Top of the Line-up: Maybin, CC and Ugh....Boner

[Bobbob1313]

If Maybin puts up a .350 OBP would you really have a problem with him leading off and moving Coghlan down one?

I just don't see how it's that ridiculous to prefer a speed guy at the top.

Obviously he needs to be able to do other things, hence why I say Maybin and not Boner, but I think having speed is a good thing at the top of the order, and I think we as a board tend to underrate baserunning abilities.

My math was, admittedly, off when I said it's an out per season difference (that's the difference between moving Coghlan down one.)

Still, the difference between Maybin's base running and Coghlan's OBP may be enough to make up the difference. This is all, of course, working under the rather large assumption that Maybin could put up a .350 OBP.

But if he can, I would personally prefer him batting lead off and moving Coghlan down one. So "lolzolzol speed killz" whatever, I like a guy who can move around the bases in front of our big bats. I'm not saying SPEED ABOVE ALL ELSE, and I don't think Beinfest is. But if we're talking "prototypical", I might be down for sacrificing a little On base ability for more speed.

[FishFanInPA]

I'm disappointed no mention of Emilio.

[AdamRavs]

If Maybin puts up a .350 OBP would you really have a problem with him leading off and moving Coghlan down one?

I just don't see how it's that ridiculous to prefer a speed guy at the top.

Obviously he needs to be able to do other things, hence why I say Maybin and not Boner, but I think having speed is a good thing at the top of the order, and I think we as a board tend to underrate baserunning abilities.

My math was, admittedly, off when I said it's an out per season difference (that's the difference between moving Coghlan down one.)

Still, the difference between Maybin's base running and Coghlan's OBP may be enough to make up the difference. This is all, of course, working under the rather large assumption that Maybin could put up a .350 OBP.

But if he can, I would personally prefer him batting lead off and moving Coghlan down one. So "lolzolzol speed killz" whatever, I like a guy who can move around the bases in front of our big bats. I'm not saying SPEED ABOVE ALL ELSE, and I don't think Beinfest is. But if we're talking "prototypical", I might be down for sacrificing a little On base ability for more speed.

If Maybin does get on base at that clip.. Why not hit him 2nd? Hitting in front of Hanley he will see a good bit of fastballs and also if cogs gets on can always play small ball with cam too.

[nny]

I hate the "fastball" argument. Reminds me of people make that argument at the start of the season for swapping Emilio and Maybin, even though Emilio was getting the same % of fastball's leading off that Maybin was in the 8 hole.

posted this before at the other place:

Pro's of #1 Maybin, #2 Coghlan:

-It puts the faster man first. Maybin has 20-30+ SB in him while Coghlan is 10-20+. Not only that, but Maybin is a better base runner outside of stolen bases. For instance, this season Coghlan was worth 1.44932 runs thanks to his base running in the 210 times he was on base.

Maybin, his his career, has been worth 2.7297 runs in only 87 times on base. Meaning that over the same amount as Coghlan, he'd be worth 6.6 runs. Then tack on SB and that becomes even more.

-Coghlan is the better handness for the line up position. He gets a hole on the right side from Maybin being on first, he blocks the catcher if maybin tries to steal, so on, so forth. It also splits up our righty/lefty at the top of the line up, giving us rhb/lhb/rhb 1-2-3 with Hanley.

-Coghlan has better bat control for the line up position. Maybin is going to strike out more, but if nobody is on base, it's no different from a normal out. But contact is more important when somebody is on base, so you want the person with better contact hitting #2.

-Coghlan hits less ground balls than Maybin does. This lowers the chance of a double play. Though, you could argue that the difference isn't much, and that Maybin's speed will allow him to beat out more potential double plays, making it basically break even and not being a factor.

-If you believe Maybin is the better hitter, it gives him more PA over a season (albeit only about 20)

Pros of #1 Coghlan, #2 Maybin:

-Coghlan will probably have the higher OBP going forward. While it shouldn't be this high, as Coghlan isn't going to continue hitting for an average over .320, it should still sit around the .370 range. In order for Maybin to get that high, he'd have to hit around .300. Maybin will probably be more around .350.

-Maybin has more power. Coghlan has a minor league ISO of .153. Maybin's is .171. Ontop of which, Maybin younger than Coghlan, meaning you have more room to project more power in Maybin. Maybin also showed more power in the majors this season than CC did, posting a .159 ISO compared to Coghlan's .139 ISO.

