else.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/fo...y/1488089.html

Interesting theory. However, to me, there's a large leap to be made between Loria wanting Fredi out and Samson saying these things, given that over the last 8 months or so, Samson's pretty much been an outsider at least in terms of organizational philosophy. I don't think Samson is a mouth-piece for the organization anymore, much the way Hank Steinbrenner isn't a mouth piece for the Yankees. That isn't to suggest he does not have a platform, just that much of his posturing has no real weight behind it.

[wanks1212]

Samson's comments aren't dispositive, but the fact that Loria and Beinfest have also made similar comments make me believe that Fredi probably is on the hot seat.

If the Marlins start out something like 15-25 after roughly 40 games and feel like the season is spiraling out of control, I could see them axing Fredi for a veteran type of manager in order to "provide a spark" (ala 2003, when they brought in Jack), especially now that Fredi doesn't have as much time left on his deal and they wouldn't have to eat as much money. But if the team gets through April and May and they're in good shape, Fredi probably survives the season and is re-evaluated next offseason, at which point something like an 82 win season could get him the boot.

[Namaste]

Not a huge Fredi fan but I almost feel for him here.

He's going to have a zero at 1B (more than likely) and he'll always be one Hanley injury away from a 77 win season yet he's expected to make the playoffs.

This isn't the fucking NBA.

[Swifty]

Under different circumstances, I'd agree Daft, but this team has to be as close to a certainty as you can get to finish with a winning record, and a dynamic season from JJ & Nolasco from being the wild-card.

We're almost certainly the second best team in the division, so I don't think it's outlandish to say if he starts out slow he's toast.

[Jewbility]

Our starting rotation is too much of a Charlie to have such concrete expectations.

[Chewford]

Swift sounds optimistic about the team this season. That is strange.

[Jewbility]

AND he said something at least neutral about Nolasco, which is incredibly bizarre. I like this.

[Swifty]

Swift sounds optimistic about the team this season. That is strange.

It's more that I'm very down on the rest of the division.

For everyone that's angry the Marlins didn't strike while the iron is hot, if they were Braves fans, their heads would explode.

The Mets are continually inept and disorganized (hey, we signed Jason Bay and already have David Wright, so let's hit Reyes 3rd until Beltran is back!).

The Phillies are the Phillies, and they're the class of the division.

I really think if you were to put together a top - 5 NL wild-card favorite list, we'd have to be somewhere in there, near the bottom, but still in there. We're asking for a decent amount of things to go right to get us 90 wins, but I am not entirely sure you even need 90 to win the WC this year, I can see 88 taking it, and we're in that range. There are only two 90+ win teams in the NL: Philadelphia and St Louis, after that, I think it would be a tremendous challenge to find a team that has a better 1-5 lineup to go along with our top 2 pitchers, and when you're in that 2nd/3rd tier of teams, that's all you need.

[lou]

Yea, if you want to give Fredi an ultimatum year, how about sign Hank Blalock or Carlos Delgado to mash some righties, sign Washburn on a 1 year contract, and sign Felipe Lopez to a 1 year deal to be the # 1 backup at every position and take over as a starter when someone inevitably gets hurt/sucks. Then just send JJ2 back to Boston, and keep Miller/Bonifacio in AAA. That team has no excuses if you're adding at least 700 positive PA and 180 IP.

Payroll would be under $60 million still.

[wanks1212]

I don't think the front office gives a shit whether they're actually fair to Fredi, just that those outside the organization perceive they're fair to Fredi, partially so that this looks like less of a Mickey Mouse situation when Fredi's inevitably fired. And by issuing the "playoffs or bust" ultimatum as early as possible, the Front Office is giving notice that they expect the playoffs and that, if Fredi's fired, it's because he didn't meet expectations.

It's unfair to tell Fredi "playoffs or bust" with this team, because they have too many question marks for the Front Office to legitimately believe that anything less than the playoffs is a failure (regardless of the payroll, which is a whole other issue, because keeping the payroll under $50 mil and not filling obvious holes while still demanding the playoffs is ri-god-damn-diculous). But this Front Office has never been about fairness.

[Jewbility]

That being said, how many of us would be upset if we didn't make the playoffs, or at least come very close? It's tough to accept a dropoff from any given year, and last season we had 87 wins

[wanks1212]

Provided they suffer no major injuries, I'd be upset with anything less than 85 wins, and would consider a finish under .500 to be justification for firing Fredi. But if they finish with 85 or more wins and still miss the playoffs, well, that sucks, but shit happens and that's still a pretty good season, all things considered.

[Swifty]

Yea, if you want to give Fredi an ultimatum year, how about sign Hank Blalock or Carlos Delgado to mash some righties, sign Washburn on a 1 year contract, and sign Felipe Lopez to a 1 year deal to be the # 1 backup at every position and take over as a starter when someone inevitably gets hurt/sucks. Then just send JJ2 back to Boston, and keep Miller/Bonifacio in AAA. That team has no excuses if you're adding at least 700 positive PA and 180 IP.

Payroll would be under $60 million still.

I still think you don't need to tinker with the lineup all that much. It's all about the #3 starter as far as I'm concerned.

Blalock or Delgado would be wonderful, but they're simply luxuries. Get Smoltz or Washburn and you really have to call us the prohibitive NL WC favorite.
--------------------

That being said, how many of us would be upset if we didn't make the playoffs, or at least come very close? It's tough to accept a dropoff from any given year, and last season we had 87 wins

I renewed for this season based almost 100% on playoff expectations.

That is not to say I would call us a playoff certainty, but as I said earlier we have to be on the short list of teams with a legitimate hope in the National League.

If you were to just list the strongest NL teams my list would be:

Phillies*
Cardinals*
Giants
Dodgers
Marlins
Braves
Diamondbacks

(* = presumed division winner)

That leaves the Marlins fighting with the Dodger and Giants for the WC (winner takes the NL west).

Factor in that 3 of those teams are in the NL west (meaning they beat up on each other) and you can understand where I'm coming from when I think that 88 takes the WC.

[Party]

If we had spent some money on a closer we would have made the postseason.

[Bobbob1313]

So if we had spent money on Kevin Gregg or Brad Lidge we wouldve made the playoffs last season?

A much (much) better way to have improve and spent money would have been to upgrade over Bonifacio earlier than the deadline.

Spending money on relievers is overrated.

Spending money < spending money wisely.