JJ Contract Extension Watch

[Chewford]

What a piece of shit front office. I love the team, but it's really embarrassing to support a franchise whose front office is such a fucking joke. This is apparently our top offseason priority and we go about by making such a crappy offer to one of the absolute best starters in the game?

I guess now we'll trade JJ for some younger players instead to a team that isn't a complete joke and then we can all take about how good we're going to be in a few years when those young guys develop. Then in a few years when we're still a fucking cheap joke, we'll talk about how good we'll be a few years from then. It's hard to build a good team when you refuse to ever give players contracts that they're worth ever.

The community just gave the franchise a state of the art new stadium that opens in a few years and they repay the favor by continuing to be the cheapest pricks in sports. Lovely. I hope Loria and Sampson get sodomized and then mauled to death by angry pandas.

[Beef]

You hope Samson gets sodomized and mauled by angry pandas

[Fishfan79]

We'll also get a better pick in the draft.

Hooray Loria!

which we will use to draft someone that should be drafted a round later and signed for far cheaper than slot instead of overslot like every other team

i canceled my tickets after miggy was traded and really havent minded at all.

[Beef]

than

[Chewford]

It's true.

[Omar]

i know sosnick feels all fuzzy inside by saving the marlins a couple million, and believes that JJ can make 9 figures in the open market.

But does he realized that JJ already had a major surgery and wore down late in the season, and if JJ gets hurt again, he will never touch 8mil a year.

JJ's agent is acting like he is holding all the bargaining chips, but the marlins still have a huge chip on there side, and can offered JJ some security and at the same time, allow him to go crazy in the FA after 3-4 years, when he is still is in his prime.

I really hate sosdick

The whole arm injury thing didn't really keep AJ Burnett's salary down

[emkayseven]

http://riveraveblues.com/2009/11/goi...ig-fish-20278/

Here’s the list of pitchers who struck out at least eight batters per nine innings, walked no more than two-and-a-half batters per nine innings, and got at least three groundballs for every two flyballs in 2009:

1. Josh Johnson

yes, the list ends there.

anyway this article goes on to speculate what the yankees might have to give up for jj:

Looking around at some other instances in which a pitcher of Johnson’s age, caliber, and cost were traded, the return seems to be pretty consistent: two top young players with two or fewer years of service time, plus some lesser prospects. Think Javy Vazquez (the first trade), Dan Haren (the second trade), and Josh Beckett. All three fetched two young stud players plus some lesser prospects. Let’s use that as a blueprint.

As I see it, the Yanks have three players that qualify as true studs: Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Jesus Montero. Austin Jackson is a notch below those guys. As for Joba and Hughes, I think you have to draw a line and make it one or the other, not both. That means Montero has to be included in the deal. Fine. That’s life, you have to give something to get something. The Marlins have been looking for a catcher of the future for years, and Montero would fit that bill. Plus they could always flip him elsewhere. Whatever they end up doing with him, I don’t really care.

Getting back to Joba and Hughes; both have four years of team control left, but Joba has proven more in the big leagues up to this point, primarily by staying healthy as a starter over a full season. I consider both guys to be interchangable, and I don’t really have a preference who stays and who goes. I know it’ll hurt, but think about it, if those guys reach their ceiling, what will they be? Well, pretty much what Josh Johnson is right now. I don’t see how you’d have a problem giving up a young guy that might turn into that kind of a pitcher for a young guy that already is that kind of pitcher. I guess you can let Florida pick between them, then begrudgingly agree to make it sound like they got the guy you want to keep. Whatever, I’m not exactly an expert at negotiating.

As for the rest of the package, I’d make pretty much everyone else in the farm system fair game, plus the younger guys in the big leagues: Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Ramiro Pena, Frankie Cervelli, David Robertson, and Phil Coke. Florida wouldn’t have any interest in Robbie Cano because a) he’s getting expensive (owed $19M over the next two years), and b) they already have a second baseman in Dan Uggla. Even if Uggla’s traded, Rookie of the Year Chris Coghlan would take over at second, his natural position.

