JJ Contract Extension Watch

[MiamiHomer]

Say something good about Baker or BC and a Ramp rep isn't far behind!

[Todd]

Willingham should grace every cover of GQ and Baker should be able to just snap his fingers and get the finest selection of exotic poon to come offer their services free of charge.

[m26555]

ESPN's Jayson Stark says the Marlins are "telling other teams they still believe they'll wind up signing [Josh Johnson] to a long-term deal," despite reaching an apparent impasse in the talks last month. Furthermore, Stark talked to a source who spoke to a Marlins exec who says that the Fish offered three guaranteed years with an easy vesting option for a fourth. If that vesting option is the only real stumbling block, maybe the two sides can reach an agreement.

MLBTR

[PitchingWinsGames]

I was actually thinking in terms of an option... makes sense. Obviously I guess the Marlins want a team option and Sosnick wants at least a mutual option.

[Bobbob1313]

It should be an automatic option based on innings. If their only hold up is whether he'll hold up, then force him to prove he's going to hold up.

[Party]

I agree with Bobbob.

[Swifty]

I also agree that you should make it an option if you can, but you can't ask the player to give a deeply discounted salary AND potentially miss out on what figures to be the heaviest backloaded year.

If you go with a 4th non guaranteed year, his 3 years of guaranteed earnings are going to have to be in the $30 million range for it to make sense for him (and judging by all the dialogue, it seems that's a rather large gap to fill). Otherwise, he'll take his combined $15 mil in arbitration over the next two years and sign a 9 figure contract as a free agent.

[Bobbob1313]

Also include a team option if he doesn't reach those innings marks.
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I agree with Bobbob.

You did this on purpose.

[Swifty]

Team option still wouldn't create an incentive to sign. What you would need to do is either create a lesser valued player option or what amounts to a poison pill for the team option. Say a $12 million team option with a $4 million buyout (so he'd basically have to be dead for us to not pick that up).

[lou]

Team option still wouldn't create an incentive to sign. What you would need to do is either create a lesser valued player option or what amounts to a poison pill for the team option. Say a $12 million team option with a $4 million buyout (so he'd basically have to be dead for us to not pick that up).

Not to pick on hypotheticals, but that would be a very high buyout. I don't think the Marlins would ever do something like that. Shields buyouts vary from $1-2 million, Wainwright doesn't have buyouts just club options, Lester has a $250,000 buyout and options.

I think the magic number is going to be $39 when all is said an done. I think we all like $14 million as the high number in "year 4," so I'd imagine

2010 - $4.5
2011 - $8
2012 - $12.5
2013 - $14 Vesting on 350 innings pitched 2011-2012, or 200+ innings 2012 only, Club option if does not vest, buyout half of what you say at $2 also matching Shields high buyout value

This is

3/$27
4/$39
free agency at 30 so he can still get a massive if he is awesome.

Again, not picking a fight or anything, I just think that $4 buyout would be very high to "shoo" away a player based on how much this deal is worth. I think the answer is making the option vest based on health exclusively. Not performance.

Is $9 million a year cool on a 3 year deal if JJ blows his arm out? If not, he gets higher than Greinke, Wainwright, Lester, and Shields. This seems like a compromise. Add $5 million from the supposed $22 the Marlins offer, Sosnick comes down from his ideal $11 million a year $5 total, to $39 million. And they meet in the middle on an innings pitched incentive that is easy. Maybe it even goes down to 320 innings on combined. Or include playoffs in the innings pitched, where if they make the playoffs once JJ will slam dunk that vesting. Whatever. Make it relatively easily reachable as long as Johnson is throwing a baseball. I can't see how Sosnick can say, you get what you want if you're healthy, and if you're not, you now have $27 million dollars and free agency in the middle of your prime.
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Another contract to think about - Dontrelle (also rep'd by Sosnick).

He got 3/$29 for years 5-6-7. He was also a Super2, so he had a higher bargaining position than JJ and arguably a better career up until that point. So in a vacuum, on 3 years Johnson HAS to be below this year? (Beckett also got 3/$30, a lot of it was upfront through like $8 of it with a signing bonus, and a $12 club option tac'd on the end same years).

So I really like a $26-28 guaranteed number for first 3, and then getting to $39-40 on a vest. That seems pretty rock solid looking at the guys even before Greinke/Wainwright/Shields/Lester. If he's healthy, he gets what he wants and free agency in his prime. If he's not, he gets released at 29, so as long as he get his shit together in ages 30-31, someone would still give him a huge deal at 32. Not losing that potential for a massive contract is the big thing here, and no 3-4 year deal effects this for JJ.

[lou]

How about this Rangers rumor?
December 8, 2009, 4:32 PM
By: Richard Durrett
INDIANAPOLIS -- Walking through the lobby turned up an interesting find. One baseball official says the Texas Rangers offered pitcher Neftali Feliz and first baseman Justin Smoak for Florida's Josh Johnson.

Johnson, an All-Star, had a 15-5 record and a 3.23 ERA last season for Florida. He had 191 strikeouts and 58 walks and opponents batted just .237 against him.

The fact that the Rangers would even consider giving up two of their top prospects for Johnson could show they feel they can win the division the next two seasons and are willing to make a big move to do it.

But I'll be honest: I don't make that move. I think Feliz has shown way too much potential.

http://espn.go.com/d.../_/post/4725755

um.... despite everything said about needing him, if this is anyhow true, I think I take it. I'd never have imagined those two were both on the table.

Then I trade Morrison to Baltimore for another young starter.

[MiamiHomer]

Wow.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

Via Twitter:

JoeFrisaro: #Marlins Not shocking. But Marlins are hopeful to work out a long-term deal with Josh Johnson. Talks could reopen at any time.

[lou]

I'm really happy either way. I'm happy with JJ for 4 years anywhere in $36-44 range. I'm happy if they were to get a super premium double package of Feliz/Smoak if that's true.

Only way I'm not happy is arbitration.

[tjfla]

Texas did make the offer based on them getting rid of Kevin Millwood.However Florida response was we are busy at the moment leading many to think JJ is gonna resign by next season and they are not even bothering with offers for him


The busy at the moment has to do with Dan Uggla. Supposedly Baltimore made an offer which included Felix Pie and pitching prospects