Grade Our Off-season

[Beef]

If a kid in my class always gets between a 70 and 73 in class and gets a C- for it and then he gets one 82, I am not going to give him an A for it. I will give him his B-. I will be super-glad for him though because he definitely improved and did better than he and everyone else expected, but he could still improve from his class average grade he just got

[Bobbob1313]

I mean, realistically, what would it take to make the playoffs in your opinion?

We can't, realistically improve, given the current market and our realistic payroll limitations, at these positions, I think:

C
SS
1B/3B (Wherever Cantu plays)
2B
LF (assuming Coghlan plays there since Uggla is staying)
RF

I mean, yeah. Raise payroll to 50 million, go get Delgado and hope he gives you an .875 OPS against RHP and platoon him with Gaby and you've shored up you're offense pretty nice.

But as far as guys who will play the field, I can't see anyone else out there who would be worth it. Maybe you can find a more proven guy in center than Maybin, but at this point you've kind of got to stick him there for a whole season, sink or swim.

Do we want to go get a reliever? I think that's dumb, personally.

A veteran starter? Sure, but who is out there? Smoltz? Sure, but he's not going to give you a ton of innings at this point, so you're still going to have to rely on Miller, Volstad, West, and Anibal to get to you probably 500 innings.

I don't see a lot of guys available as FAs that make us a playoff team.

I guess you could go into the season with this:

C Baker/Paulino
1B Delgado/Gaby
2B Uggla
SS Hanley
3B Cantu
LF Coghlan
CF Maybin
RF Cody

and hope the starters put it somewhat together so you can mash a little bit. I don't see a starting pitcher who makes this a definite playoff team.

[Swifty]

Realistically, I think we could, you know, realistically, find someone who would, realistically take a one year deal (since at this time of year, realistically, that's the best they could realistically hope for).

Maybe you defer the hell out of the payments, but adding stability at one of these three positions makes us a playoff threat:

1B
SP
CL

And adding stability at 2/3 makes us the wild-card favorite provided Uggla stays. I'm not bemoaning that we weren't players on Holliday or Bay or anything stupid like that, but at this point, if I'm John Smoltz or Carlos Delgado, I realize I'm probably not going to get everything on my terms, and if I'm the Marlins, I try to capitalize on that, realistically.

[Bobbob1313]

I said realistically twice, but I see what you did there.

I think adding stability at closer is silly.

Adding stability at SP would be nice, but there's not really anyone out there that is going to add stability. Is our SP really more stable because we got 43 year old John Smoltz who has thrown 106 innings in two seasons? Is 110 innings of 4 ERA from John Smoltz more stable than 110 innings of 4 ERA from Anibal just because he is John Smoltz?

Is this rotation

JJ
Nolasco
Smoltz
Volstad
West/Miller/Anibal/RVH

and

JJ
Nolasco
Volstad
Anibal
West/Miller/RVH

really the difference between making the playoffs and staying at home?

Yeah, it gives you one more option, but it's not an option that is at all even close to guaranteed to outperform your current options.

So yeah, like I said, go get Delgado on a one year contract and hope that he can play 4 times a week against RHP without dying. I've read some stuff saying he doesn't look like he can play the field right now, but hey why not try it?

I like adding a LHB at 1B to platoon with Gaby like Delgado or Mike Jacobs. I like that a lot. But I don't see any starters that really make this a playoff team.

And there's no relievers worth going after besides the usual spring training invite guys.

I would rather get a Doug Davis than Smoltz, but I have no idea how much he's going to make.

[nny]

Adding stability at SP would be nice, but there's not really anyone out there that is going to add stability. Is our SP really more stable because we got 43 year old John Smoltz who has thrown 106 innings in two seasons? Is 110 innings of 4 ERA from John Smoltz more stable than 110 innings of 4 ERA from Anibal just because he is John Smoltz?

Because you're also asking for Anibal to put up a 4 ERA. Are you actually confident that Anibal will do that? There's only two pitchers I have confidence in on this staff, JJ and Nolasco. Anibal again finished with a terrible BB/9|BB/K and doesn't do other things well enough to make up for it, Andrew again finished with a terrible BB/9|BB/K and doesn't do other things well enough to make up for it, Chris Volstad again finished with a bad BB/K, Sean West is still young and inexperienced.

And the fact I think Smoltz will be back to the #1 he was previously, since his peripherals are still rock-fucking-solid.

So yes, I think Smoltz makes a huge huge difference in our playoff chances. You're asking for 3 guys in a group of 5 who are expected to put up some 4.5 era to improve. You don't see the problem with that?
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but at this point, if I'm John Smoltz, I realize I'm probably not going to get everything on my terms, and if I'm the Marlins, I try to capitalize on that, realistically.

Could have just been posturing but there was also the fact that Smoltz was thinking of coming here because he'd like to play for Fredi.

He also could fit the BP need, which is what we wanted for him last year IIRC. I wouldn't want to pay him to be a BP arm though.

