Anibal Sanchez and Pinto Avoid Arbitration

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Anibal signed for $1.25 million plus he can earn another $100,000 for games started.

No word yet on Pinto's

[BigGameFish]

Pinto? Does this mean they've stopped trying to trade him? I hope not

[m26555]

Pinto? Does this mean they've stopped trying to trade him? I hope not

Certainly not.

[lou]

Totally cool with Pinto being the second lefty in the pen. He will be better than Hunter or Tank, who are the only other guys we have. (Ignoring possibility of West/Miller going into bullpen for right now).

And really, of all the relievers we have. If he ever stops walking people, he's the one that turns into a dominant force. I know that's a longshot, but he's not embarrassing despite the whip and with a contract in the $800-900,000 range, let him get 1 more year and see if the walks end or if he just prices himself off the team.

It's not like Beimal, Wuertz, Embree, or even Hendrickson (the top FA options from looking at the list), are guaranteed to do better than him. And they'd each cost about the same.

[m26555]

There is certainly no questioning Pinto's stuff and the fact that he, without a doubt, has runs of dominance. However, I'm afraid he's never going to fix his control issues.

[BigGameFish]

His problem is he ALWAYS walks the first batter. No matter what. Maybe he needs more warm up throws in the bullpen or something (half-joking)

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Pinto got $1,075,000 according to the Miami Herald.

[BigGameFish]

yikes thats a lot

[Swifty]

I am not a fan of keeping Pinto.

I am not going to call him a worthless player or any of that (he's not, even with the emergence of JJ and Nolasco I'd still argue he has the best arm on the entire pitching staff), but the cliche million dollar arm, ten cent head is just too much, especially since we've got a good #1 option in Meyer and Tank / the Red Sox guys can be the 12th and 13th pitcher in the pen and be just fine.

[lou]

Pinto got $1,075,000 according to the Miami Herald.

Wow! That doesn't make any sense compared to Thornton, Wheeler, Guerrier, Crain, Heath Bell, etc. That's an extra $200k that shouldn't be there.
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Three more to go.

C John Baker $415,000
1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000
2B Dan Uggla $7,800,000
3B Jorge Cantu $5,500,000
SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000
LF Chris Coghlan $410,000
CF Cameron Maybin $405,000
RF Cody Ross $4,200,000
B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000
B Wes Helms $950,000
B Ronny Paulino $1,100,000
B Brett Carroll $415,000
B Jorge Jimenez $405,000

SP Josh Johnson $3,750,000
SP Ricky Nolasco $3,800,000
SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000
SP Chris Volstad $415,000
SP Sean West $415,000
RP Leo Nunez $2,000,000
RP Dan Meyer $415,000
RP Brian Sanches $415,000
RP Reynel Pinto $1,075,000
RP Burke Badenhop $415,000
RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000
RP Anibal Sanchez $1,250,000

$45,785,000

[Swifty]

lou, who are you using as comps for Cody?

[lou]

lou, who are you using as comps for Cody?

This is from the big thread.


Cody Ross (4th year salary $2.2)
2008 - 145 G, 461 AB, 59 R, 22 HR, 73 RBI, .260/.316/.488 (.804)
2009 - 104 G, 381 AB, 55 R, 18 HR, 58 RBI, .257/.317/.472 (.789) (as of Aug 7th)
Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)

And I have not determined how many lefties Cody will face the rest of the year to really pad the stats if he wants too. But I think the expectation is reasonable.

Comparables

Alex Rios
2007 - 161 G, 114 R, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 17 SB, .297/.354/.498 (.852) ($2.5)
2008 - 155 G, 91 R, 15 HR, 79 RBI, 32 SB, .291/.337/.461 (.798) ($4.8)

Not perfect, but I want to use Rios because of the defensive factor to nip that in the butt right from the start. Cody obviously is killing it with the glove, so I wanted to at least have a similar offensive performer (OPS/HR wise) on the list. Also, because Rios $2.5 in year 4 is very similar to Ross $2.2

Year 5s
Teahen - $3.5. Had a .715 OPS. Cody’s over this.
Cuddyer - $3.75. Made $1.4 in year 4,significantly lower than Cody. Had .867 OPS year 4. This is a $2.5ish jump, so it shows how much you can go up. This is similar to Atkins, etc, when it comes to performance jumps.
Sizemore - $4.6
Granderson - $5.5
Hawpe - $5.5 (made $3.9 in year 4, significantly higher than Cody)
Braun - $6 (incentives could push up)
Markakis - $6.75 (made $3 in year 4)

I do not think this one is complicated. Cody is having a nice, non-breakout huge Cuddyer like season, so he’s due for a decent raise. He shouldn’t get as much of a raise as Cuddyer, but it should be close because of inflation. The rest of the star outfielders, Cody has no shot at.

