Offseason Discussion - The Bullpen and How it Will Suck

[BigGameFish]

Adding Calero and Gregg to Nunez at the back end, along with competition from Sanches, Badenhop, Turnbow/Veras/McClung and all the other AAA guys for middle relief roles, would make the bullpen close to sexy.

So it's probably too good to be true.

agreed

[wanks1212]

In other bullpen news, while the Marlins did reach out to former closer Kevin Gregg, don't look for a reunion. Gregg has received more lucrative offers from other clubs and is believed to be close to signing with either the Rockies or Blue Jays.

http://blogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports...ty-remote.html

[emkayseven]

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog..._eric_baseball

A few weeks ago, I gave my early 2010 rankings for the top 25 fantasy baseball relief pitchers, and I've made just a few adjustments to them since then, as not much has happened. I mean, this endless "Johnny Damon Watch" -- where will he not be going today? -- doesn't really affect bullpens. Let's just say he just doesn't have the arm to close.

However, 25 is not 30, which means five teams' closer situations were not accounted for in my nice and neat top 25 rankings. Well, I've addressed that to the right: My top 25 has been expanded to the top 30. (And thanks to you folks who "reminded" me that there are 30 major league teams. See, we can learn from one another!) Also remember I maintain a fantasy-centric closer chart with each team's bullpen laid out.

Anyway, one of those five teams not represented previously was the Florida Marlins. It's not that I didn't know what their situation was; I just chose not to rank their closer, Leo Nunez, in the top 25. It's pretty easy to be skeptical of Nunez to repeat his good fortune from 2009, and if I were to include set-up relievers, Nunez wouldn't even make my top 30. I have 13 reasons. Actually, make that 13 plus one.

Nunez allowed 13 home runs, which is a ton for a relief pitcher, especially one who managed to remain effective enough to garner 26 saves. No full-time relief pitcher in baseball allowed more homers (although Kevin Gregg and Jensen Lewis allowed the same number). Nunez also blew seven saves, had an ERA over 4.00 and was an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and his batting average on balls in play was exceedingly low (.249). Nunez was lucky to have the success he had. I can only imagine how many home runs he would have allowed at Yankee Stadium, as opposed to spacious Sun Life Stadium! Generally, pitchers don't get that lucky two seasons in a row, and the Marlins seem to realize this, as Nunez now has more-experienced company beside him in the bullpen.

Therein lies my other reason for doubt. This franchise changes closers the way parents change their baby's diapers. Those who invest in Nunez will find that out the hard way. In the past 24 hours, the Marlins signed Seth McClung and are said to be close to bringing back former closer Kevin Gregg (speaking of home runs!). We can mock this potential competition, but it certainly exists, especially when ninth-inning change is the theme in South Florida. The San Diego Padres employed two closers from 1994 through 2008. Trevor Hoffman, originally a Marlin, was the closer each season except 2003, when Rod Beck did the job (with Hoffman out). The Marlins, on the other hand, have had seven different save leaders in just the past eight seasons. Gregg was the lone repeater, and I could see him signing with the Marlins and leading the team again.

I ranked Nunez at No. 30, and it's worth noting that every potential closer has value, even if I think his hold on the ninth-inning job is awfully tenuous. Saves are saves. But if Gregg signs with the Marlins, he'll be ranked in the mid-30s, and I'd consider him one of the leading middle-relief options to get a chance for saves. Incidentally, McClung has always thrown hard, though his walk rate is atrocious. Maybe he pushes himself into the picture, too. It could also be Derrick Turnbow (speaking of throwing hard, and walking hitters), Dan Meyer, Burke Badenhop, Brian Sanches or even Bryan Harvey! Hmm, wonder what the franchise's very first closer has been up to lately? Prospect Jose Ceda -- acquired in the deal that sent Gregg to the Cubs prior to the 2009 season -- missed all of 2009 because of shoulder problems, but I wouldn't rule him out, either. Kiko Calero (one home run allowed in 60 innings) would have been a superior choice in 2009, or even now. Hey, nothing would shock me with this franchise.

Draft Nunez at your own risk. Given his ghastly home run rate, there's no guarantee he even starts the season as the closer.

Karabell's top 30:

1. Mariano Rivera, Yankees
2. Joe Nathan, Twins
3. Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
4. Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
5. Joakim Soria, Royals
6. Francisco Rodriguez, Mets
7. Huston Street, Rockies
8. Francisco Cordero, Reds
9. Jose Valverde, Tigers
10. Heath Bell, Padres
11. Trevor Hoffman, Brewers
12. Andrew Bailey, Athletics
13. David Aardsma, Mariners
14. Brian Wilson, Giants
15. Bobby Jenks, White Sox
16. Brian Fuentes, Angels
17. Ryan Franklin, Cardinals
18. Kerry Wood, Indians
19. Billy Wagner, Braves
20. Frank Francisco, Rangers
21. Rafael Soriano, Rays
22. Chad Qualls, Diamondbacks
23. Carlos Marmol, Cubs
24. Mike Gonzalez, Orioles
25. Brad Lidge, Phillies
26. Jason Frasor, Blue Jays
27. Matt Capps, Nationals
28. Brandon Lyon, Astros
29. Octavio Dotel, Pirates
30. Leo Nunez, Marlins

[wanks1212]

gregg signs with toronto

[Bobbob1313]