[Bobbob1313]

I see the problem, but I'd rather get a guy who is going to eat more innings.

[nny]

Signing a David Bush/John Garland/Whatever is still give us a 4.5 ERA, just one name gives us that instead of 3.

[kylekash]

I gave it a "C" because to me it is an average off-season and here is why:

- Thus far our biggest off-season move was to resign JJ. Whether we signed him or not he was going to be on the team in 2010, so while I am super excited and think it is a great move for beyond 2010 it has nothing to do with 2010 so I can't count it with as much weight.

- I also can't give them credit for keeping Uggla, because they didn't really want to. It helps the team to have him in the line-up, but let's face it he is here by default more than anything else.

- The off-season isn't over yet but they haven't addresses the bullpen or a veteran lefty off the bench.

- Overall we really haven't done much. We got a couple of prospects no-one knows much about and didn't take care of the #1 priority which was to get some decent value for Uggla.

With that being said the off-season isn't over yet... but I have not been impressed thus far. However, I also didn't really expect them to go out and make a splash and that is why they get a "C" or average grade from me.

[Fish and Chips]

I like the idea of signing Delgado, but just to throw another name into the mix, how about blalock? Career OPS of .846, a bit of a product of texas' stadium but still as a .714 away hitter.

His glove was a + with a 2.6 UZR, in a small sample size, 66games.

i would be happy with either, but the fact that carlos is a question mark, coming off a injury, with durability issues, blalock might be a better choice.

[Omar]

Why would Delgado ever come to play for this ownership? The same ownership that signed him to a multi-year deal and unloaded him after one season?

[Swifty]

I said realistically twice, but I see what you did there.

I think adding stability at closer is silly.

Adding stability at SP would be nice, but there's not really anyone out there that is going to add stability. Is our SP really more stable because we got 43 year old John Smoltz who has thrown 106 innings in two seasons? Is 110 innings of 4 ERA from John Smoltz more stable than 110 innings of 4 ERA from Anibal just because he is John Smoltz?

Is this rotation

JJ
Nolasco
Smoltz
Volstad
West/Miller/Anibal/RVH

and

JJ
Nolasco
Volstad
Anibal
West/Miller/RVH

really the difference between making the playoffs and staying at home?

Yeah, it gives you one more option, but it's not an option that is at all even close to guaranteed to outperform your current options.

So yeah, like I said, go get Delgado on a one year contract and hope that he can play 4 times a week against RHP without dying. I've read some stuff saying he doesn't look like he can play the field right now, but hey why not try it?

I like adding a LHB at 1B to platoon with Gaby like Delgado or Mike Jacobs. I like that a lot. But I don't see any starters that really make this a playoff team.

And there's no relievers worth going after besides the usual spring training invite guys.

I would rather get a Doug Davis than Smoltz, but I have no idea how much he's going to make.

It's not about Anibal, it's about Volstad/Miller/West.

The way I see it, our top 2 is set (duh) and beyond that, Anibal's spot is not in doubt. He might not be the third best pitcher on our staff in terms of projectability anymore (yeah, I'm pretty sure I just invented a word there) but in terms of stability, give me Anibal, I know what I'm getting from him, he's the ideal NL 4th starter.

I am petrified at the prospect of 50-something combined starts from 2/3 of Volstad/Miller/West. If you want to take the 80ish win ceiling off this team and start talking about 90 NL wins (which we can with this offense and JJ/Nolasco) you need to find a way to make 1 of the aforementioned 3 your 5th starter and send the other 2 to AAA to get their shit figured out and their careers back on track.

If the lightbulb went off in their heads this offseason and they finally "get it" then yeah, awesome, we're on a fucking roll, but instead of rolling into a season with the best case scenario playing out in your head, look at where you think it's a pretty strong chance you get let down.

If the Marlins scrape together $5 million more in 2010 dollars and find a guy who's OK with no interest deferments (be it Delgado or Smoltz, or, truthfully at $2.5 mil to each with $2.5 mil deferred to each over the next 3 seasons + incentives you could have both), we're talking a 90 win team. Shouldn't you try to find a way to make that happen?
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Why would Delgado ever come to play for this ownership? The same ownership that signed him to a multi-year deal and unloaded him after one season?

Because even Omar "I dream of Carlos" Minaya isn't beating down his door.

If he wants to play, and go for 500 career homers (which he's a great season or 2 good seasons away from getting), he's got to find a job.

[m26555]

I also can't give them credit for keeping Uggla, because they didn't really want to. It helps the team to have him in the line-up, but let's face it he is here by default more than anything else.

- Overall we really haven't done much. We got a couple of prospects no-one knows much about and didn't take care of the #1 priority which was to get some decent value for Uggla.

I don't think you can really say that, because neither you or me has any idea what was going through the FO's mind during this process. My opinion right from the beginning was that we would shop Uggla around to see if we could get a heist in a deal for him, and that if we didn't get exactly what we wanted, we would hold on to him, and it looks like that was what happened. I'm not saying my opinion is 100% correct, but I think that if the FO "didn't want" to keep Uggla, he would be gone already.

