Frisaro: 2010 Payroll Will Be ~$36 Million

[Swifty]

You know what, if they say they're doing it just because they like making money, I think I'd be more OK with it than pretending they're losing money, when the overwhelming empirical evidence suggests they're a top 5 money making franchise.

[m26555]

Well, they already traded Hermida. Uggla and Cantu are likely gone. No more Nick Johnson(even though he cost pennies it wont be a new expense in 2009). Nolasco likely wont make a big jump with his awful first half. Its really not unreasonable to think the payroll will be $36 million or less.

Uggla AND Cantu? I highly doubt we move both of them.

[SFiercex4]

Uggla AND Cantu? I highly doubt we move both of them.

I don't. Uggla is most certainly gone, so the question becomes whether they'll get rid of Cantu. I think that mostly depends on whether the team thinks it can find someone in or out of house to cover 3B (1B if they think Sanchez can cover 3B). I think you can find someone to do the job Cantu does at a good deal less than $5M. I hope the Marlins can see that too.

[emkayseven]

@Buster_ESPN Spoken with teams about Florida's arb.-eligible trade bait, and there clearly is major interest in Jorge Cantu and Ricky Nolasco.

wasn't sure where else to post that. not sure why we'd entertain trading nolasco

[FishFanInPA]

ugh, please no.

[Fritz]

This allows the FA to put Bonifacio in the starting pitching rotation where his bat is almost good enough to play every five days.

[m26555]

I doubt we're seriously considering moving Nolasco. We're just listening to offers like every team does (and should) for every one of their players.

[lou]

Here's a hypothetical. Let's say Nolasco gets you Mat Gamel + prospects. Or "insert any big young 3B prospect type here that's club controlled." (I like Gamel though, for lefty reasons, and because they don't need him because they really like McGhee). Cantu and Uggla are expendable for obvious reasons. Let's say you package them to the O's and get a pitcher. Or whatever, you just some sort of pitcher that can pitch right now.

C John Baker $415,000
1B Gaby Sanchez $405,000
2B Chris Coghlan $410,000
3B Mat Gamel $415,000
SS Hanley Ramirez $7,000,000
LF Cody Ross $4,200,000
CF Cameron Maybin $405,000
RF Brett Carroll $415,000
B X
B X $950,000
B Emilio Bonifacio $415,000
B Wes Helms $950,000
B Ronny Paulino $900,000

SP Josh Johnson $5,500,000
SP Andrew Miller $2,000,000
SP Chris Volstad $415,000
SP Anibal Sanchez $1,200,000
SP Seat West $415,000
RP Matt Lindstrom $1,650,000
RP Reynel Pinto $850,000
RP Dan Meyer $415,000
RP Rick Vanden Hurk $415,000
RP Brian Sanches $415,000
RP Burke Badenhop $415,000
RP Tim Wodd $415,000

$30,985,000

Trading - Uggla, Cantu, Nunez, and Amezaga for exclusive pitching to replace above or hang out in AA/AAA.

$31 million. for 23 in house players right there. Even if we match 2009 payroll, that's $6 million to spend, but if it's going up more to the $40s, we could theoretically get a starting pitcher for $6-8 million a year, get some veteran RF for $2 million, and throw Gload a $1 to bust a Gload. We're talking low $40 millions if that. And if you really want to start "blowing shit up," how about trading Dominguez right now to get another pitcher who can play now cause 3B is locked up for at least 3 years to see if Gamel develops in full.

---

I'm just saying. I don't even view this as bad at all with the inclusion of Nolasco. I'd prefer to keep him and hope he figures it out, but to play devil's advocate he has A LOT of negative mileage on his arm being brought back from injury and then throwing 220, and then having an incredibly stressful 2009. Not to mention he tanked half the year.

If they can figure out how to use money elsewhere and trade off literally everything, I don't think it really effects the bottom line. Resigning Johnson is top priority. Acquiring more young pitching is the next. If they are able to do that, and just throw Brad Penny $7 million for 2010, why not? This team above still makes or breaks on the development of the Volstad/West/Miller starting pitching no matter what we do.

[Bobbob1313]

Does San Fran still do Cantu for Sanchez this offseason?

I'd be all about that.

[lou]

Does San Fran still do Cantu for Sanchez this offseason?

I'd be all about that.