Obviously some guys are more valuable than others based on where they are in their careers. K-Rob™ is more valuable than Mark Melancon, Ramiro Pena is more valuable than either Eduardo Nunez or Reegie Corona, etc. You’d prefer to keep the guys already in the big leagues, even if means giving up that one extra second or third tier prospect. Let’s assume that Zach McAllister – who is basically the Yanks’ best starting pitching prospect in the minors – is part of the deal, as is Eduardo Nunez. The names really aren’t important, I’m more concerned about prospect status. Any combination of a Grade-B and a Grade-C prospect will work. If you want to call it Arodys Vizcaino and Abe Almonte, that’s fine with me, I don’t care.

So, is a Johnson for Joba, Montero, McAllister, and Nunez fair? Thanks to the wonderful world of spreadsheets and sabermetrics, we can find out. Using the trade value calculator created by Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score and my WAR/salary assumptions, we can determine that Johnson has a trade value of $52.6M, while Joba is worth $31.8M in a trade. Victor Wang’s research says that top 10 hitting prospects (Montero) are worth $36.5M, Grade-B pitchers (McAllister) $7.3M, and Grade-C hitters age 22 or younger (Nunez) $0.7M. That makes the total value of the Yanks ‘package $76.5M.

So yeah, maybe that package would be overpaying. Perhaps Florida should kick in a prospect, or maybe even one of their nine other arbitration eligible players since they’re looking to unload some of those guys. I’m not going to get hung up on a difference of 45.4% when there are so many assumptions in play. On the surface, that four player package is at least on par with what the Red Sox gave up to get Josh Beckett, if not greater. However, the Yanks aren’t absorbing $18M worth of Mike Lowell, and Josh Johnson now is better than Beckett was then (Beckett’s WAR the year before the trade was 4.0). Beckett just had the added hype of being the second overall pick and a highly touted prospect and World Series MVP. I feel comfortable saying that package is at least in the the ballpark.

[Chewford]

If(when) Uggla is traded, Coghlan won't take over at 2nd(his natural position), that douche Emilio will.

It's good to see that our top off season priority was giving JJ an extension and now there's already trade talk a couple weeks into the off season. We are a quality organization.

[Jay]

If(when) Uggla is traded, Coghlan won't take over at 2nd(his natural position), that douche Emilio will.

It's good to see that our top off season priority was giving JJ an extension and now there's already trade talk a couple weeks into the off season. We are a quality organization.

If Emilio plays gold glove defense at second base like he is advertised to I really don't see a problem with that move if the club doesn't have a good corner outfielder to replace Coughlan after a move to the infield.
Some moves that could be made are sticking Coughlan at third, Boner at second, Gaby at first and signing a plus outfielder but I highly doubt that would happen.

[Metes]

I'm tired of hearing how Bonfuck has this advertised gold glove defense. I missed those advertisements. I'm not okay with giving him the keys because of those supposed advertisements. Prove something.

[FishFanInPA]

It's hard to prove something without actually putting him out there at 2nd.,

[Metes]

2nd and 3rd are pretty similar defensively and he was 2.8 runs below average at 3b last year.

[Bobbob1313]

I don't think anyone here is necessarily endorsing him as a viable starting option, but if he's supposed to be good, it might not be the worst idea to try to maximize our defensive positioning, given our resources.

If it comes down to it and we go into the season with:

Coghlan
Maybin
Ross
Cantu
Hanley
Gaby
Boner
Baker
Paulino
Helms
Gload
Carroll

(which would suck, but which seems pretty likely)

You have a couple of options:

c Baker
1b Gaby
2B Coghlan
SS Hanley
3B Cantu
LF Ross
CF Maybin
RF Carroll

Or:

C Baker
1B Gaby
2B Boner
SS Hanley
3B Cantu
LF Coghlan
CF Maybin
RF Ross

I don't really like either that much, but IF (and it's a big if) Boner is as good as people said when we acquired him, the two lineups aren't really that much different.

I get the feeling we might not be too happy with Carroll as an everyday starter either way.
--------------------

2nd and 3rd are pretty similar defensively and he was 2.8 runs below average at 3b last year.

I don't know if they are all that similar defensively. 2B requires much more range and much less arm strength and reaction time.

[Metes]

But you're missing my point. He sucks.

[Bobbob1313]

Oh, ok.