Beinfest Regime: Brilliance or Smoke and Mirrors?

[Ramp]

Yea, pretty much that

[Namaste]

I believe the Marlins ownership/FO are not as talented as bobbob paints them nor are they quite as inept as Ramp is implying. They're somewhere in the middle.

[lou]

What I think Ramp is trying to get at, and this has been my stance for a long time, is that if you start with talent worth X (and make no mistake, Beinfest inherited an exceptionally talented team) and routinely turn that talent over for 40 cents on every talent "dollar" eventually that system is going to destroy you. Think of it like being a trust officer. You're overseeing a $5 million trust account and through mismanagement, you have $1 million. At a quick glance, having a million dollar account looks like you're doing a good job, but when you look at how you got to that million dollars the numbers don't really work.

We got jack shit for all-star players, we got absolutely raped on a trade for hall of fame talent, and we've only really made only one "win" trade out of the entire 2002-05 core (Pierre) and one "you sure as fuck better get something that good back" trade (Beckett).

That's my problem with these guys. They received way too much credit for winning with a core they didn't put together and every year that they've had the chance to make it "their" team they find their "guy" (Abercrombie, Julio, Bonifacio) and really hold the team back, yet crutch themselves up on the low-payroll complaint.

Now, that's not to say I expect enormous success with a payroll so laughably miniscule, but rather it's very hard to take pity on someone when a majority of their shortcomings are egregiously self-inflicted and a byproduct of their own misguided over confidence.

This is ridiculous. This team just won 87 games and Beinfest has been GM for 7 years. There is no residual effect from our assets SEVEN PLUS years ago still pushing Beinfest along.

So were they just lucky with Uggla (Rule5), Baker (minor league trade for Stokes), Ross (Waiver Claim), Cantu (MILB Free agent), (stopping right there, that's the front office acquiring 4 legitimate starting players for nothing. this is not an imprint), Amezaga (MILB FA), Meyer (waiver claim), Sanches (MILB FA), Lindstrom (minor league trade for Vargas), and Paulino (minor league for Correa). And let's not even include all the more minor pieces like Justin Miller, Lee Gardner, etc, who have worked out in their brief time here. There is a constant, CONSTANT, influx of these players via Beinfest? No credit at all? None of this is from Beckett, Delgado, Cabrera, and Pierre, which have been the biggest 4 trades still impacting this team, currently netting 8 guys to my estimation - Hanley, Anibal, Nunez (via Jacobs), Maybin, A. Miller, Badenhop, Nolasco, and Pinto.

So then what else is on the team. We've drafted Johnson, Coghlan, Volstad, and West. Got RVH on international. That looks like 550-600 innings in 2010 and 2009's ROY to me. With Stanton, Morrison, Dominguez, Cousins, Petersen, and a fuck load of projectable RP arms after that in AA/AAA, and a huge collection of high school arms and Skipworth in A ball.

Saying they didn't put this team together and this is not their team, is retarded. Yea, they didn't draft the centerpiece in Hanley. So what? Nearly everything around him, including at least half the rotation, they have drafted or brought in on these "whatever" moves. Yea, they do absolutely boneheaded things like Reggie and Boner, have Sinkbiel and Marceaux not work out, but christ. They make a huge imprint here even if they end up blowing CF for a few years, and then shift that insanity to 3B the next year and try boner out (which they did fix with Nick Johnson to their credit).

We're not diminishing "the trust" account at all. We arguably have the most valuable player in all of baseball at SS, we have 6 starters under 26 years old who are all highly regarded in some respect, analysts were saying if we traded JJ we'd get more than a Halladay trade, we are about to trade one of the top 5-7 2B in baseball and replace him with the ROY we drafted, and one of the best farms in baseball that has been predominately self drafted. Of our top 15 prospects, only two (Ceda, Smolinski) are from out of the organization.

There is only so much you can say. Have there been mistakes? Yes. I've disagreed on many of them as much as you. But I mean jesus christ. Do they get nothing for Uggla, Ross, Cantu, Baker, Lindstrom, etc, and how about even identifying Nolasco and Pinto, who both really worked out big time, etc?

These guys do more good than bad even if they aren't "perfect." I can't ask for anything more. They can't all be perfectly methodical in all aspects like Theo and Beane.
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Yea proofreading this, how about Gregg for Resop? That's not making an imprint? How about Ceda if he's awesome in 2 years? Doesn't count?

[Ramp]

lolceda..... he's gonna be a sumo wrestler before he's an 8th inning guy

/hasnothingtoadd

[lou]

Do we want to be the Mariners?

Jack Wilson ss
2 years/$10M (2010-11)
signed extension with Seattle 11/13/09, replacing option year of previous contract
10:$5M, 11:$5M
performance bonuses: $50,000 for 450 PAs, $0.1M each for 500, 550 PAs

VETERAN PRESENCE

[Ramp]

calm down, no one wants that

[lou]

calm down, no one wants that

But that's what happens when you give dummies payroll.