From BaseballProspectus:

Signed RHPs Derrick Turnbow and Jose Veras to minor-league deals. [1/29]
Signed RHP Seth McClung to a minor-league contract. [2/2]
All three of the most-recently minted Fish have had their moments in big-league bullpens, all of them have reputations as hard throwers, and any one or all three of them could be the latest retread success stories with the Fish. Turnbow lost time to a slightly torn labrum in '08, and got cut loose by the Rangers' organization early in May last year after asking for his release, and did not pitch for the remainder of the season. McClung is a gargantuan utility pitcher of sorts; he was plugged into a starting role with the Brewers in 2008 to middling results (1.5 SNLVAR and five QS in 12 turns), and chipped in a little as a reliever to good effect (0.673 WXRL) that same season before struggling in 2009 (0.308).

The Marlins' approach to staffing their pen, taking it on faith that they'll be able to cobble something together, has served them reasonably well in recent seasons:


Pen MLB MLB MLB
Year IP SV+HLD BS WXRL Rank ARP Rank FRAr Rank "Stars"
2007 586.2 153 25 8.81 15 43.3 12 4.34 12 Gregg, Gardner, Lindstrom, Tankersley
2008 519.1 125 25 7.90 14 22.9 14 4.44 12 Lindstrom, Pinto, Gregg, Rhodes
2009 543.1 147 24 8.32 14 17.7 20 4.44 16 Lindstrom, Calero, Meyer, Nunez

FRAr: Fair Run Average, relievers only
Churn isn't a whole lot of fun to talk up as a virtue for its own sake, but in an industry where expensive mistakes get made on relief pitching, the Marlins have been the definition of dull probity, treating relievers as fungible without getting a whole lot of sabermetric street cred for their troubles, and yet consistently delivering an adequate bullpen cobbled together from relievers of little note before (or after). I don't think their world's going to end with Matt Lindstrom's dispatch, any more than it did when Kevin Gregg was traded, or Arthur Lee Rhodes. Instead, you can expect them to sift through their latest collection of interesting pegs, and whether this year's relief heroes are add-ons via trade (Leo Nunez, Renyel Pinto, Jose Ceda, Hunter Jones), or discards like Dan Meyer or McClung or Turnbow or Brian Sanches, or even the rare homegrown product like Tim Wood or Ryan Tucker, if there's one thing I'm reasonably confident about, it's not about any one of those guys, it's that the Fish will wind up with a thoroughly OK bullpen.

[THE_REAL_MIBS]

(We don't have a rotation discussion thread and this does mention the bullpen so I figured I put it here)

To hear the front office talk about the state of the Marlins’ starting rotation, it almost sounds like that old saying from the 1948 Boston Braves staff — “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.” But I don’t think the Marlins’ situation in 2010 will turn out to be “Johnson and Nolasco and then a fiasco.” (Hey, at least it rhymes…)

Yes, six starters will compete for the final three rotation spots when camp opens next weekend. But the call here is that Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez get two of those spots.

Volstad, the organization’s top draft pick in 2005, is too talented to implode in 2010 — those 29 home runs in 29 starts last year, be damned! He’ll be the pet project of new pitching coach Randy St. Claire, who has been working with Volstad already to refine his delivery so it improves the efficiency of his sinker ball. If Volstad can do that along with add a slider to his arsenal, watch out.

The other interesting guy is Sanchez, who will arrive in camp with something he hasn’t had in Jupiter in a long time — peace of mind! Sanchez’s shoulder problems, which landed him on the DL twice last year, appear to be over. Look at how he bounced back last year, after returning Aug. 21 from his final stint on the DL: He posted a 2.86 ERA he rest of the way, which was third lowest among NL pitchers down the stretch over that period.

The final spot will be interesting. The Marlins would like to add a lefty to go with four other right-handers. But Andrew Miller and Sean West still have much to prove. Miller could end up with a bullpen spot.

But keep an eye on right-hander Rick VandenHurk, who posted a 3.33 ERA in September. “VandenHurk, more than anybody in September, improved his status,” Marlins baseball operations president Larry Beinfest said on Tuesday.

Don’t expect “Johnson and Nolasco and then a fiasco” for Florida Marlins rotation

[FishFanInPA]

dear god no...Miller in the Pen? ugh

[Beef]

Why does that have to be such a bad thing? Do other people here think that would necessarily be a bad thing especially compared to him otherwise being in the rotation? I ask because Fippa just says stuff but most of the time it is just to say stuff.

[FishFanInPA]

If he can't succeed in a longer stint, why should I have faith in him in a tight spot?

[Metes]

Perhaps for the same reasons you would trust Matt Lindstrom in a tight spot

[Bobbob1313]

If he can't succeed in a longer stint, why should I have faith in him in a tight spot?

Because a lot of guys are much better in the pen where they can fully exert themselves for 20 pitches and go max effort.

[Fritz]

If he can't succeed in a longer stint, why should I have faith in him in a tight spot?

Fip, remember that Eric Gagne fella?

[emkayseven]

to be fair, he took steroids

[nny]

Mo' Rivera, No problems

[CrimsonCane]

If he can't succeed in a longer stint, why should I have faith in him in a tight spot?

Remember ladies and gentleman, he's the only one of us on this message board who gets paid for wonderful insights like this.