-If you believe CC is the better hitter, it gives him more PA over a season (albeit only about 20)

Anything I miss?

I'd probably go Maybin #1, CC #2 but I don't think it'll make much of a difference at all

[Bobbob1313]

I just don't see why preferring speed in the lead off spot is so dumb.

I mean, I used to take a more hardline stance on this one, that it shouldn't matter at all and that your highest OBP guys should go first, but frankly, when you're talking about the difference between a .350 guy and a .370 guy being like 12 outs in a season, I'd rather have the guy who is a better baserunner at the top.

This doesn't mean you live with Boner putting up a .300 in the leadoff just because he's fast. I think at minimum you should be a .350 in the lead off. But if I have two guys like Maybin and Coghlan and they become what they project to be (Maybin: .270/.350/.425 seems reasonable; Coghlan: .290/.370/.420 seems reasonable as well) I'll take the guy who can run in front of my contact guys 2-4.

[lou]

I'm pretty much with NNY. I'd bat them Maybin-Coghlan. I like the idea of R/L/R the top and the natural hole on the right side for Tommy to say "productive outs" all year long. Plus I think Coghlan would take care of "better pitches" for whatever intangible argument we want to make with that as the substantially better contact hitter.

Now if the OBP difference is 40-50 point, yea sure throw CC one and Maybin down somewhere. But I can't see it being that much of a difference. If it's .340 vs .370, it's not a big deal putting Maybin 1 and CC 2.

[Swifty]

The problem I had with the quote, and I hope you're just playing dumb and not really that dumb, is that Beinfest makes it sound like he's begrudgingly letting Coghlan bat leadoff. Kind of like the kid that wanted the Red Mega-Mega Man and got the green one and looks at it and goes "yeah, it's alright" and then puts it in the corner.

We should just trade Coghlan now. We're not going to let him move to the infield, and he's a hot start from Bonifuckface or Maybin (or God forbid both) away from being slotted way down. Send him to a team that gets OBP and is salivating over Cano/Pedroia 2.0 and isn't endlessly searching for Juan Pierre.

[Party]

Come on Swift.

[Swifty]

I'm not saying that I want to trade him, or that it's necessarily a good idea, but if he's going to be the left-fielder, not the second baseman. If he's going to have Bonifuckface as the leadoff hitter in waiting, and it already looks like we're looking for a reason to not bat him at the top of the order, what's the goddam point?

Let's trade him for 2 really fast slap hitting guys (and we can use the term 'hitting' loosely) and a fat guy with a big fastball. Beinfest can beat off to that return for at least 2 years and a few can find a way to spin it as a testament to his genius yet again.

[lou]

I'm not saying that I want to trade him, or that it's necessarily a good idea, but if he's going to be the left-fielder, not the second baseman. If he's going to have Bonifuckface as the leadoff hitter in waiting, and it already looks like we're looking for a reason to not bat him at the top of the order, what's the goddam point?

I'm actually with you here. Trade him to a team that values him as a 2B and get another pitcher. I mean, it's idiotic to do that and keep Bonifacio, but if the assumption is they will never move him to 2B, now is as good a time as any for them to trade him and get something else. It's pointless to keep him in LF short or longterm.

I still feel Coghlan gets to 2B soon though.

[Todd]

To bobbob's stance that Beinfest doesnt care about speed at the top, one only has to look at Bonifacio. It took basically the national media and the entire fanbase shitting all over it and the acquisition of Nick Johnson to get Bonifacio out of the 1 or 2 hole.

[MiamiHomer]

You're a bit off there Todd.

[Todd]

How so?

[Bobbob1313]

It's just not a Swift post without an almost comical analogy that doesn't quite work.

Other than that, I disagree with your reading of the "quote" (it's not a quote, of course. We have no idea what Beinfest actually said.) Of course, you're going to take it that way and other people who don't hate everything about the Marlins are going to take it a different way.

I would agree with what he's saying. He's not necessarily the slam dunk best option to lead off. I don't think it's crazy to say that at all.

I'll bet anything that Coghlan doesn't bat below Boner at any point in the season unless there's some kind of massive onslaught of injuries (in which case all bets are off, because we have very little depth.)

[MiamiHomer]

How so?

I think Bobbob was defending why Beinfest prefers speed at the top of the line up. Correct me if I'm wrong though.