Also, our #1 priority was to lock up Johnson; not trade Uggla.

[Big Z]

I gave us a B for signing up Johnson long term, but doing nothing else. Pinto is still in the team, and i'm glad we still have Uggla.

On another note, I don't see Delgado making a comeback to Miami, I could've sworn he talked crap about the Marlins when he left.

[Chewford]

C, we are not better than when we entered the offseason, we aren't really worse off either so I give them fellers a neutral grade.

[lou]

Concerning adding more since everyone seems to want 2-3 more guys:

If we look at 1B/DH around the majors...

Tor - Glut of OF to play at DH, Overbay, and Brett Wallace (key piece of Halladay trade who they are moving to 1B)
Bos - Youk, Ortiz, and significant 1B prospects (Lars) in minors
Rays - Pena, Burrell, Aybar, and limited payroll
O's - DH is locked down with Luke and whatever OF isn't playing, and they desperately need a 1B
Yanks - Teix, loaded team of bats

Clev - LaPorta and Hafner
KC - Butler, could use a DH upgrade
Det - Cabrera, could use another bat. But probably an outfielder
Twins - Morneau, Kubel, and would need help at 3B more
White Sox - Konerko, A. Jones, no other room

Angels - Morales, Matsui
A's - Barton who they kind of have to play, and Chavez/Fox/Cust for DH. They need MI
M's - Kotchman, Griffey, and they like Carp
Rangers - Davis, Vlad, and D. Murphy

Braves - Glaus
Marlins - G. Sanchez/Cantu depending on Jimenez
Phillies - Howard
Nationals - Dunn
Mets - Nothing. They will sign a 1B

Astros - Berkman
Cubs - Lee
Cards - Pujols
Reds - Votto
Brews - Prince
Pirates - Jones/Clement

Giants - Huff
Dodgers - Loney
Rocks - Helton
Dbacks - LaRoche
Padres - Adrian

Alright so what do we have above?

Orioles and Mets 100% will be signing a 1B. Those are the only two surefire starting spots left. Kansas City needs another bat, but will be more of a sometimes starting. If you go to the Rays, you have to fight off guys like Aybar, Burrel, Kapler, maybe Jennings for playing time. If you go to the Indians, you have to beat out young guys so that's unlikely as they rebuild. The A's are doubtful. The Marlins have the most inexperience so a vet could win that job rather easily.

Point is, these are the FA left:

Blalock
Branyan
Delgado
Garko
Giambi
Jacobs
Thome
Tracy

Some of them don't work because they can't play defense (Thome), and assuming the best one goes to the Mets (Branyan) and they pay him, that leaves the O's (non contender), KC (non contender), and the Marlins (contender), the three teams with the most playing time to give.

Maybe you go in and snipe Delgado if you're willing to increase payroll. Maybe he just wants to play, and the Marlins could rest him against lefties if he's slowing down. Same thing with Jacobs, who despite all the criticism has hit RHP pretty hard his career. Blalock is also a lefty and has hit RHP hard historically. Garko is right handed, and is more of a lefty specialist so that kind of guy would realistically be looking at a Tampa/back to Clev, etc, to platoon with their other options.

So I mean, you can get Delgado, Jacobs, or Blalock pretty damn cheap. LaRoche signed a sub $5 million deal for 1 year. He has to be worth more than all of them. Maybe Delgado wants more because he's older, but Huff just got $3 million too. Maybe you can get CD for that. Blalock and Jacobs would have to be even lower. Which really doesn't effect the bottom line to much.

Just saying. Not sure it's the best idea if we have more money to spend (pitching) because I think Gaby should be alright, especially helping him out with a lefty with Jimenez and Morrison in a few months. But the Marlins have playing time to give and if they are 'committed' to spending a bit more, could grab a decent lefty bat to get 400 PA at 1B minimum for pretty damn cheap.

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As for some SP left, Smoltz is going to cost a ton. Myers got $5 and a lot of incentives, Penny $7. Smoltz will probably get more than that if he decides to come back. Then the next tier, Pinero, Sheets, or Bedard, or Washburn after their years/pedigree. They each get a good amount. Next tier, Garland is kind of the only in between name, and he'll probably make a bit to much still. And probably on 2 years. Then you look at everything else which can easily be signed. Doug Davis, Eric Milton, Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Redding, and they have huge 1.50+ whips, which is what we can literally expect out of Anibal. So who cares about them, no improvement. Where's the SP you guys want?

There is 1 name out there I see that could work: Pedro Martinez. Not the first time that has been mentioned, but he just wants the opportunity to still play and he'd probably take $3 million and some incentives if he's pitching 180+ innings.

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So basically, if we get like Jacobs/Blalock and Pedro, instead of having one of G. Sanchez/Jimenez and Anibal is in the bullpen rather rotation, we're all a lot happier?