Low $3.5. Teahen, and Cody’s ‘lower’ AB in 2008 hurt him. Very doubtful.
Medium $4.2. Gets a $2 million raise. Not quite the $2.5+ raise Atkins/Cuddyer and others have gotten, but enough to make a big dent in his salary.
High - None. He’s not getting in sniffing distance of Sizemore. No upside here.

UPDATED

Cody

Reasonable Expectation Season Line - 155 G, 560 AB, 80 R, 27 HR, 85 RBI, .260/.320/.475 (.795)
Actual Season Line - 151 G, 559 AB, 73 R, 24 HR, 90 RBI, .270/.321/.469 (.790)

Pretty much as expected. This one is easy. I think he breaks $4, just like Nolasco, but really has no case besides this. Cody is a solid starting player. And that’s it. I think a $2 million raise is likely.


I over-evaluated Nolasco pretty significantly at a low 4 though, so I was $300-500k off on that one. All the offseason talk has said, Cody will get over $4, and that's in line with most everything else I found. I'm pretty confident this is a low 4. If I'm wrong, it's going to be lower though for 'playing time' concerns rather than above average production having him break $4.5.

[Swifty]

Yeah, I was going to ask you about that, reasonable expectation there, but if I'm representing Cody, and the way arbitration works, I file a shade under $4 and argue Teahan + inflation, I'd be very scared to file over $4 for Cody because I just don't think there's a great case to be made there, but you're probably right that he should still come in under $4.5.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Not that this matters much but shouldn't West be at $405,000? He got called up a year after Baker and Volstad so he shouldn't be making what they do, should he?

[lou]

I think the Marlins would be thrilled if that's the number that comes back if they exchange.

I kind of like your reasoning, but backwards. If I'm the Marlins, that's what I argue. Use Teahen and inflation, and then lack of "Cuddyer" stats to get a larger raise. Plus, hardly playing in 2007, being a part time player for 2 months in 2008. A nice $3.75 or so.

If I'm Cody, I think the Marlins lose if they go $3.5 (which represents a lot less than the $4.2 I am using) for all sorts of production reasons, and I think they are smart enough to not do that. I think the Marlins will lowball him with around a $3.75ish, and Cody tries to convince the arbiter that he's worth an extra $300-500 and go for a $4.1, $4.15, $4.2, etc number. That's a much smaller percentage and quantity raise than Cuddyer, kind of conforms with Alex Rios decline in production (Cody basically matched him in year 4 minus SB), and is an "under $2 million" raise.

I think I agree with you maybe I'm overestimating it, but if they turn in numbers say, Marlins $3.6 and Cody $4.1. Cody is going to win that. If it's 3.8 to 4.2, that'll be interesting.

And of course, those dummies should just say "fine $4" and be done with it, but who knows if they'll ever consistently negotiate once numbers are drawn. Maybe the slap on the wrist from MLB and losing big on Uggla/Cabrera makes them be less foolish about saving that extra $100,000 that prevents a deal from getting done in pre-arbitration negotiations.
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Not that this matters much but shouldn't West be at $405,000? He got called up a year after Baker and Volstad so he shouldn't be making what they do, should he?

Those numbers are all placeholders and just representing varying club controlled amounts to give a general idea of where salary is. Until the official official figure is in, you can +/- $5,000 off all the CC amounts and who knows who gets what. Marlins have a very sketchy history of tendering significant raises to players who have excelled in young years. The only one I'll be interested in seeing this offseason is Coghlan. Do they just raise him to say $450,000 as a thank you for being awesome? (SF raised Lincecum to $650,000 in year 3 for winning the Cy Young when they could have tendered him the minimum. The Marlins gave Cabrera $470,000 for finishing 5th in MVP voting, receiving the silver slugger, and making two straight all star games. ).

Also, Andrew Miller is making $1,970,000 but I just rounded that to $2 early in the offseason forecasts for simplicity. I'll be changing them all over when the tender amounts come out, but the main point is. Nothing there is drastically effecting the bottom line besides those big arbitration cases as you can see with Swift and I talking, can easily swing $500,00 here and there.