The point is, even if we had money would we do that? No. At least they strike out on Reggie and Bonifacio, and not have Jack Wilson sucking the lifeforce out of your soul for 2 years.

[Ramp]

you like fishsticks

[wanks1212]

I believe the Marlins ownership/FO are not as talented as bobbob paints them nor are they quite as inept as Ramp is implying. They're somewhere in the middle.

This would essentially be my position too. They have many, many faults, most notably their love for the Pierre/Boner slap-hitting types, their refusal to buy out arbitration years, and however they evaluate a player's defense (because that clearly isn't working, despite how much they like to say they emphasize defense). But they haven't run this team into the ground or anything, despite the payroll restrictions put on them by ownership. They could be much better, but they could also be much, much worse.

[lou]

This would essentially be my position too. They have many, many faults, most notably their love for the Pierre/Boner slap-hitting types, their refusal to buy out arbitration years, and however they evaluate a player's defense (because that clearly isn't working, despite how much they like to say they emphasize defense). But they haven't run this team into the ground or anything, despite the payroll restrictions put on them by ownership. They could be much better, but they could also be much, much worse.

I can agree with this.

Also, if we're ignoring trades from stuff they inherited (meaning no Hanley and Anibal for Beckett, No Maybin and Miller for Cabrera, nothing from D. Lee, Castillo, LoDuca, Gregg, Willingham because drafted before and nothing in that trade, etc), this is what they are fielding in 2010 if they in a vacuum kept everybody homegrown.

2010 All Beinfest Acquisition Team 2002-2009

C - Baker
1B - G. Sanchez
2B - Uggla
SS - Andino
3B - Cantu
LF - Coghlan
CF - Ross
RF - Hermida
Bench - Paulino, Amezaga, Carroll, J. Miller, Helms

SP - Johnson, Olsen, Volstad, West, Thompson
RP - Lindstrom, Meyer, Sanches, Wood, Leroux, Tucker, Vanden Hurk

If you're wondering what's bolded, all 19 of those guys will see time with the Marlins in 2010 at some point. That's pretty "homegrown and acquired" to me. That's enough to leave an "imprint" even if you have a half dozen or so other major contributors - Hanley, Nolasco, Maybin, A. Miller, Anibal, Nunez, and Badenhop brought in from "the other guys work." I think it's very important to note, no one has been a major league FA signing. That's incredibly impressive fielding a pretty legit MLB team over the course of 7 years through draft, waivers, rule 5, milb contracts, and minor trades. No trades from pieces you were gifted. No free agent signings. No imprint.

The above > Bitching endlessly about Abercrombie and Bonifacio and Borchard and Julio and Oliver and whoever, when they've figured other shit out on the cheap for years.

[Swifty]

lou, here's the thing about all of your 'merits' they haven't won a damn thing. We've made the playoffs once under Beinfest, when he was labeled a genius, with a team that Dave Dombrowski put together.

More than that, as you've long acknowledged, we operate in a system where you have to win with a team that's in years 1-5 of their development, we can't afford, generally, to go to the 6th year with most of the guys nor can we afford to play the free agent game.

Now, taking a step back from that, here are the 1-5 guys on the team that Beinfest has drafted or signed internationally that figure to be on the 2010 team in a role of consequence:

Josh Johnson
Chris Coghlan
Chris Volstad
Rick VandenHurk
Gaby Sanchez (I guess)

So, as you can see, when you play a game by certain rules (here, control years 1-5), you have to understand those rules and use them, as far is as reasonably possible, to your advantage....we don't do that; we're still too entirely dependent on other teams for our talent. Just as many people say the Yankees can't continue to win building a team via free-agency, we can't reasonably expect to keep getting talent (and I use the term 'talent' loosely) for players we're sending packing.

And, ultimately, the problem with this whole scenario isn't the payroll; they payroll is a chicken-egg situation. We can't afford JJ or Miggy or Stanton eventually because of the payroll, but we could have if we just bought them out. We waited and waited and waited. Sure, to a certain extent that's on Loria because it's his guaranteed money he's pledging, but if he were approached time and again by the genius Larry Beinfest to buy out HoF talent for pennies on the theoretical talent dollar and was refused, he'd be able to easily resign, and you know what, the wunderkind would be scooped up by some big money team with a growing disconnect with their own GM. Larry didn't do that, because he hasn't, because that concept is too foreign to him.

[lou]

There is simply just far to much criticism for this front office. And I think you are really dumbing down "winning with Dombrowski's players." If he doesn't do that massive Preston Wilson/Charles Johnson deal - which was absolutely unheard of at the time - and pay Mike Hampton to pitch for Atlanta, we never would have won. He identified and got Dontrelle, who was not a TOP TOP prospect. He got McKeon. He got Urbina at the deadline. I mean, they earned it. Give the guy a little bit of credit for playing the cards dealt to him awesome to turn this into: (1) A World Series in the short term, and long term (2) Hanley Ramirez, and (3) a couple cool other players like Nolasco, Maybin, Miller, Badenhop, Anibal, etc.