Imagine that in the scenario above. Throw him into the rotation, one of Miller/West into the pen, and then go find an outfielder. Plus you still have Uggla and Nunez to trade, and that's bringing back at least 1 serious player, and probably 2 useful "b" roll players.

Kind of dig it actually. Our core is certainly Hanley/Johnson/Coghlan/Maybin/Volstad/West/and I guess Miller. As long as they work around that, why the fuck not?

[m26555]

I don't know...

I just have a major problem with trading a pitcher who can strike out 10+ batters in a game with relative ease. Nolasco really is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game when he is on, and he was on A LOT after returning from the minors last season.

[Bobbob1313]

Imagine that in the scenario above. Throw him into the rotation, one of Miller/West into the pen, and then go find an outfielder. Plus you still have Uggla and Nunez to trade, and that's bringing back at least 1 serious player, and probably 2 useful "b" roll players.

Kind of dig it actually. Our core is certainly Hanley/Johnson/Coghlan/Maybin/Volstad/West/and I guess Miller. As long as they work around that, why the fuck not?

If Cantu nets Sanchez, I'm trading Miller with Uggla for (hopefully) an outfielder (Baltimore has Reimold, who I like) and a B- pitcher or something and I'm rolling with this:

C Baker
1B Gaby
2B Coghlan
SS Hanley
3B Gamels
LF Reimold
CF Maybin
RF Cody

SP JJ
SP Anibal
SP JSanch
SP West
SP Volstad

I mean, if there's an injury, you're kind of screwed, unless you grab a pitcher in the trade who can do a reasonable impersonation of a 5th starter.

I'm not sure what Uggla and Miller get in a deal, but I imagine it's not a terrible haul. And I like the potential for that team right there.

[lou]

That team is like $32 bills once you sub out Miller's 2 million to Sanchez's arbitration, so we could go out and get a Pavano/Penny on a likely 1 year deal for $5-7 million, and buy two bench hitters for $1-2 million each.

And I mean, that is really really nice on paper. Granted this could all be achieved simply keeping Nolasco, doing that Uggla/Miller trade and being a little cheaper on the bench, but the end result is still the same. Building around Hanley, Maybin, Coghlan, J. Johnson, Volstad, West, etc. Just have to mix and match the parts around them, and if you secure another longterm piece in the process, awesome.

[Bobbob1313]

Well, I like the trading Nolasco for Gamel and bringing in a Reimold, because you've just locked up two potentially excellent pieces well into the stadium, whereas Nolasco, Uggla, and (maybe) Miller will all be gone by the time the stadium opens, more than likely.

If we want to emphasize building a team long term that will have recognizable faces in the stadium, I would be a big fan of these types of moves.

Opening day in the stadium, best case scenario you are looking at a lineup like this:

C Baker
1B Logan
2B Coghlan
SS Hanley
3B Gamel
LF Reimold (Or, you know, whatever similarly young talented outfielder you net for Uggla and Miller)
CF Maybin
RF Stanton

I mean, it's a little pie in the sky, but that is potentially killer to go into the stadium with. And it frees you up to put Dominguez into a trade too.

Does Uggla, Dominguez, and Miller get you a good young cost controlled outfielder and a pretty good pitching prospect? I would expect it does. The question would be who?

And, of course, you would also have to deal with the idiots yelling "fire sale"...

[wanks1212]

The Marlins can't go into 2010 with a rotation behind JJ of Miller, Anibal, West, and Volstad and legitimately hope to be a playoff team. I mean they can, but that's counting on at least 3 of Miller, West, Anibal, and Volstad to provide 160+ innings of high quality pitching. Considering the injury, inconsistency, and general suckitude issues that have popped up at times with all of them, counting on more than 2 of them to make it through the season as high-quality starters is setting themselves up for disaster.

Now, if they make all the trades Lou and Bob are proposing and use the savings to bring in a quality veteran, the rotation is a little more palatable, because then the Marlins are protected if one of Miller, West, Volstad, and Sanchez get injured or suck and another one is a mediocre back of the rotation pitcher (and that's still counting on two of the four to produce, but that's a reasonable risk based on what the organization's working with payroll-rise).

But without that other starter behind JJ, whether it's Nolasco or a veteran signee, the rotation will probably implode. At the least, it's a huge gamble that's not worth taking if this team wants to seriously compete and not draw Loria's ire for again failing to make the playoffs with baseball's lowest payroll.