What does it matter if he drafted guys that we keep? He is acquiring excellent and cheap talent (Uggla, Ross, Baker, Lindstrom, Cantu, etc) routinely that we keep for years. This is just as good as drafting imo because it fills your MLB needs. So what that some of his draft picks are gone or haven't worked out. I wish he had a better record too and Allison/Hermida worked out, but they just didn't. You forgot West above also, but I'm sure that's an oversight.

Thirdly, would the buyouts have worked? For Cabrera, yes. But when if we bought out Hermida after 2007, or Dontrelle after 2005. Our "gains" from Cabrera would have been "lost" by declaring cash to those two guys for 2008-2010. Granted, I understand Cabrera is special and maybe you go with him in a buyout and the other two not, but do you understand the RISK involved in these contracts? If you have a $70 million payroll, you give all 3 of them a buyout. Because if they mess up, you have $10 million a year to play with and sign cheap veterans (like a Mark Kotsay or Garret Anderson or Greg Zaun, etc) on 1 year deals to make up for your mistake. You can't do this with a $32 million salary because there is -0- room to budge. Because the alternative, is Ross Gload, Wes Helms, Reggie Abercrombie, and Joe Borchard. Cabrera was a mistake, but if you have a buyout philosophy, you "have a buyout philosophy." And that does have it's potential pitfalls. Don't get me wrong, I'm not really defending them for not buying out his arbitration in 2005. But do I understand? Yes. And that's something you don't seem to with all of this constant kicking and screaming about how horrible they are.

Ultimately, we'll see what they do with the stadium. If this nickel and dimeing continues, we'll know. And that sucks for us. But based on Loria doing things like, approving $10 million for Pudge, Delgado contract, $70 million to Hanley, etc. I don't think it's crazy to think that when revenues improve, the payroll/team changes character and we will be keeping the Uggla, Olsen, and Willinghams of the world for an extra 1-3 years as we wait for youth to grow up or until we acquire someone better. So until that happens, can we just be happy we have an excellent young ballclub that has playoff chances if the pitchers grow up?
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Oh, I must acknowledge one of my mistakes.

We got Baker for Jason Stokes.

Clearly not part of the Beinfest acquisition team for trading such a valuable asset in Jason Stokes for Baker. I'd like to thank Dombrowski for leaving us such a wealth of a talent where we could obtain a mid-high 700 OPSing catcher who can't throw out runners. Dombrowski's presence is still over over this transaction and the team.

Fail.

[Jewbility]

I have just one thing to add to the conversation...Lou you keep mentioning the numerous Beinfest "acquisitions/developments" that are still currently on the team; the problem is that most of them wouldn't be key players on just about any other major league roster. I don't know how much credence you can give to front office decisions when it's probably more difficult not to play for this team than it is. Florida keeps offering players 'second chances' (and first chances!) so what does that say about the difficulty in making the team? We either recycle players that other teams once thought were good (b/c we can afford them), add players that are widely regarded as prospects, or get lucky once in a while with one of our own picks. Granted, we have had winning seasons, but if you don't make the playoffs then you have not succeeded. Other than Uggla (which was just a lucky guess), the office hasn't shown a level of foresight that any other team would exhibit if constrained by payroll caps.

[Ramp]

If it means anything lou, it was Baker's second run with the team. Apparently he wasn't cool enough the first time around. Furthermore, we kept him in the minors forever, thus negating all the good he could have done 2 years ago. But I suppose that is nothing argument when we bring people up way too soon and leave people down in the minors that tear shit up.

[Swifty]

Lou, here's the thing, yet again.

Puff up Beinfest for genius moves like Resop for Gregg, yet, just like the trust manager in my earlier analogy, Gregg is turned into a 900 LB injury risk. Yes, maybe at one point you had that $5 million, but it's rapidly eroded. And that's the case with every young player of "value" we get.

Here are the testaments to Beinfest's "brilliance" on the current roster:

Dan Uggla
Jorge Cantu
John Baker

Here's the problem with all 3, we outwardly demonstrated we wanted no part of them as the every day starter. Uggla wouldn't be here if Pokey Reese didn't have a mental breakdown, Cantu was brought in as an afterthought to Jose Castillo (who was promised the job) and McPherson (who was the darkhorse with the chance to win it). And, as ramp stated, Baker was here twice, he wasn't good enough to stick on the 40 man. We got him for nothing, didn't like him enough and waived him, then traded a body for him. I don't know about you, but if I find something on the street, pick it up, look at it, then throw it away only to go out and buy it a week later, I don't think of that as a stroke of genius.

And lastly, Beinfest doesn't make the playoffs or win a title without Dombrowski's team. I think he's overly demonstrated that he cannot build a roster. If you want to argue he has, I'd argue your standards are far too lenient. At some point, you have to make the playoffs on your own to be a genius.